Sharktistical Analysis: Shots on Goal and Shots Allowed
As a research economist, I crunch numbers on a daily basis.
I know, it's scintillating.
However, I do enjoy running analysis and doing projections on sports data, and I'm hoping to make a recurring series of articles on Fear the Fin regarding current and historic Sharks numbers and stats.
In other threads, I've been discussing shots on goal at length. It seems as if the Sharks are operating at a frantic pace, shooting the puck more this season than I can remember in previous years.
To further study this, I created a statistic which I call the SHG ratio, or SHGr. This is the shots on goal per game divided by the shots on goal against per game. I thought this would be a more effective measure of team dominance than simply counting the amount of shots per game, as a team who shoots in bunches is also capable of allowing multiple shots. Therefore, the SHGr is not simply a measure of amount of shots, but instead a measure of what percent you outshoot your opponent. It is immune to amount of shots, as your SHGr will be equal if you outshoot your opponent 20-10 or 40-20.
Historically, the team with the highest SHGr finishes in the top 10 in points, and most likely will have scored over 100 points during the course of a season. here are the top SHGr teams, with their corresponding point total and NHL standing over the past 8 seasons.
| Year | Team | SHGr | P | NHL Rank |
| 2007-2008 | DET* | 1.463 | 115 | 1 |
| 2006-2007 | DET | 1.374 | 113 | 1 |
| 2005-2006 | DET | 1.282 | 124 | 1 |
| 2004-2005 | Lockout | |||
| 2003-2004 | NJD | 1.217 | 100 | 10 |
| 2002-2003 | NJD* | 1.343 | 108 | 4 |
| 2001-2002 | STL | 1.289 | 98 | 6 |
| 2000-2001 | STL | 1.288 | 103 | 6 |
| 1999-2000 | STL | 1.348 | 114 | 1 |
* indicates cup winner.
In fact, no team with a SHGr over 1.200 has missed the playoffs. The Stanley Cup winner has historically been in the top 5 in SHGr.
Why is this so important? Well, because the Sharks currently lead the league with an SHGr of 1.495, the highest SHGr in recent history. Even though we see some problems with the high pace of the offense, we can take some comfort in the fact that we are on a historic pace, and the numbers don't lie.
So far, McLellan has successfully brought the style of hockey that the Red Wings employ over to the Sharks. If SHGr is indeed the measure of a good team, than the Red Wings are the standard... until now.
SHGr is not a determinant of who wins the cup, however, it is a indicator of the strength of your team. Hopefully the Sharks can retain their sharp play, and I will keep you updated on their SHGr throughout the season. This will not only require them to shoot, but to limit the opposition's chances as well. I know, duh.
This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.
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Comments
It gets put there by the admins.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Because it's good stuff.
As the admin, it’s my duty to make sure this is the best blog possible. A large part of that is something I’ve said more than once. There are a whole lot of people who are more knowledgable about hockey in general and the Sharks in particular than I am, plus they’re willing to share this online. I have at least some writing skills, but I’m more than willing to share this space.
by Diecast Dude on Oct 25, 2008 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions
This is awesome, and good news!
Out of curiosity, how did you format that table so nicely?
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski
Seriously? I’m going to have to give that a try, thanks!
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Neglectful father of David Quinowski

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