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Sharktistical Analysis: A Look At Previous Cup Winners

With Thursday's upcoming game against Anaheim, and the Sharks "tying" the 1943-44 Canadiens for the best start in the history of the league, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the last two Cup winners record through 27 games.

However, I would like to note that we are only about a third of the way into an 82 game regular season. And as we are all painfully aware*, the Sharks have had a large amount of wins during these type of games during the past few years- it's the last 16 that seem to elude our grasp.

Another point that should be made is that the last half of the season generally carries more weight when looking at a team's performance going into playoff time. Rest assured we will re-touch upon this again at a later date, whenever is most convenient. That would be the period in the day when I've chased those damn kids off my lawn (little brats never do learn), and have some free time before watching Maury figure out who fathered Valerie's baby. My money's on Kyle, although Lenny looks pretty fertile.

* If the slogan "Where The Second Round Is Overrated" means nothing to you it's likely that you are in the wrong place. Adjust your reading habits accordingly- although world news is fairly disheartening most of the time as well. Maybe if the Sharks can win 8 games in the playoffs world hunger will cease to exist. That'd be a correlation I could live with.

Star-divide

Without further adieu (thanks for making the jump!), let's take a glance at the 06-07 Anaheim Ducks and the 07-08 Detroit Red Wings.

Team Record GF GA Goal Dif. PP % PK % Shot Dif.
06-07 Anaheim

19-2-6

44 pts.

94

3.48

61

2.26

3.48-2.26

1.22

32/149

21.48%

18/129

86.05%

904-724

+180

07-08 Detroit

19-6-2

40 pts.

89

3.30

62

2.30

3.30-2.30

1.00

31/134

23.13%

19/134

85.82%

931-615

+316

08-09 San Jose

22-3-2

46 pts.

100

3.70

64

2.37

3.70-2.37

1.33

32/139

23.02%

17/105

83.8%

974-692

+282

* An astute fellow may notice the NHL standings board has the Sharks at 102 goals, while my table has them with 100. All shootout game winners have been omitted.

There's some slight hindrances on what we can reasonably say about the comparison amongst the three, considering the data comes from different situations. For example, power play opportunities are up league-wide this season (although the Sharks power play opportunities don't seem to be drastically different when compared to Detroit and Anaheim) and the addition of having a faceoff in the offensive zone after a penalty is called has resulted in an increase of power plays converted. The rosters themselves aren't applicable (we won't be playing these teams), strength of schedule is different (in 06-07 I think the Stars had 100+ points and finished third in the division), and a whole multitude of other shit has probably changed as well.

All caveats aside, there are some things that are worth mentioning:

1) The Sharks record hasn't benefited from "soft" points*. The 06-07 Anaheim team seemed to get a points boost for losing games in the shootout/overtime (by and far the worst rule of all time, and not just because it paid dividends for the Ducks in the first 27 games of their Cup-year). If you compare the Sharks to both teams in this regard, it's fairly obvious that we're playing some great hockey. Not that we didn't already know that.

*In fact, you could even make the case that (in the two games where the Sharks earned a point for a loss), San Jose outplayed their opponent for that night. An unlucky bounce off Ehrhoff's skate against Edmonton, and a ridiculous performance from Dan Ellis against Nashville played a large part in those losses. The Sharks completely outplayed both teams for damn near the duration of all 60 minutes- if there was ever a case for having the "one point for a loss rule", that would be Exhibit A and B.

2) Goals, goals, goals**. The Sharks outscore teams at a large rate when compared to their predecessors, although we are giving up more goals. This may cause a problem later on down the line as games tighten up defensively, but the differential is so large I don't think much will change as long as we stay healthy and the forwards continue to keep to the offensive ideals- shooting off the rush and driving two forwards to the net.

** Hum "Girls, Girls, Girls" by Motley Crue while you read that line. Someone should do a Sharks cover of that song (while leaving out the whole home video on a boat escapade).

3) If there is one area the Sharks can improve on it would have to be the PK. I'd like to attribute the slight shortcomings to the fact Torrey Mitchell has been out all season long, but let's not forget the lack of Rivet, Brown, and Rismiller on our shorthanded unit. Those players were some key cogs in the machine. Even with Pavelski and Marleau stepping in nicely to fill in the forward slots (hell even Michalek while we're at it), you would be hard pressed to convince me Rob Blake is an upgrade over Craig Rivet. It's not even near being a problem (9th in the league as of this morning), but it should be something we look at closely as the season drags on.

Both Anaheim and Detroit had excellent penalty killing in the postseason during their respective title years; it's something the Sharks have lacked during the playoffs. In fact, I would allocate a lot of Anaheim's success in 06-07 to their shorthanded unit- the ability to kill penalties regularly allowed them to play with more physicality than is usually advised in games where momentum (and goals) can turn the tide of a series in a heartbeat. It wore down their opponents physically and mentally, creating an aura of invincibility. "We're going to take liberties and not pay the price."

Although Detroit's path lacked the brutality of Anaheim's, that aura of invincibility always seems to come into play once you face the red and white. Look no further than game four in 2007- Holmstrom bats the puck out of the air with less than 10 seconds left in the second to put Detroit within one, and Lang ties the game with 30 ticks to go in the third to force overtime. Talk about big-time.

Pronger_hit_may_15_medium

I was livid and thrilled when this happened; talk about a paradox

 

Yada Yada: The Sharks seem to be holding up well to the Cup-winners of year's past, and although the chart is not terribly revealing on what sort of playoff success will be achieved by this club, it's difficult to find a troubling area that may be masked by their extraordinary record through the first 27 games. I doubt the current pace will be upheld (139 points is an absolutely insane expectation), and while the PK may be the biggest concern on a team with virtually none to speak of, Torrey Mitchell's return in a month or so will give the shorthanded team some relief and possibly decrease Patty's minutes (which would pay off towards the end of the year).

All in all, things look good.

 

Go Sharks.

H/T to Earl Sleek of BOC for his season-by-season spreadsheet which was used to compile Anaheim and Detroit's numbers.

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Wow...

Great stuff. You are the man.

I’d like to see the Sharks get better on the PK as well, but that’s like wishing I had a sports car that could also fly. I’m fine with just the sports car, as long as it doesn’t break down.

Wow, I’ve been pretty poor with the analogies lately.

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by TCY on Dec 10, 2008 8:04 AM PST reply actions  

I actually think that’s a pretty good one- the PK can get us places, and although you could soup up the engine a tad, it’s performing up to par.

Better than the infamous “mama bird” at any rate :)

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 10, 2008 8:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Classic.

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by TCY on Dec 10, 2008 8:32 AM PST up reply actions  

The Sharks record hasn’t benefited from “soft” points*.

I would argue that they have, but my definition of “soft points” is different from yours. To me, the extra point for “winning” OT and SO skills competitions is what should be considered soft — those are situations that don’t exist in the postseason, at any rate.

To me, the point earned for not losing in 5-on-5 regulation is significant in projecting postseason success; the extra point earned after sixty minutes is not. Go ahead and call loser points “soft” if you want, but know this — since the lockout the team with the most shootout wins has yet to win a playoff round. That winner point seems to me to be the excessive one, not the one earned in 60 minutes of standard hockey.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Dec 10, 2008 8:46 AM PST reply actions  

I agree with the definition on shootout points, but felt that two shootout wins didn’t need to be addressed- it’s not a large part of the team’s current point standing (i.e. they aren’t racking up wins in the skills comp). For the record, I’m firmly on board with that.

I’ve gone back and forth on attempting to figure out how much weight I should throw into overtime wins over the last couple months, and haven’t really come up with a definitive answer. The fact that it’s 4v4, more open-ended, and has a higher rate of scoring (that’s only a presumption, though) does discredit it a bit, but a “pressure” situation (playing for a single point) might have some indicator on overall team success in the future. I’ll try and take a look at different team’s overtime winning %‘s later today and see if there’s any trends with standing points etc. Feel free to fire those in here if you have em Sleek.

Oh, and I completely forgot to mention you sending the data sheet used to compile this from the last three years. Feel like a bum. I’ll add your name in the post (with a link to BOC too!)

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 10, 2008 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, two shootout wins is nothing to worry about — I’d agree there. Still, I guess my point was on the characterization of Anaheim’s loser points as seeming somewhat artificial or asterisk-y.

I guess my take is that if there were two teams meeting in the playoffs, and one got there despite a miserable OT/SO record, and one got there because of an awesome OT/SO record, I’d put my money on the team that earned its points in the first 60 minutes. For the record, the Ducks went 4-10 in shootouts their cup year; the Red Wings went 5-5 their cup year — neither was very stellar in the circus portion of the game.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Dec 10, 2008 9:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, two shootout wins is nothing to worry about — I’d agree there. Still, I guess my point was on the characterization of Anaheim’s loser points as seeming somewhat artificial or asterisk-y.

Nothing asterisk-y about a Stanley Cup.

Now excuse me while I go vomit.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 10, 2008 9:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Nothing asterisk-y about a Stanley Cup.

Tell that to the Buffalo Sabres (coughHull’sFootInCreasecough).

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Dec 10, 2008 11:14 AM PST up reply actions  

Goals goals goals

That’s pretty funny – as was the bit about Maury.

+1 to you now, sir.

by Mr. K. on Dec 10, 2008 9:46 AM PST reply actions  

Good piece about how the sharks stack up against the previous cup winners...

but unfortunately this isn’t college football, and the regular season just mean that much. Lets wait and see if the Sharks can do it in the playoffs this year, until then lets just hope this team keeps on improving everyday in practice and games. Personally, I think this team has what it takes to make a good playoff run because it is a much different team than in different years. Just take for example Drew always points out when Joe goes to the net because it is just not something he would have done in the past. Erhoff and Vlasic have embraced this new system in which the d are more involved in the offense, I like Vlasic on the point in deflection plays and off-net plays, he is just such a smart player.

by mattman on Dec 10, 2008 10:19 AM PST reply actions  

but unfortunately this isn’t college football, and the regular season just mean that much.

Well, it’s been a new era since the lockout — rule changes, salary caps, etc. — so I think it’s still a bit early to decide on how much regular seasons can predict cup winners. In the last two seasons, though, it has been quite excellent. Pretty much the two teams that played the best in the regular season each year went on to win the cup.

Is it foolproof? Certainly not — tons can happen in a seven game series. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a good indicator (or at least it’s too early in the salary cap era to say that yet).

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Dec 10, 2008 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Not so much for the Sharks

they have consistently lost to teams they were better than in the playoffs over the years, that is just how it has been here in San Jose.

by mattman on Dec 10, 2008 10:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Think happy thoughts, mattman

And then get some fairy dust so we can fly away – to see the Sharks campaign for the Cup on the road.

by Mr. K. on Dec 10, 2008 11:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, but that doesn’t have anything to do with the team this year. Those teams lost series they should have won. This is a new team, the old teams don’t apply.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 10, 2008 11:19 AM PST up reply actions  

That is not my point

my point is that the regular season doesn’t matter if you can’t get it done in the playoffs, bottom line.

by mattman on Dec 10, 2008 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

hey, i said this in one of my fanposts

i just didn’t use 1,000,000 words to explain. more like 15.

by serrapadre716 on Dec 10, 2008 5:11 PM PST reply actions  

You compared this year’s Sharks to previous Cup winners as well? Sweeet. I’ll check it out but could you link it for me, my browser isn’t showing the fanpost and fanshot sections right now.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 10, 2008 10:57 PM PST up reply actions  

here goes you.

it’s here

a couple things, i used about 3 lines of words and i didn’t spaze out on the stats. i kept it simple…really really simple, but what did you expect from a sophmore in high school?

by serrapadre716 on Dec 11, 2008 5:07 PM PST up reply actions  

World hunger would cease...

…because the Sharks fans could donate their hundreds of thousands of free Round Table personal pan pizzas to be sent around the globe, after each 4+ goal home game. The only bad part – there won’t be so many home games, since we’ll (clears throat) sweep. Now THAT’S what I’m talking ’bout.

by Mr. K. on Dec 11, 2008 3:28 PM PST reply actions  

Sharks not the only one's open for comparison

First let me state for the record that I’m a Sharks fan. Having said that…

Everyone pretty much expected the Sharks to put up big numbers, as you said it’s always the last 16 wins that has everyone in ‘wait and see’ mode before they get high on the Sharks. But the Boston Bruins are right there with the Sharks statistically, so if you threw them up there (as well as the current Red Wings team) we’d see a pretty tight 3 way race. I posted a few stats on my sharks blog if anyone is interested.

by sfguy808 on Dec 12, 2008 12:07 AM PST reply actions  

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