Sharktistical Analysis: Neither Grier nor there
by TCY on Dec 30, 2008 7:48 AM PST
in Statistical Analysis
34 comments
Recently, no one (besides me) has taken more crap here at FTF than Mike Grier. Problems with Grier include empty net misses, bad passes, bad positioning, and poor offensive awareness. Grier has gotten a truckload of criticism around these parts lately.
However, I don't want to just keep ragging on the guy. I like Grier. He's been a pretty solid player for us over the years and is one of my favorite Sharks. Therefore, I decided to do a little digging to see how Grier is really doing, statistically.
Basic Stats: Grier's 14 points make him 11th on the Sharks in scoring, not too shabby. He's currently on ice for about 14 minutes a game, and plays about 2 minutes of that game time on the PK. On the surface, Grier looks like a pretty decent player.
Advanced Stats: Thanks to behindthenet.com, stat nerds like me are able to dig deeper into a players overall performance. Although Grier's basic stats look O.K., his advanced stats tell a somewhat different story.
Grier's Corsi Number sits at 0.8, which is third lowest on the Sharks. (Only McGinn and Armstrong have a lower Corsi number, partly due to their relatively low ice time and line assignment) For those of you unfamiliar with Corsi numbers, an explanation can be found here.
Grier has also become less physical this year, as his propensity for shot blocking has dropped considerably. Grier is currently blocking 1.4 shots every 60 minutes, down half a shot from last year. The league average sits at about 2.5 blocked shots per game.
When Grier is on the ice, team production drops; that's not just based on the Corsi number, either. Per 60 minutes, the team scores 1.93 goals when Grier is on the ice, and 2.71 when he's not. The team also shoots less on average when Grier is on ice, putting up just 29.6 shots/60 minutes. In Grier's defense, however, the Sharks are scored against much less when he is playing (1.63 G/60 when he's on ice, 2.24 when he's not).
Conclusion: It's kind of a mixed bag for Grier. Although he's still scoring and has been playing good defense, he's not generating much offense (according to the Corsi metric). He has definitely benefited from the occasional playing time on lines 1 and 2, and is getting alot of help from his defense and the goalies.
Although it's tough for me to say, I believe Grier should be moved down to line 4. He's so big and so physical; I think he would be a bigger asset in a checking/stopper type of role. I still think he's a good player, but I believe his overall skill set would play better on a lower line. I feel like someone with better hands (such as McGinn or Mitchell, when he returns) would fare better on line 3. Grier would still get his opportunities to score; playing on a line with Roenick and Shelley would better fit his style. He's fared better this year, statistically speaking, in the defensive stopper type role. He's a drain on offense.
Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Grier than most other middle tier RW's. He just shouldn't be one of our top scoring options.
Feel free to disagree with me on this one... the stats can be used to argue either case.
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BTW
I know McGinn is a center and Mitchell is a right wing, but juggling can be done to accommodate. Once everyone is healthy, my ideal lines would look like this:
Marleau-Thornton-Setoguchi
Michalek-Pavelski-Clowe
Mitchell-Goc-Cheechoo
Shelley-Roenick-Grier
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
Strike that, reverse it
Mitchell is the center and McGinn is a left wing.
But I still like the line combos – that third line would be like one of the hardest working lines ever. Plus, two centers on a line is never a bad thing (see: first line). They will definitely have more than a few opportunities to score.
Duh...
Yeah, I knew that. That’s why my lines look the way they do.
Posting at work allows for more stupid errors… nice catch.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
Hope that didn’t come off mean. I was trying to joke around and it sounded harsh to me when I reread it.
I JUST HATE MAKING MISTAKES.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
what happens if claude lemieux makes it back to the big show?
by serrapadre716 on Dec 30, 2008 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
Barring a Shelley injury, I don’t think Lemeuix will have a dedicated line assignment. Who do you sit?
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
i have no clue
that’s why i asked you.
by serrapadre716 on Dec 30, 2008 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe you sit Shelley even if healthy? I haven’t been on the Lemeuix bandwagon at all (in fact I had basically written it off), but the more this progresses the more I think he’s coming up at the end of the season.
Fights are almost non-existent in the playoffs, so having someone in the lineup who can bang bodies and score would be nice…..
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
I guess Lemeuix has better hands, good point.
It would be a pretty low move to ride Shelley all season then replace him with Lemeuix for the playoffs IMO.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
Definitely, but Shelley didn’t play a whole lot in last year’s playoffs either. Maybe rotate them each game?
I just don’t think DW signs him to a two-way contract for nothing, and who else do you replace? Grier maybe?
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
And we didn’t get past the second round against a much more physical Dallas team and stuggled against the rockum sockum Calgary robots. Coincidende?!!?
Probably.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
Very interesting
I like Mike a lot too, but have noticed he’s been rather invisible of late. Guess you explained that. The bigger question is why? Do you think the just plays better with Mitchell and Roenick? I can definitely see the corsi nr going up if he’s on the ice with Torrey.
Fear the Fin....where being an old guy isn't all bad
I think he plays better against weaker competition (i.e. lower lines). He’s also better in a checking type role, the Pavelski and Thornton lines are too quick for his style. He always gets caught on the forecheck… I’m guessing he’d play better if everyone on his line was being as physical.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
Totally agree with Grier being on the fourth line,
ideally this is definitely where he should be at this point in his career, now we have a few stats to back it up. I think he has played decently though with the goc/plihal line as of late and obviously good on the PK with patty.
I don't even care
I’m just hoping whatever will happen will happen soon (Torrey coming back).
I mean last time I doubted someone (Cheechoo) all they needed was the right line and then things just clicked into place.
Hopefully the same thing will happen for Grier.
by KindaFantastic on Dec 30, 2008 10:54 AM PST reply actions
I like Grier too
but he’s just not doing it for us anymore really.
"Whoever appeals to the law against his fellow man is either a fool or a coward. Whoever cannot take care of themselves without that law is both. For a wounded man shall say to his assailant, 'If I live, I will kill you. If I die, You are forgiven.' Such is the rule of honor." Omerta by Lamb of God
Anyone recall
When Grier used to be an enforcer? I watched him get in some rugged brawls during his one season in Buffalo – the man can fight. I do believe that he was an enforcer while with Edmonton, too…
With that in mind, we’d have a fearsome fourth line with Shelley and Grier, plus Roenick for middle-aged nastiness (no offense, Dave). Conventional wisdom says “one enforcer” but if we’re not going to bench Mike, then we need to highlight his attributes… like his help on special teams.
Fear the Fin: Where That'll Cheech You is belittled constantly...
Stupid italics
Only the word “enforcer” is supposed to be that way.
Fear the Fin: Where That'll Cheech You is belittled constantly...
Agreed...
He’s either a skilled enforcer, or a underskilled skill player… I take the former.
BTW, just shot you an email you silly goose.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
No offense taken
If I can be compared to that group in anyway, I’m proud to be there. Even if it’s just because I’m more than 10 years older’n most of them.
Fear the Fin....where being an old guy isn't all bad
by Dave Valentine on Dec 31, 2008 12:45 AM PST up reply actions
There is no problem with Grier
He has been a great shark in the time he has been here and I see nothing wrong with his play other than missing a few gimme goals, which every player does from time to time.
With that said, I am not averse to playing Grier on the 4th line. A Shelly-JR-Grier checking line would have plenty of toughness and veteran savvy to get the job done, and do it handily.
But as it has been almost beaten to death, what do we do when Mitchell comes back? If Mitchell centers the 3rd line, as he should IMO, I look to Goc or Plihal as the odd man out. Despite how well Goc has been playing lately, I would keep Plihal, for his PK abilities and his size. A third line of Plihal-Mitchell-Cheechoo would be pretty good, especially considering those three players would all be at their natural positions. It would almost be a hybrid scoring/checking third line that doesn’t excel at either role, but can perform both above average.
So I guess that means my conclusion is that Goc centers the 4th line until JR comes back and we quietly look to trade Goc until that time. Barring another injury it just makes sense to me that Goc is the odd man out.
I think I pulled my swagger muscle...
Goc has played better this year,
I think it would not be a problem for him to move over to left wing, his playmaking ability would be great for that line.
I prefaced the whole article with how much I liked Grier. But just because he’s been a great Shark doesn’t mean he is playing great this year. He’s done much more than miss some gimme goals… as his Corsi number shows, he’s been a drain on offense. At this point in his career, I just think he’s more suited for a line 4 role.
IMO, Goc is one of the better young players on our team; Plihal is just filler. When Mitchell comes back, Plihal is probably the most expendable player; Mitchell will take Plihal’s spot next to Michalek on the PK. You can send Plihal down and play Mitchell at the left wing, which is probably a more fitting position for him. Mitchell’s career FO% is 49.42, while Goc’s this year is 55.19. I’m not saying Mitchell can’t improve in the circle, but right now Goc’s FO% has made a huge difference. This year, Goc has started to show us why he was a first round pick with his skilled/physical play. He doesn’t have many people who can put the puck away consistently (i.e. Grier, Plihal, Kaspar) on his line; that’s why his points don’t match his improved play as of yet.
Also, I’m a pretty firm believer that this will be Roenick’s last year in the NHL (especially if the Sharks go on a deep playoff run). If that happens, we would be pretty sorry that we traded Goc away (as you suggest)… you’d either have to move Marleau off the Thornton line (moving Pavelski to line 3) or stick with TK as your fourth line center. Mitchell will be fine as the left wing on line 3, his speed and scoring touch would make our third line a capable third scoring option.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
Goc
I think we need to have a formal discussion about Goc because some things need to get cleared up about him. And I would like to preface by saying a few things. Firstly, I like Goc. Secondly, I am not attacking you when I say any of this. I am genuinely interested in having a discussion about Goc with you and I value your opinion. You seem to be one of the bloggers on this site that has more substance to everything you say. With that out of the way I can get to the heart of this post.
First, Goc is not one of the young players on the team. Since he is 25 I can let it slide, but since this is his 4th season as a Shark I personally don’t view him as one of the young bucks on the team. Lets take a trip back to the year before the lockout – the 2003-2004 season. Goc played well in the playoffs the year before the lockout. He scored a sweet game winner against the Avalance to secure the series (game 6). It was during this year that my eyes opened really wide to Marcel Goc. After the lockout year, I looked to him to see if he would improve and become a better hockey player. Now fast-forward to today, err just before this season. He hasn’t posted a single positive season in terms of +/-. He hasn’t scored double digit goals in any season of his career. He doesn’t fight, he rarely checks hard and he’s not a PK specialist. He’s not much of a center either when you consider he hasn’t posted above 15 assist in a season ever. When it comes down to it, his only real skill is in the faceoff circle. That makes him more of a “filler” than someone like Plihal for example. Now you could argue that since he doesn’t play with high scoring line-mates it is too hard for him to go positive or score points. But in a season like this one, where we have more depth than ever, he is just plugging right along his career line, currently sitting at -4, with 1 goal and 5 assists. “Improved play” doesn’t mean much unless if you get the job done.
Mitchell has only played one season, so comparing his faceoff percentage to Goc’s is not really a good analysis. And even if Mitchell never posts a higher FO% than Goc I would still rather have Michell centering my third line than Goc any day of the week. And I have seen more than 5 times as much Goc in terms of games played. Michell cal flat out play hockey. He has showed me more heart, leadership and hockey skills in one season than Goc has his entire career. Michell’s skating ability alone makes him more of an impact player than Goc will ever be.
Plihal on the other hand, is playing in his first season this year. Sure he had a cup-of-tea last year in his call-up, and I thought he stood out. This year Plihal is doing everything I wanted Rismiller to do and more. He checks and skates equal or greater than that of Goc. He kills penalties well. He already has more points than Goc in 4 less minutes per game than Goc. And again this is Plihal’s first real season. I would much rather like to see Plihal develop than Goc. Goc has had his time and hasn’t done much with it. You talk about Goc’s improved play but I really think he is just exerting more energy because he feels Michell nipping at his back. I’ll wager that if Plihal plays as much time with us as Goc has, that he will be a far better player overall.
If we do keep Goc, I am totally cool with it. I think he has some value on the checking line. But not many other places. A Shelly-Goc-Grier 4th line could get the job done. And I wouldn’t worry too much about losing Goc with respect to Roenick retiring after this season. There will be plenty of free-agent options that would love to come play for us considering what we have built. Plus Logan Corture is right around the corner and we have some other prospects I wouldn’t mind giving icetime to. If we could find a way to salvage some value out of Goc, like a draft pick, I would jump all over it.
I think I pulled my swagger muscle...
My thoughts exactly.
Fear the Fin: Where I'm totally UNAPPRECIATED!
by TCY on Jan 2, 2009 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
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