Fear The Fin: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Anonymous Eagle covering Marquette!

Sharktistical Analysis: Big Time Goals

Redlight_medium

If John Madden ever stumbled into a gig as a hockey announcer, you have to figure that the pre-game show would consist of him stating, "The team that scores the most goals tonight will walk out of the building with a win."

The simplicity is almost profound.

Nearly every goal scored during the course of a hockey game is important. Besides the occasional 6-1 shellacking, or an empty netter with five seconds remaining on the clock, a goal fulfills the basic premise of any given tilt- outscore your opponent and you will win.

That being said, not all goals are created equal.

Star-divide

In order to quantify the importance of a given goal, a set of rules must be established. What we're trying to determine here is not whether a certain goal has value to the team (as stated before, "nearly every goal scored during the course of a hockey game is important"), but which goals are the most important to the team.

1) The object of a hockey game is to outscore your opponent, leading to a win. We can then say that the most important goals are the ones that present the team with a mathematical opportunity to achieve victory.

2) Therefore, goals that provide an opportunity to win are those that tie the game, and those that put the team into the lead. Both of the aforementioned types yield a situation where the specific team is in an environment that is conducive to victory.

3) Shootout goals are not included due to the fact that they are not a part of a normal game. It can't be applied to a playoff situation, so it will be ignored.

With these ideals in place, the following is a list of data chronicling performance to date, discluding anyone under 3 BTG points. The numbers are juxtaposed against the official statistics:

 

[Editor's Note]: All the following information is updated as of December 6th at 3:00 PM.

Skater Goals BTG Assists BTA Points BTP
Blake 5 3 16 3 21 6
Boyle 9 7 14 8 23 15
Cheechoo 4 2 4 1 8 3
Clowe 11 3 12 8 23 11
Ehrhoff 2 0 14 6 16 6
Goc 1 1 3 2 4 3
Grier 3 1 7 2 10 3
Lukowich 0 0 5 4 5 4
Marleau 12 8 17 10 29 18
Michalek 7 3 10 3 17 6
Pavelski 11 6 11 6 22 12
Plihal 3 1 3 3 6 4
Roenick 2 1 5 3 7 4
Setoguchi 13 8 17 8 30 16
Thornton 8 4 24 12 32 16
Vlasic 3 0 14 12 17 12

 

A raw data dump doesn't do much in the way of determining a specific player's true performance (as it doesn't take into account games played, when the goal came, TOI etc.- these will be tackled next week) but there are a few things I'd like to point out.

  • Dan Boyle scores a lot of big time goals compared to his official totals. Roughly 77% (7/9) of his goals put the team in an opportunity to win. Other notables include Devin Setoguchi (8/13) and Patrick Marleau (8/12)
  • Clowe's official goal total is inflated when compared to his BTG numbers. Although Ryane has 11 goals on the year, only 3 of them have put the team in a direct opportunity to win. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during the course of the year.
  • Blake's assist total is inflated when compared to his BTG numbers. A mere 3 assists were deemed noteworthy, compared to his official line of 16.
  • Vlasic leads the team in overall points percentage (70.6% BTP), while Marleau leads forwards with a 65.1% BTP. The point percentage was calculated by taking the number of total BTG Points and dividing it by the official stat line.

There's obviously a lot of work to be done here, and a more in depth look will be beneficial (if not utterly necessary). I'll take a look at it this weekend.

Feel free to commend or critique in the comments. How's that for a tongue twister?

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I guess that...

…Dan Boyle is earning his $6 million. As for Clowe, 75% of his assists are Big Time Assists.

by Mr. K. on Dec 5, 2008 10:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You are very smart.

I look forward to discussing this over the keg you owe me.

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by That'll Cheech You on Dec 6, 2008 12:13 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I look forward

to hearing that discussion. Especially near the end of the keg

by Dave Valentine on Dec 6, 2008 4:54 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I think your numbers may be a bit off.

For instance, take a look at this: http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/1600/situational;_ylt=AhGfbsoS8xXiDVkfkfCUcddivLYF

While the team is winning, Thornton has 3 goals and 12 assists; these should not be counted. While the game is tied, he has 4 goals and 9 assists; these should be counted as they give the team the lead. When the Sharks are losing, by one goal or ten, he has 1 goal and 3 assists; they should only be counted if the team is down by one goal. So we can safely say that Thornton’s Big Time Goal total is at least four and at most five, and his Big Time Assist total is at least nine and at most twelve. (Based on my calculations he’s at 4 BTG and 10 BTA.).

by senor_k on Dec 6, 2008 6:09 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Roenick should also have 1 BTG, and Setoguchi should have 8, and no more than 8.

by senor_k on Dec 6, 2008 6:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the heads up, I’ll re-check the data but some things to keep in mind:

1) Shootout goals aren’t counted (which could explain Roenick’s goal). I should have explained why I didn’t count shootout goals- I’ll add that into the article.
2) The first goal of the game counts since the team’s are essentially “tied”- I don’t know if Yahoo’s stats cover that.

Regardless, I’ll double check my stats. I’m pulling them off the game by game scoresheet from the Sharks site so there could have been some errors.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 12:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Looks like my manual transfer did have some errors- I’ll have the updated version ready in about a half hour, and will throw it in the game thread. The reason I’m doing it manually is because I have some stats I’d like to expound on. In order to get that information I have to enter them myself.

Regardless, your comment helped me out a lot. Thanks!

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Update

I now have Joe at 4 BTG and 12 BTA’s.

The assist games in question:

Game 2 vs. LAK
Game 4 vs. CBJ
Game 6 vs. PHI
Game 7 @ PHI
Game 11 vs. DET
Game 15 vs. DAL
Game 17 vs. NSH
Game 19 @ CHI
Game 20 @ NSH
Game 22 vs. CHI
Game 25 vs. TOR
Game 26 vs. CBJ

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 2:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

all goals ARE created equal...somewhat

if your down 3-0. and let’s say pavs puts one in, then patty, then gooch. then gooch’s goal isn’t as big if pavs never put one in and gooch’s isn’t that big if pavs doesn’t. the hell with it, if one of the 3 don’t score then the rest aren’t that important because we still lose 3-2.

i’m open to smartass remarks. anyone?

by serrapadre716 on Dec 6, 2008 9:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

In order to quantify the importance of a given goal, a set of rules must be established. What we’re trying to determine here is not whether a certain goal has value to the team (as stated before, “nearly every goal scored during the course of a hockey game is important”), but which goals are the most important to the team.

This is only meant to be a supplement to the official stat line.

Senor K might have addressed your critique here.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

His formula does take this into account,

although I can’t really think of any way to absolutely perfect the formula, but his does a pretty decent job I’d say, and I like his idea of comparing it to ice time as well because the discrepancies are pretty big.

by mattman on Dec 6, 2008 3:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

The Official SB Nation blog of the San Jose Sharks.
Start posting about the Sharks »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

3831000_small
March OT Thread

Recent FanPosts

Gallows_belly_of_shark_small
Postgame: Worst Night of the Year
80791901_small
OT: Fantasy Baseball
Small
Thank You Mr Ovechkin
Small
What people have been saying on why Miller will win the Vezina..
Untitled_small
Dropping the Gloves: The one that's a few months late
3sharkmoonwy_small
Anyone know how to bet on hockey in Vegas?
Small
For Heaven's Sake, Rest the Olympians!
Small
Ode to the Sharks
Sex-setoguchi_small
OT: For TCY and other fellow uber Star Wars nerds.

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Boston Bruins' Johnny Boychuk (55) shoots the puck past Carolina Hurricanes goalie Manny Legace (34) for a goal during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Raleigh, N.C., Tuesday, March 16, 2010. (AP Photo/Karl B DeBlaker)

Bergeron Injury Overshadows Bruins 5-2 Win Over Carolina

Edmonton Oilers second round pick Anton Lander, from Sweden, speaks to reporters at the 2009 NHL entry draft  in Montreal Saturday, June 27, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Ryan Remiorz) link

An Interview With Oilers Prospect Anton Lander

Washington Capitals' Alex Ovechkin (8), from Russia, shakes hands with Pittsburgh Penguins' Sidney Crosby (87) following Game 7 of an NHL hockey second-round playoff series, Wednesday, May 13, 2009, in Washington. The Penguins won 6-2. (AP Photo/Bruce Bennett, Pool) link

A Statistical Look At The NHL's MVP Race

More from SBNation.com >


Editor

N3625599_32203920_2275_small Mr. Plank

Authors

Psw0009_small That'll Cheech You

Dustin_fire_fighter_small Conico do Mayo Miracle

Russian Correspondent

Ovechkin-russia-080518-584_small Ivano27