Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Full Coverage Of New York's Victory Celebration

Sharktistical Analysis: Big Time Goals

Redlight_medium

If John Madden ever stumbled into a gig as a hockey announcer, you have to figure that the pre-game show would consist of him stating, "The team that scores the most goals tonight will walk out of the building with a win."

The simplicity is almost profound.

Nearly every goal scored during the course of a hockey game is important. Besides the occasional 6-1 shellacking, or an empty netter with five seconds remaining on the clock, a goal fulfills the basic premise of any given tilt- outscore your opponent and you will win.

That being said, not all goals are created equal.

Star-divide

In order to quantify the importance of a given goal, a set of rules must be established. What we're trying to determine here is not whether a certain goal has value to the team (as stated before, "nearly every goal scored during the course of a hockey game is important"), but which goals are the most important to the team.

1) The object of a hockey game is to outscore your opponent, leading to a win. We can then say that the most important goals are the ones that present the team with a mathematical opportunity to achieve victory.

2) Therefore, goals that provide an opportunity to win are those that tie the game, and those that put the team into the lead. Both of the aforementioned types yield a situation where the specific team is in an environment that is conducive to victory.

3) Shootout goals are not included due to the fact that they are not a part of a normal game. It can't be applied to a playoff situation, so it will be ignored.

With these ideals in place, the following is a list of data chronicling performance to date, discluding anyone under 3 BTG points. The numbers are juxtaposed against the official statistics:

 

[Editor's Note]: All the following information is updated as of December 6th at 3:00 PM.

Skater Goals BTG Assists BTA Points BTP
Blake 5 3 16 3 21 6
Boyle 9 7 14 8 23 15
Cheechoo 4 2 4 1 8 3
Clowe 11 3 12 8 23 11
Ehrhoff 2 0 14 6 16 6
Goc 1 1 3 2 4 3
Grier 3 1 7 2 10 3
Lukowich 0 0 5 4 5 4
Marleau 12 8 17 10 29 18
Michalek 7 3 10 3 17 6
Pavelski 11 6 11 6 22 12
Plihal 3 1 3 3 6 4
Roenick 2 1 5 3 7 4
Setoguchi 13 8 17 8 30 16
Thornton 8 4 24 12 32 16
Vlasic 3 0 14 12 17 12

 

A raw data dump doesn't do much in the way of determining a specific player's true performance (as it doesn't take into account games played, when the goal came, TOI etc.- these will be tackled next week) but there are a few things I'd like to point out.

  • Dan Boyle scores a lot of big time goals compared to his official totals. Roughly 77% (7/9) of his goals put the team in an opportunity to win. Other notables include Devin Setoguchi (8/13) and Patrick Marleau (8/12)
  • Clowe's official goal total is inflated when compared to his BTG numbers. Although Ryane has 11 goals on the year, only 3 of them have put the team in a direct opportunity to win. It will be interesting to see how this plays out during the course of the year.
  • Blake's assist total is inflated when compared to his BTG numbers. A mere 3 assists were deemed noteworthy, compared to his official line of 16.
  • Vlasic leads the team in overall points percentage (70.6% BTP), while Marleau leads forwards with a 65.1% BTP. The point percentage was calculated by taking the number of total BTG Points and dividing it by the official stat line.

There's obviously a lot of work to be done here, and a more in depth look will be beneficial (if not utterly necessary). I'll take a look at it this weekend.

Feel free to commend or critique in the comments. How's that for a tongue twister?

Comment 11 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

I guess that...

…Dan Boyle is earning his $6 million. As for Clowe, 75% of his assists are Big Time Assists.

by Mr. K. on Dec 5, 2008 10:43 PM PST reply actions  

You are very smart.

I look forward to discussing this over the keg you owe me.

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by Matthew_Taylor on Dec 6, 2008 12:13 AM PST reply actions  

I look forward

to hearing that discussion. Especially near the end of the keg

by Dave Valentine on Dec 6, 2008 4:54 AM PST reply actions  

I think your numbers may be a bit off.

For instance, take a look at this: http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/1600/situational;_ylt=AhGfbsoS8xXiDVkfkfCUcddivLYF

While the team is winning, Thornton has 3 goals and 12 assists; these should not be counted. While the game is tied, he has 4 goals and 9 assists; these should be counted as they give the team the lead. When the Sharks are losing, by one goal or ten, he has 1 goal and 3 assists; they should only be counted if the team is down by one goal. So we can safely say that Thornton’s Big Time Goal total is at least four and at most five, and his Big Time Assist total is at least nine and at most twelve. (Based on my calculations he’s at 4 BTG and 10 BTA.).

by senor_k on Dec 6, 2008 6:09 AM PST reply actions  

Roenick should also have 1 BTG, and Setoguchi should have 8, and no more than 8.

by senor_k on Dec 6, 2008 6:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Thanks for the heads up, I’ll re-check the data but some things to keep in mind:

1) Shootout goals aren’t counted (which could explain Roenick’s goal). I should have explained why I didn’t count shootout goals- I’ll add that into the article.
2) The first goal of the game counts since the team’s are essentially “tied”- I don’t know if Yahoo’s stats cover that.

Regardless, I’ll double check my stats. I’m pulling them off the game by game scoresheet from the Sharks site so there could have been some errors.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 12:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Looks like my manual transfer did have some errors- I’ll have the updated version ready in about a half hour, and will throw it in the game thread. The reason I’m doing it manually is because I have some stats I’d like to expound on. In order to get that information I have to enter them myself.

Regardless, your comment helped me out a lot. Thanks!

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Update

I now have Joe at 4 BTG and 12 BTA’s.

The assist games in question:

Game 2 vs. LAK
Game 4 vs. CBJ
Game 6 vs. PHI
Game 7 @ PHI
Game 11 vs. DET
Game 15 vs. DAL
Game 17 vs. NSH
Game 19 @ CHI
Game 20 @ NSH
Game 22 vs. CHI
Game 25 vs. TOR
Game 26 vs. CBJ

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

all goals ARE created equal...somewhat

if your down 3-0. and let’s say pavs puts one in, then patty, then gooch. then gooch’s goal isn’t as big if pavs never put one in and gooch’s isn’t that big if pavs doesn’t. the hell with it, if one of the 3 don’t score then the rest aren’t that important because we still lose 3-2.

i’m open to smartass remarks. anyone?

by serrapadre716 on Dec 6, 2008 9:22 AM PST reply actions  

In order to quantify the importance of a given goal, a set of rules must be established. What we’re trying to determine here is not whether a certain goal has value to the team (as stated before, “nearly every goal scored during the course of a hockey game is important”), but which goals are the most important to the team.

This is only meant to be a supplement to the official stat line.

Senor K might have addressed your critique here.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 6, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions  

His formula does take this into account,

although I can’t really think of any way to absolutely perfect the formula, but his does a pretty decent job I’d say, and I like his idea of comparing it to ice time as well because the discrepancies are pretty big.

by mattman on Dec 6, 2008 3:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

The Official SB Nation blog of the San Jose Sharks.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Thank you

Recent FanPosts

Sharkslogotail_small
Sharkstistics - February 2012
297235_228875923843877_197693266962143_697284_1857293148_n_small
Defending the Blue Line Needs Your Vote
Small
What would you give for Jeff Carter
Snapshot_of_me_1_small
Hypothetical: If the Coyotes had to move...
Small
Selling 2 Club Level seats for tomorrow's game vs Columbus and others
Pavs2_small
All-Stars Skill Competition Open Thread
P257268-san_jose-opening_ceremonies_of_san_jose_sharks_game_small
Ryane Clowe Trade Rumors
Sharkslogotail_small
NHL Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers, & Potential Points Standings - 2011-12 Running Charts
Hidey-fern_small
NHL Draft

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managing Editor

Photo_388_small Mr. Plank

Editor

Slappy_small Matthew_Taylor

Authors

Pavs2_small idunno723

Poseypavelski_small mymclife

Shark_trek_small jwizzle241

Ovechkin-russia-080518-584_small Ivano M

Shfe_small Jon Allred

Bender-smoking_small The Neutral

Moderators

2296_s_small Nael M.

Mikey_small ElvisVF101

Z_small ZeroIndulgence

313483_2054510893373_1562580382_31984672_1965025_n_small James Brady