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Sharktistical Analysis: Stat-king the Pads

I should be arrested. Horrible pun usage is a major offense in blogdom, but I'll throw caution to the wind... the e-Police are probably out catching those "Type in all Caps" double offenders. Look out idunno723, they're on to you.

Earlier this week, while discussing the struggles of Kiprusoff, some users politely asked me to do a Sharktistical piece on goalies. 

How could I say no to you guys? I'm a sucker for begging.

The great thing about this piece is that the numbers speak for themselves. I compared the GAA and Save % of Nabokov, Toskala, Kiprusoff, and Boucher. Here's what I came up with.

Star-divide

Gaa_medium

This graph displays the goalie's GAA over the past 8 seasons. Here's what I took from the data:

1.  Man, Boucher has had a rocky few seasons. His GAA has been consistently above the other Sharks goalies... until the last two seasons. Has Boucher turned his career around? Is he the best goalie of the four?

Probably not. I'm attributing his better numbers to the fact that he is on a better team now (the Sharks) than he was in seasons past. He's played well, no question, but it's impossible to ignore how much changing scenery has helped him. He's also helped by the relatively low number of games he's had to start; Boucher has had plenty of rest backing up one of the most durable goalies in the NHL.

2. What has happened to Boucher has also happened to Toskala... only the other way around. Statistically speaking, Toskala has gone downhill the past two seasons. It's a pretty violent change for Toskala; if the season were to end today, this would be his first year with a GAA over 3.00 (and he's only been a starter for two). 

3. Kiprusoff's GAA has slowly increased since the season in which he allowed only 1.70 goals per game. At 32, he's not getting any younger; it's hard to imagine him becoming the Kiprusoff of old again.

4. Nabby may not have the lowest GAA each season, but he's pretty consistent. He's only had a GAA over 3.00 once in the past eight seasons while playing more than any of the other goalies. He's not going to give you the prettiest looking stat lines, but you can count on him to keep your team in the hunt all season.

Like I said above, I also looked at the save percentage stat since some people have griped about GAA in the past. Here's what the trends look like:

Sv__medium
It tells pretty much the same story, but there are some interesting things here that you didn't see on the other graph.

1. Nabokov's save % so far this year is close to his career low. Ouch.

2. As impressive as Kipper's 2003-2004 season was, it's looking like it was more of an anomaly than anything else. His save percentage has regressed recently and is now more in line with his career numbers.

What do you take from all this? First and foremost, it's pretty evident that the quality of your team helps to determine how good of a goalie you will be. It's no coincidence that Boucher and Toskala have better stat lines during the time they were with San Jose. Although I applaud many of Wilson's moves, he doesn't have a sixth sense to know when a goalie is about to get bad or good... but he did build the team, so give him credit for that.

Second, I think we can stop considering Kiprusoff as an elite goalie. He's very good, and can be great at times. However, he's definitely losing steam as his career progresses. If his decline continues, Mr. Keenan might have to move on and send Kipper off to pasture.

I know this was pretty bare bones stuff, but I'll take a closer look sometime next week.

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Excellent stuff man. What concerns me the most about the current Sharks roster is Nabokov’s save percentage. Sure Boucher’s GAA has benefited with his time in San Jose (as has most goaltender’s) but consider this:

If we’re dealing with the exact same sample (08-09 Sharks roster), shouldn’t Nabokov’s save percentage be relatively close to Boucher’s? Especially if we consider him our “number one”?

The vast difference (about .30 points) is pretty huge, and I don’t think we can attribute it to games played because Boucher started every game, including back to backs, when Nabby was down. You can make the case for gameplan (the Sharks are more conservative with Boucher in net), but even if that’s the case that wide of a disparity shouldn’t be happening.

Question now is, do we have a goaltending controversy in San Jose? As you said, “The great thing about this piece is that the numbers speak for themselves.”

Hmmmmmm.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 7, 2008 3:28 PM PST reply actions  

I don't know if I'd count out Nabby just yet...

but something is a-brewin for sure.

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by TCY on Dec 7, 2008 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I would think that Nabokov would be better for the whole season

as our number one guy. I don’t think that Boucher would last very long as a starting goalie. Nabokov would be more consistent IMO.

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 7, 2008 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

For the sake of conversation

Boucher’s save percentage when he started seven games in a row was .912. Nabokov’s this year is a shade under .900.

I’m not advocating Boucher taking Nabokov’s place (although I would like to see him get more starts); what it comes down to is the ability of the Sharks to roll out a goaltender every night that will get them wins. That’s a helluva blessing.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 7, 2008 5:07 PM PST up reply actions  

oh yeah

i’m all for boucher getting more starts, but what I was trying to say was, I don’t think Boucher could keep up at the pace he was going at if he played the whole season.

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 7, 2008 5:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Are you crazy.

There is absolutely no controversy here in San Jose, we all know Nabby is the better more consistent goaltender. Lets not try and stir up a controversy that could break up what a winning team has got going here.

by mattman on Dec 7, 2008 8:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess I wasn’t specific enough in my comment- I was just trying to highlight the fact that Boucher’s numbers have been better than Nabokov’s this season. Do I think that twenty seven games in is a sufficient sample size? No. All I’m saying is that if Nabby doesn’t improve (which seems unlikely given his performance two games ago against the Jackets), Boucher should get more opportunities to start (whether or not he’s our “number one”).

In summation, don’t count Boucher out. It’s not a controversy, but just because Nabokov has been the go-to-guy the last few seasons doesn’t mean he’s entitled to the job.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 8, 2008 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

If you watch the games...

the Sharks play much different by Boucher is in net rather than Nabokov. Less aggressive on their breakout, forwards are forced to get back more to help the defense and defense isn’t as aggressive on the offensive end. Nabokov has actually played better than Boucher this year in my opinion, Nabby is always in the right spot to make the save, he has just been a bit unlucky, like the Ehroff goal and the Boyle goal in the last game which were clearly not his fault.

by mattman on Dec 8, 2008 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Another Thing

Nabokov and Toskala’s career seems to parallel one another with the peaks and valleys. Interesting stuff.

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 7, 2008 3:29 PM PST reply actions  

Thank Warren Strelow...

Who coached Nabby, Kipper, and Vesa before passing away in April of last year.

by Mr. K. on Dec 7, 2008 3:47 PM PST reply actions  

Oh wow.

Pension Plan Puppets*
* Blog contains less than 2% puppet content by weight.

by Chemmy on Dec 9, 2008 11:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Who's idunno723?

OH CRAP THATS ME!!!

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 7, 2008 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

what's he talking about?

i thought they were going after the idiots that were typing IN ALL CAPS. good thing you and i never do that or we’d be screwed.

and do you know a guy named matthew lau?

by serrapadre716 on Dec 7, 2008 6:50 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah

who talks IN ALL CAPS anyways…

and nope, I don’t know any matthew lau

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 7, 2008 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

yup

the only losers that would type IN ALL CAPS would have to be dumb enough to go all guys schools. they must have no lives. they probably spend all their time on some blog.

by serrapadre716 on Dec 8, 2008 5:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Don't rag on the Bells...

a site moderator might just be one… hint hint.

(GO BELLS)

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by TCY on Dec 8, 2008 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

YEAH YEAH

GO BELLS

what? you typed in all caps too! HAHA

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 8, 2008 9:10 PM PST up reply actions  

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

+1 TO IDUNNO723

Fear The Fin: Where the second round is overrated.

by Mr. Plank on Dec 8, 2008 10:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I DON’T KNOW WHAT WE’RE YELLING ABOUT!

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by TCY on Dec 9, 2008 7:36 AM PST up reply actions  

yelling?

I’M NOT YELLING AT ANYONE!

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 9, 2008 3:32 PM PST up reply actions  

dude. i go to SERRA

HINT HINT. ALL GUYS SCHOOL, IT WAS A FAILED JOKE!!!

by serrapadre716 on Dec 9, 2008 7:43 AM PST up reply actions  

SERRA IS A GIRLS NAME

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

*and aparently the name of some important preist or sometihng

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 9, 2008 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

sara and sarah are girls names...the first one is wierd

he’s got something to do with the catholic missions in california. he’s close to becoming a saint. maybe if i paid attention in theology class i’d know this. nah, i’m too lazy.

by serrapadre716 on Dec 9, 2008 4:55 PM PST up reply actions  

haha

in my school newspaper, when the wrestling coach mentioned tough teams one of them was “Sarah” hahaha

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 10, 2008 3:23 PM PST up reply actions  

im a freshie...

please don’t hurt me

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 10, 2008 5:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm a year removed from Cal Poly...

But I still gotz love for the Bells.

Fear The Fin: Gloating during the season, crying during the playoffs.

by TCY on Dec 10, 2008 8:06 PM PST up reply actions  

don't worry

i can’t hurt you from san mateo when your in san jose. but if you went to serra that would be a different story. freshman suck, no matter where you go. [jk, don’t shit yourself…alot]

by serrapadre716 on Dec 11, 2008 5:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Cool stuff

Thanks for putting this together. Question for those in the know: What’s the goalie situation like in our farm system? That’s a part of hockey I’ve never known much about. I just know that guys come up every now and then.

Thanks

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Dec 7, 2008 5:54 PM PST reply actions  

It Is A Great Analysis

Great stuff. I just wanted to point out that Nabby came out of no where. His story is really amazing. I think Tim Burke found him right. He found one of the best goalies ever.

Wack To Mack With The General and The Back. (J-Mac and D-Mac)

by Rayder K on Dec 7, 2008 8:40 PM PST reply actions  

Came out of nowhere indeed

John Nabokov was drafted in the 9th round.
haha

"Gotta suck for the other teams. You finally catch the Sharks on an off night and you still lose." -Shark Man

by idunno723 on Dec 7, 2008 9:02 PM PST up reply actions  

lol

memories

Wack To Mack With The General and The Back. (J-Mac and D-Mac)

by Rayder K on Dec 7, 2008 11:30 PM PST reply actions  

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