Sharktistical Analysis: Clowe-verfield

by TCY on Jan 19, 2009 2:03 PM PST in Statistical Analysis Comment 7 comments

Much of the Sharks success this season has been credited to the offseason acquisitions of Blake, Boyle, and Lukowich. Granted, these guy have been great so far this season and have played a big part in the overall success of the Sharks this season.

However, I'm going to go on record by saying that the biggest offseason move made by the Sharks was the resigning of Ryane Clowe.

Clowe's 07-08 numbers were low due to a knee injury that kept him off the ice for 67 games. Although he played well during the post season, the Sharks took a risk by signing him... knee injuries have the tendency to linger. (see Cheechoo, Jonathan)

But it appears as if that risk has come with an extreme level of reward. Clowe is currently 4th on the team in points (19 goals, 19 assists) and has impressed coaches and fans alike with his improved scoring touch and impressive up and down play.

Clowe's stellar play has meant volumes to the Sharks this season. How did I come to this conclusion? Take a look at the graph below.

The blue section of the graph shows how many points the Sharks have earned during the season (in five game increments); the orange shows Clowe's points during the same increments.

As you can see, when Clowe scores, the Sharks win. I've run the same study for every other Sharks player, and no one is as closely correlated or has as much covariance with the Sharks' points this season as Clowe.

What does this mean? It means that an injury to Clowe would be as devastating to the Sharks' Stanley Cup hopes as almost any other player on the team. Without Clowe, you lose 22% of your powerplay scoring (Clowe has 11 powerplay goals). You lose the solid up and down play that Clowe brings. You loose one of your most physically gifted players. Last, but not least, you lose a strong clubhouse presence and the youthful leadership that he brings to the best team in the NHL.

So, while other players get all the hype, Clowe will keep on carrying the Sharks to bigger and better things this season. If last years playoffs were any indication, Clowe is at his best when it matters most (5 goals and 4 assists in 11 playoff games).

Whatever the outcome of this season is, it will have one thing in common with the end of last season: Ryane Clowe will once again be a free agent. If Clowe continues on this pace, there will be at least a few teams who will throw big numbers and big years at him. Here's hoping that the Sharks are one of those teams. With players like Blake (5MM/yr), Roenick (1.1MM/yr), and Grier (1.775MM/yr) coming off the books, the Sharks will definitely be capable of putting some money in front of our star RW. Three years and 4.0MM average per (3.0MM start with 1.0MM bumps, similar to the recent Michalek contract) should get the job done. Much of this depends on the play of rookies like Joslin, Cavanagh, and Staubitz. If these young guys can prove they deserve a place on the top team in the NHL, the eventual departure of Blake, JR, and Grier will hurt much less.

Hopefully the Sharks' front office sees what I see in Ryane Clowe. If they do see it, they'll do everything they can to keep him in teal for years to come.

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Very interesting article. Since Boyle is on pace to shatter the Sharks’ record for defensive points in a season, I’d go with him, but Clowe is an interesting take. However, my NHL salary tuning fork says you’re a bit off on Clowe’s contract prospects. I’d say the bidding starts at $4M and goes up from there. The only way he gets less than $4M is if there’s a big cap contraction.

by mepex on Jan 19, 2009 3:44 PM PST reply actions

Well,

I tried to match up Clowe with the recent contract given to Milan Michalek (3MM/yr to start). I expected 1MM bumps from there, so I guess that that is a typo on my part but we agree on the 4MM/yr level. However, I’m thinking that Clowe’s injury history and relative instability in scoring the past few years keeps the salary number around than 4MM on average, at least if he signs with the Sharks.

That is all pretty contingent, though, on the Sharks winning the cup. It’s kind of like the Zetterberg problem. Does HZ take 8MM and re up with the Wings, or get +10MM somewhere else? I’m thinking Clowe wouldn’t be opposed to a home town discount.

Boyle has been a big piece too, no question. But without Clowe, you don’t have two elite-level lines to throw at at team. Clowe gets the edge, in my book.

Fear the Fin: Where everybody loves me.

by TCY on Jan 19, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions

Wow. Typo city again.

Having pneumonia doesn’t bode well for my grammar skillz.

Fear the Fin: Where everybody loves me.

by TCY on Jan 19, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions

The great thing about Clowe is he’s still an RFA after this year, unlike HZ. So even if Clowe takes big bucks to go elsewhere, the Sharks will still likely get a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (if my prediction is correct).

And I’m with you, Clowe could take a hometown discount. It’s how Doug Wilson keeps this team competitive- plain and simple. Both Joe and Patty could have gotten more on the open market than they got in their extensions, and as long as Clowe’s got a stranglehold on second line minutes and PP time (at least), I think he’ll stick around.

by mepex on Jan 20, 2009 8:40 AM PST up reply actions

I wouldn't mind

seeing the numbers on some of the other players. This is pretty interesting stuff.

The salary issue does have me a little concerned. About 4MM of Blake’s contract is going right into Pickles’s and Douglas’s extensions. In addition to the guys you named, Cavanagh, Boucher, and Semenov are also UFAs. Our RFA list consists of Clowe, Mitchell, Goc, Plihal, Staubitz, Kaspar, Armstrong, and Greiss. Going into the offseason we’ll have around 47MM going to 14 players. Depending on how far the cap falls we could be in trouble.

It’s going to be an interesting offseason for sure. But for now I’m happy to just forget all that and enjoy the ride.

Oh and feel better dude.

It takes a big man to cry and it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man. -Jamie Baker

by Lurker Shark on Jan 19, 2009 6:50 PM PST reply actions

Thanks for the get well wishes.

The numbers for the other players aren’t nearly as distinct. I’ll roll them out soon though, I’m thinking of doing an similar type of study for each of the 4 lines.

Fear the Fin: Where everybody loves me.

by TCY on Jan 19, 2009 7:07 PM PST up reply actions