The thing that surprises me the most is Detroit’s average draft position (47th) compared to San Jose’s (29th). If I remember correctly, the Wings didn’t even have a first round pick in the 2000’s until the lockout. No real need to do so back then with money to spend on free agents as well as the lack of a salary cap, but in this day and age those young players who fill out your roster are essential if you’re going to compete. Paying big bucks to guys like Lidstrom, Boyle, Datsyuk, and Thornton means splurging in free agency is a hard road to come by. Detroit has beaten the system by keeping netminder contracts low and signing European league players (Ville Leino my boy!), but I think you see them continue to take a much more active role in the draft/promoting prospects quicker going forward (compared to the early 00’s) with the amount of money tied up at the top of their roster.

Also, for any draft buffs out there (or those who weren’t around during the draft this summer when we passed it around), Daoust of PPP created a customizable spreadsheet of every team’s draft history since 1994. Like TCY said, San Jose does a pretty damn good job of drafting (one of the best really) according to various measures. Huzzah!

Good write-up. I totally thought you’d prove Detroit’s method paid off better than the Sharks’… I guess it does really stem down to who needs players. Detroit is as close to a dynasty as we have nowadays in the NHL and they contend each year so they don’t need to rush prospects through their system. San jose contends too, but like you said they have trouble signing free agents so if they need a player they call someone up. Again, good write-up.

I’m with Plank. And I disagree with this statement:

In other cases (Kaspar and Goc, especially), the Sharks have wasted some high draft picks

I’ve found (and I’ve looked at the spreadsheet that Plank referenced) that the only segment of the draft that produces good NHL players at a better than 50% clip is picks 1-5 (and I’ve heard some say 1-4). The fact that both Goc and Kaspar have seen NHL time is more of a testament to the Sharks’ drafting ability than a knock on it. Are they great players? No. But neither are a whole host of other players that play in the NHL that were drafted in the 20s of the first round. Just to cherry pick a few: Dan Paille, Jiri Novotny, Jeff Woywitka, Carlo Colaiacovo, Tim Gleason, and the list goes on. That’s just 2001 and 2002, and there are a whole bunch of players in this segment that have never played in the NHL at all.

I feel like this has turned into a personal hobby horse, but all first round draft picks do not turn into great NHL players, and we should not have that expectation.

The Sharks have been backed into a corner with having to be a great drafting team. What with free agents avoiding San Jose like the plague, but also because historically the Sharks management has been reluctant to be big spenders. The cost of running a franchise in SJ has to be higher than in Detroit.

Also, when you are a dynasty team like Detroit, it’s a much larger draw for players when you know that you are going to have a shot at the cup every year. I think signing a guy like Malhotra and being able to attract a guy like Heatley is a sign that players are starting to take the Sharks more seriously. All the more reason to give the finger to guys like Redden, Souray, and Campbell.

Of course, all of my thinking is bull if we let Pavelski, Setoguchi, Marleau, and Nabby walk next year! :D

Wow, what a great write-up! It’s an interesting piece, to say the least. However, there were a couple of points that I don’t think were addressed…

1. Most people would agree that the sooner a player is taken in the draft, the sooner he is to making the NHL. If the Sharks draft picks have been happening 18 picks sooner, on average, they are at least marginally closer to joining the big club.

2. Detroit has some notoriously bad luck with drafting in the early rounds (late rounds, not so much). I’m not sure it’s the fairest comparison to use Detroit only. I’d like to compare with other teams that have had nearly the same draft position and, in a separate comparison, nearly the same length of stay in the minors.

I knew the Sharks had always drafted well – which is, like as mentioned before, pretty much the only reason the Sharks have been a contender for all these years – but that’s interesting about how the draft picks are mostly panning out in the NHL, especially in comparison to Detroit. I mean, we haven’t gotten any generational or star players through the draft yet (Marleau and Nabokov somewhat excluded), just a bunch of good players that can be roster players on most, if not all, NHL teams.

And really, while I have been advocating for letting prospects stay in Worcester a little longer than they normally would, I’ve found that the Sharks are pretty good about calling up guys when they should (exceptions being Carle, and perhaps Bernier). Setoguchi was called up and got two goals in his first game. Yeah, he was fairly unimpressive after that, but he was a guy whose worth ethic was in question – that stint in the NHL made him realize he needed to work harder over the summer, and boom! 31 goal season for Seto. Pavelski scored 26 points in 16 games in Worcester – hard to justify not bringing a guy that produces like that up. Vlasic could have been a prime example, but now he’s regarded as one of the best young defensive-minded defensemen in the NHL.

Sure, those examples could be because of the type of guy the Sharks like to draft – guys who may not have the physical tools or the speed, but they have this incredible hockey sense – but it still suggests that the Sharks are generally right when they call someone up.

Oh, and some people are saying Demers might be a dark horse candidate for the Calder. Who knew?

And geez, this line makes me sad. Well, at least guys want to be traded here, if not signed!

When your team’s biggest free agent acquisition in history is a tie between Rob Blake (at 38) and Jeremy Roenick (at 37), it almost doesn’t need to be said… your team has trouble signing free agents.

Another team worth analyzing is the Ducks. If memory serves, there was a stat that ran in terms of the number of team prospects that stuck with the team on both the Sharks and the Ducks. The Sharks had something like 9 prospects playing in a game 2 or 3 seasons ago (prospects in this case being a player the team had drafted, so guys like Marleau and Michalek were on that list). The Ducks also had a boatload, although the majority of them were unsigned college FAs. Somewhat different paths, but it led to a Stanley Cup for them, so it’s hard to argue.

I think our success with drafting and calling up players earlier than the norm is a combination of luck (a significant part of good drafting anyway) and an incredible coaching staff at all levels. As others mentioned, there’s a reason these players get called up when they do, and most of them have continued to show why, having success at the NHL level after tearing it up in Worcester. And if they don’t, well, that’s why the shuttle goes two ways!

I’ve really approved of almost all the Shark’s more recent draft picks, except for KASPAR, that bum. I go to Worcester games pretty regularly, so I get to see these young guys in action a lot, and for the most part they get moved up when I’d expect them too. I still think Mcginn should stay down a while longer though. Vesce on the other hand – and I know he wasn’t drafted by the Sharks – deserves his call up. Dude’s got some skills, and I think he can make a more immediate impact in the bigs than Mcginn, regardless of his lack of NHL productivity last year. When Pavs comes back I’m thinking Mcginn should get sent down, and Vesce should stay. That’s just my opinion though.