BOV: Patrick Marleau

I’ve read in several different places that players like playing in San Jose not just because the team is great, but also for the privacy and climate. San Jose has arguably one of the strongest, most passionate, and loyal fanbases in the league, but unlike other hockey obsessed markets, we give our players an exceptional level of privacy that they wouldn’t get in say New York or Canada or any other big market. The climate is also a big pull, it may be a little surprising, but a lot of Sharks love the bay area weather, they hate snowy, freezing winters. Not to mention a great organization. I think I remember reading somewhere that some Sharks have said they took pay cuts to come play here.

The minute I heard about Savard’s deal, I thought to myself, this is exactly how we can retain Marleau – long contract with low salary cap hit, for all these reasons you mention. However, we might be talking a big of a bigger cap hit due to Marleau’s age, or longer contract.

Here is the problem, however. I think Marleau’s fate depends heavily on the outcome of this post season. If it is another early exit, I think DW will attempt to rebuild a team entirely, and my guess is the first candidate to go will be Nabby, followed by Patty. This season and the future of this team depends on what happens in April and May – if we’re still playing in July, it is safe to say we finally found the winning formula. However, if not, you have to think about new pieces and perhaps blowing up squad altogether, and you can’t do that without letting Marleau and Nabokov walk.

So the issue here, what if our wildest dreams come true this spring, and Marleau wins the Cup, playing a major role in playoffs – perhaps even Conn Smythe. How do we retain him then? Savard’s contract will not be enough. Imagine even worse situation from that angle – Patty plays a key role in SC victory, as well as in the Olympics?

So I think DW has a very tough decision to make here.

That is assuming Marleau wants to stay here..

One problem I see with signing Patty to a Savard-like contract. DW has gone on the record stating that he doesn’t believe long term, front loaded contracts jive with the spirit of the CBA and therefore won’t offer them. I would like to think he changes his mind for Patty, but if Doug says he doesn’t do Savard-like contracts, I picture Patty signing for 4-years at 5.5 mil each or walking.

I do not think DW and the team are worrying about this now, but I would expect Marleau to do something similar. He loves the town and wants to win, and can help by staying long term at a deal such as Savard’s. Now, would we do the same to Thornton when his contract is up?

Touched upon this right after the Sharks traded for Heatley and was digging through the cap numbers.

I had planned on writing a piece earlier this summer that was scrapped after the barrage of Marleau rumors, but what’s the likelihood of DW channeling his inner Ken Holland and signing Patty to a long-term Johan Franzen type deal? If you want to keep him and field a competitive bottom line/pairings, that might be the way to go. If you extend him into the seven year range you’re looking at roughly $4.0 M a year. That would go a long way, and if he continues or improves on his totals from last season (not hard to expect if he plays with Heatley/Thornton), I think you see Wilson consider doing so.

Here’s the point of the block quote— IAmJoe left a comment explaining that it would probably take 10-11 years to get Marleau down to that ballpark, and while I think he overestimated the length a bit (9 seems about right to me), it seems like that would be more feasible. I also think I initially underestimated the amount he would get for seven years, and think it would be more than $4.0 M flat.

 Like you mentioned, Marleau’s much more versatile than Savard and is nearly two years younger. He has more “prime” years left in him than Savard will, and the fact that his goal totals have been higher in the last two years also bump up his value. Not sure how bloodthirsty Patty’s agent will be (if he resembles the client he probably uses sign language in negotiations), but I wouldn’t be surprised if the fact that Marleau will be playing for Team Canada and Savard wasn’t even invited to camp will likely be thrown out there too, no matter how irrelevant it may be in the grand scheme of things.

They’re decent comparables I think, but Marleau’s capital assets will likely depreciate at a much slower rate over the next five years (e.g. once a player hits the age of 35 or so you’re probably better off using double declining balance vs. straight line). It’s hard to gauge the unknown variables of his family and loyalty to the organization in monetary terms, but I would have to assume they’re there even with all the shenanigans of this past summer. Hopefully that comes into play.

All this being said, I’m completely on board with signing him to a long term deal even if it means nine years, or a bigger chunk of change than Savard for seven (I’m thinking it would come out to somewhere around $4.7 M if that’s the case)— he’s well worth it, and if it keeps the Cup window open a little longer with Pavelski/Setoguchi etc. up for new deals then you have to hope Wilson goes for it.

Since Doug Wilson’s interview on KNBR, I have had the personal belief that if there is no Cup this year, Wilson lets Patty walk. Not because he’s a bad player, but because he’s a $6M man at the moment, and is still around a $4M in his next contract. In any event, Patty is a big, expensive cap piece. Pavs and Seto are due for raises, Nabby and Joe are coming off the books soon, and some of the kids from Worscester are getting to the point where they might stick soon. In addition, Manny’s a FA next season, and he’s making a case for signing him to a contract. Also, we need another big, physical defenseman.

There are lots of ways Patty stays with the Sharks. To stay with THIS PARTICULAR SET OF PLAYERS, there’s very few scenarios in which a cap hit of $4M lets this team stay intact. I know keeping Manny is a dream, but Pavs and Seto are going to command between $3M and $4M. We need Patty, Joe and Nabby to all take discounts, again, assuming Wilson decides to bring all 3 back. If my memory is accurate, those guys are currently $18M against the cap combined. That’s an awful lot of room to rebuild a team.

Patty absolutely deserves a contract in the neighborhood of $4.2M. I will not question that. I just honestly don’t know if this team can afford to give him one.

Brass Tax/Brass Tacks
Gotcha.

I chose “equal” but for the reason Plank said above. If it’s a 7 year contract, about $4.2M. I don’t see Patty playing into his 40’s, so why not offer him a contract that toes that line and bring it down a bit? $3.8M for 10 maybe?
6, 6, 6, 6, 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1
As long as he begins this new contract before he turns 35, we can buy him out of the last couple years if he doesn’t want to play at the end.