Sharktistical Analysis: Even Strength City
All year we have touched base upon the importance of even strength play, labeling it a good indicator on how a team will fare in the postseason. For the uninitiated, a brief refresher course will serve you well.
Two areas that we should tend to look at heading into the playoffs are goaltending and even strength play. Goaltending is an obvious choice, but even strength play is nearly as important. With the referees whistles in their pockets (or stashed somewhere else if you want to be a smartass), cashing in on the scoreboard when it's all even is the most accessible way to advance to the next round.
The next one is in mid-December, when the Sharks had hit a skid:
Once you reach the playoffs it becomes a lot harder to rely on the power play to get wins as the games are generally called a lot tighter; what was a penalty in December may get overlooked in May. This isn't to say that these units are unimportant- they may be even more of an asset considering the rarity of 5 v 4 situations, but the fact that they are less prevalent makes them less of a "crutch" to fall back on. Secondly, the majority of time spent on the ice is played at even strength. The Sharks need to generate scoring opportunities 5 on 5, which is something they've had difficulty doing. Hence the difficulty winning games.
Snapshots to say the least, but as a Shark fan, it's usually a positive to have a short memory (/obligatory second round joke). Jump like Van Halen in 1984* for a look at some even strength stats.
*It's no Panama, but I'll be damned if I miss an opportunity to throw a shout out to one of the greatest bands to ever grace this planet.
The Sharks currently rank as a mediocre team in terms of even strength goals for- 18th to be exact, with 135 to their name. While that is frightening in some aspects (a point we will touch on later this week), it doesn't tell the whole story. In order to fully understand how San Jose stacks up in the even strength department, a look at goal differential is necessary.
2008-2009 Regular Season
| Rank | Team | EV Goal Dif. |
| 1 | Boston | +50 |
| 2 | New Jersey | +40 |
| 3 | Detroit | +32 |
| 4 | Chicago | +25 |
| 5 | Vancouver | +23 |
| 6 | Columbus | +21 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | +19 |
| 8 | San Jose | +19 |
| 9 | Washington | +18 |
| 10 | Calgary | +11 |
| 11 | Carolina | +8 |
| 12 | Florida | +8 |
| 13 | Anaheim | +5 |
| 14 | Edmonton | +4 |
| 15 | Philadelphia | +1 |
| 16 | Montreal | -3 |
| 17 | Dallas | -7 |
| 18 | Nashville | -7 |
| 19 | Buffalo | -9 |
| 20 | Ottawa | -11 |
| 21 | New York Ran. | -16 |
| 22 | St. Louis | -17 |
| 23 | Atlanta | -18 |
| 24 | Minnesota | -19 |
| 25 | Tampa Bay | -21 |
| 26 | Toronto | -23 |
| 27 | Phoenix | -27 |
| 28 | Colorado | -29 |
| 29 | Los Angeles | -30 |
| 30 | New York Isl. | -47 |
Please note that the top 8 teams in the Western Conference in even strength differential are all in the playoffs, while 7 of 8 from the East are in. Those are the teams in bold.
Looks like we're on to something here.
Glancing at the list, the top ten teams are all viable contenders to win the Cup, a point that could have been made before we saw their even strength numbers. Boston and New Jersey have gotten good goaltending, Detroit is an offensive juggernaut, San Jose has been strong all year etc. But does this translate come playoff time?
2006-2007 Regular Season
| Rank | Team | EV Goal Dif. | Playoffs |
| 1 | Buffalo | +61 | Lost in ECF |
| 2 | Ottawa | +53 | Lost in SCF |
| 3 | Detroit | +51 | Lost in WCF |
| 6 | Anaheim | +23 | SCF Champion |
2007-2008 Regular Season
| Rank | Team | EV Goal Dif. | Playoffs |
| 1 | Detroit | +44 | SCF Champion |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | +19 | Lost in SCF |
| 6 | Dallas | +15 | Lost in WCF |
| 22 | Philadelphia | -11 | Lost in ECF |
Apart from Philadelphia, it seems that top notch even strength play during the regular season has been a good precursor to postseason success.
We'll take a look at this more in depth on Friday, but I thought it would be a good idea to get the juices flowing for the upcoming tilt against Chicago considering they have better numbers. Oh, and that whole possible playoff opponent thing had a bit to do with it as well.
Go Sharks.
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uh yes
whenever the sharks aren’t scoring even strength i’m worried. if they aren’t doing it now, then how the hell are they going to do it during the playoffs on the road?
"It aint over till the fat lady sings." - Not Yogi Berra
Good stuff
I think the strong correlation of even strength differential to being in the playoffs is very real, but I wonder if it’s the strongest correlator. If I correlate to points, which isn’t necessarily the same as a playoff berth, overall differential is actually first (0.93) followed by 5/5 differential (0.83), then, for whatever reason, winning % when trailing after the first period (0.82).
i'm curious
which stat has the weakest correlation? :)
by a10dency2ask on Mar 25, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Here’s the whole list I calculated for:
- Goal differential – 0.93
- EV goal differential – 0.84
- Winning % when trailing after the 1st period – 0.82
- Winning % when outshot – 0.79
- Goals Scored – 0.77
- Winning when Scoring first – 0.69
- Shots – 0.68
- Winning % when outshooting – 0.68
- Goals Against – 0.62
- Faceoff %- 0.56
- PP% + PK% – 0.52
- PP% – .50
- Shots against – 0.38
- PK% – 0.18
interesting that PK and faceoffs are so low
by a10dency2ask on Mar 25, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Very good stuff here mepex. I’ll definitely take a closer look at this for Friday and try to factor it in.
Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated
I’m amazed at how low the Rangers are, especially considering they’re in the playoffs and have that 29th ranked power play. Their defense and goaltending must be the only things keeping them in it (as evidenced by their league-leading penalty kill).
But good stuff here. Makes me want the Sharks to score a shitload of even strength goals against Chicago tonight, and not allowing any themselves. I’m thinking that 20 goals would be a good start ;)

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