Fear The Fin: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: College Football Preseason Top 25 Rankings

Sharktistical Analysis: Even Strength City

All year we have touched base upon the importance of even strength play, labeling it a good indicator on how a team will fare in the postseason. For the uninitiated, a brief refresher course will serve you well.

Two areas that we should tend to look at heading into the playoffs are goaltending and even strength play. Goaltending is an obvious choice, but even strength play is nearly as important. With the referees whistles in their pockets (or stashed somewhere else if you want to be a smartass), cashing in on the scoreboard when it's all even is the most accessible way to advance to the next round.

- Bubble Boys of The West, 2/27

The next one is in mid-December, when the Sharks had hit a skid:

Once you reach the playoffs it becomes a lot harder to rely on the power play to get wins as the games are generally called a lot tighter; what was a penalty in December may get overlooked in May. This isn't to say that these units are unimportant- they may be even more of an asset considering the rarity of 5 v 4 situations, but the fact that they are less prevalent makes them less of a "crutch" to fall back on. Secondly, the majority of time spent on the ice is played at even strength. The Sharks need to generate scoring opportunities 5 on 5, which is something they've had difficulty doing. Hence the difficulty winning games.

- Even Strength Play, 12/22

Snapshots to say the least, but as a Shark fan, it's usually a positive to have a short memory (/obligatory second round joke). Jump like Van Halen in 1984* for a look at some even strength stats.

*It's no Panama, but I'll be damned if I miss an opportunity to throw a shout out to one of the greatest bands to ever grace this planet.

Star-divide

The Sharks currently rank as a mediocre team in terms of even strength goals for- 18th to be exact, with 135 to their name. While that is frightening in some aspects (a point we will touch on later this week), it doesn't tell the whole story. In order to fully understand how San Jose stacks up in the even strength department, a look at goal differential is necessary.

2008-2009 Regular Season

Rank Team EV Goal Dif.
1 Boston +50
2 New Jersey +40
3 Detroit +32
4 Chicago +25
5 Vancouver +23
6 Columbus +21
7 Pittsburgh +19
8 San Jose +19
9 Washington +18
10 Calgary +11
11 Carolina +8
12 Florida +8
13 Anaheim +5
14 Edmonton +4
15 Philadelphia +1
16 Montreal -3
17 Dallas -7
18 Nashville -7
19 Buffalo -9
20 Ottawa -11
21 New York Ran. -16
22 St. Louis -17
23 Atlanta -18
24 Minnesota -19
25 Tampa Bay -21
26 Toronto -23
27 Phoenix -27
28 Colorado -29
29 Los Angeles -30
30 New York Isl. -47

 

Please note that the top 8 teams in the Western Conference in even strength differential are all in the playoffs, while 7 of 8 from the East are in. Those are the teams in bold.

Looks like we're on to something here.

Glancing at the list, the top ten teams are all viable contenders to win the Cup, a point that could have been made before we saw their even strength numbers. Boston and New Jersey have gotten good goaltending, Detroit is an offensive juggernaut, San Jose has been strong all year etc. But does this translate come playoff time?

2006-2007 Regular Season

Rank Team EV Goal Dif. Playoffs
1 Buffalo +61 Lost in ECF
2 Ottawa +53 Lost in SCF
3 Detroit +51 Lost in WCF
6 Anaheim +23 SCF Champion

 

2007-2008 Regular Season

Rank Team EV Goal Dif. Playoffs
1 Detroit +44 SCF Champion
4 Pittsburgh +19 Lost in SCF
6 Dallas +15 Lost in WCF
22 Philadelphia -11 Lost in ECF

 

Apart from Philadelphia, it seems that top notch even strength play during the regular season has been a good precursor to postseason success.

We'll take a look at this more in depth on Friday, but I thought it would be a good idea to get the juices flowing for the upcoming tilt against Chicago considering they have better numbers. Oh, and that whole possible playoff opponent thing had a bit to do with it as well.

 

Go Sharks.

Poll
Does the Sharks even strength play worry you about the postseason?
Yes
18 votes
No
17 votes
I'm a Sharks fan. Pessimism is my right hand man.
61 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

uh yes

whenever the sharks aren’t scoring even strength i’m worried. if they aren’t doing it now, then how the hell are they going to do it during the playoffs on the road?

"It aint over till the fat lady sings." - Not Yogi Berra

by serrapadre716 on Mar 25, 2009 7:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Good stuff

I think the strong correlation of even strength differential to being in the playoffs is very real, but I wonder if it’s the strongest correlator. If I correlate to points, which isn’t necessarily the same as a playoff berth, overall differential is actually first (0.93) followed by 5/5 differential (0.83), then, for whatever reason, winning % when trailing after the first period (0.82).

by mepex on Mar 25, 2009 9:03 AM PDT reply actions  

I should say the above numbers are for this season only, but overall goal differential was the highest correlator to points for last season too.

by mepex on Mar 25, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

i'm curious

which stat has the weakest correlation? :)

by a10dency2ask on Mar 25, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Here’s the whole list I calculated for:

  1. Goal differential – 0.93
  2. EV goal differential – 0.84
  3. Winning % when trailing after the 1st period – 0.82
  4. Winning % when outshot – 0.79
  5. Goals Scored – 0.77
  6. Winning when Scoring first – 0.69
  7. Shots – 0.68
  8. Winning % when outshooting – 0.68
  9. Goals Against – 0.62
  10. Faceoff %- 0.56
  11. PP% + PK% – 0.52
  12. PP% – .50
  13. Shots against – 0.38
  14. PK% – 0.18

by mepex on Mar 25, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

interesting that PK and faceoffs are so low

by a10dency2ask on Mar 25, 2009 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Very good stuff here mepex. I’ll definitely take a closer look at this for Friday and try to factor it in.

Fear The Fin: Where The Second Round Is Overrated

by Mr. Plank on Mar 25, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m amazed at how low the Rangers are, especially considering they’re in the playoffs and have that 29th ranked power play. Their defense and goaltending must be the only things keeping them in it (as evidenced by their league-leading penalty kill).

But good stuff here. Makes me want the Sharks to score a shitload of even strength goals against Chicago tonight, and not allowing any themselves. I’m thinking that 20 goals would be a good start ;)

by mymclife on Mar 25, 2009 2:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

The Official SB Nation blog of the San Jose Sharks.
Start posting about the Sharks »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Now, that Niemi has been signed, who might be traded, and who do you want to keep?
Small
New Guy
Irbe_2_small
DW's 3 way?
Small
Interesting article on Mitchell's recovery/LA signing
Goldenseals_small
Heat WAVE OT Thread
Stevedave_small
First look at Konrad Abeltshauser this season
Small
question for us Sharks fans
340x_small
The Weekend of Kaberle Thread
Vinnydamp_small
CSN Authentic Post-Game Barbeque
Sharks_small
So who is the next captain?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

PHILADELPHIA - MAY 16:  A fan of the Philadelphia Flyers holds up a sign reading "Next Goalie" behind goalie Carey Price #32 of the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Wachovia Center on May 16, 2010 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Habs Finally Lock Up Carey Price, Sign Goalie To Two-Year Deal

National Hockey League commissioner Gary Bettman answers questions during a pre-game media availability before the Pittsburgh Penguins season opener against the New York Rangers in a NHL hockey game in Pittsburgh, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar) +25 updates

Ultimatum? NHL Reportedly Threatens To Toss Out Kovalchuk, Luongo Deals Without NHLPA Concessions

Photo +1 updates

Report: Donald Fehr Hands NHLPA List Of Conditions On Becoming Union Leader

More from SBNation.com >


Managing Editor

N3625599_32203920_2275-1_small Mr. Plank

Editor

Mandalorian_small TCY

Authors

Pattypavslarge_small mymclife

Ovechkin-russia-080518-584_small Ivano M