Fuzzy Math... maybe?
by Mr. Plank on Jul 2, 2009 7:05 AM PDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintThis serves as a companion to this post- I'm trying to crunch the numbers right now, and needed to put it on paper the internet for the sake of my mental health.
Here's where we are starting off today, July 2nd:
5.3 M in cap space, six forwards and a backup goaltender need to be signed.
If we're assuming McGinn will crack the roster, that brings us to 4.3 (his cap hit is .997). When mentioning Boucher's departure, David Pollak of Working The Corners stated, "All that presumes, of course, [is] that the Sharks see Gustavsson or Thomas Greiss as their likely back-up this fall." [link]. For the sake of discussion, either goaltender's cap hit will be estimated at $.800 M.
$3.5 M in cap space, five forwards need to be signed.
Once Ryane Clowe's reported deal is cleared with league offices, I assume he will make somewhere in that range. Let's slot him at $3.0 M per year. [Plank Edit: Clowe re-signs for "north" $3.5 M per year- numbers in this post are updated under the assumption it is worth $3.5]
$0.0 M in cap space, four forwards need to be signed.
Not much to play with here, to say the very least. A list of potential trade prospects and their cap numbers:
Jonathan Cheechoo (3.0), Milan Michalek (4.3), Christian Ehrhoff (3.1), Brad Lukowich (1.57), Patrick Marleau (6.3), Douglas Murray (2.5), Evgeni Nabokov (5.38)
Let's engage in a rousing game of hypotheticals for a moment:
- Cheechoo, Michalek, Ehrhoff, and Lukowich are moved. After those deals occur, the Sharks are left with roughly $11.97 M in cap room. In order to fill out the roster, San Jose must bring in six forwards and two defensemen. That is $1.5 M per player.
- Nabokov, Cheechoo, and Lukowich are moved. After those deals occur, the Sharks are left with roughly $9.95 M in cap room. In order to fill out the roster, San Jose must bring in five forwards, one defenseman, and one goaltender (presumably a starter). That is $1.42 M per player.
- Marleau, Lukowich, and Michalek are moved. After those deals occur, the Sharks are left with roughly $12.17 M in cap room. In order to fill out the roster, San Jose must bring in six forwards and one defenseman. That is $1.74 M per player.
Essentially, what these numbers are saying is the available space is minimal at best, and therefore a) trade value of all of these players could decrease once opposing GM's realize the cap complications b) it may not matter because the Sharks must take less net salary in a deal to fill the roster and c) expecting a fair return (let alone an upgrade) in a trade is not a guarantee.
Furthermore, d) San Jose may be renamed Worcester next season with the influx of minor leaguers being called up e) our free agency targets are going to have to be in the sub 2.00 range and f) Nabokov and Marleau are definitely not off the table, regardless of whether or not it is in the best interest of the organization's on-ice product.
Other Notes: As mentioned before, Lukowich is where this needs to begin- you can't be paying above $1.5 M for a healthy scratch blueliner... Torrey Mitchell must be re-signed... 2008-2009 was the first season the organization spent to the salary cap maximum... Setoguchi, Pavelski, Marleau, and Nabokov will be free agents next offseason, with Seto and Pavs due for raises... the salary cap is predicted to drop for 2010-2011... We looked at the cap earlier this season, but may have underestimated it... grumble grumble...
We haven't hit critical mass just yet- San Jose is still a playoff team. However, expecting that at the end of this month we will have improved the roster from last year's version may be a bit of a pipe dream. Doug Wilson is going to have to get pretty creative for that to happen.
Here's to hope.
Go Sharks.
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Nothing like starting the day with bad news.
It can only get better from here. Right?
It takes a big man to cry and it takes a bigger man to laugh at that man. -Jamie Baker
NIEDKLERYARYER
oer sometoethin lie kthat!!!! -Mr. K
For all those who wanted changes...
Things are going to happen. Pieces are going to have to move.
The Huskins deal baffles me, because not only was the cost far and above what I expected, but it also puts the Sharks in a position of weakness with other teams. Our cap situation is crazy bad right now, and once Clowe signs, it’s not going to look any better. That throws our bargaining power straight out the window.
Like Plank said above, at least three players are going to have to be moved, and that’s not for equal value, folks. We have to attain cap space somehow in these next few weeks, and that doesn’t come easily. So don’t expect game changing players coming back, we’d be optimistic to hope for some young players with upside coming back in any deal. Guarantee: The 2010 NHL Draft is going to be alot busier than the 2009 one.
Point is, this team isn’t going to be better than it was last season. Plain and simple.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
what about those of us who didn't want big changes!
I’m kind of frustrated at the way things have gone down…it seems like our window has closed. Chicago has definitely passed us I would say, although that doesn’t guarantee success/failure in the playoffs. The Huskins deal is a headscratcher for sure.
Our window isn’t closed, because the team is still young and good.
Who knows, maybe it’ll be good to not have the target on the Sharks back next year. We saw how that worked.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I think we all need to just relax
and give DW some credit. He’s not gonna just throw around money/contracts with our cap situation.
Oh, so that's where you edit your signature
I mean...
It’s not like he’s going to sign a 30 year old injury prone sixth/seventh defenseman with two years of NHL experience to a $1.7MM/yr contract!
oh, wait…
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t call breaking a foot as injury prone at all. Those kinds of injuries happen. If you’re worried about injuries, then you should be much more concerned about us re-signing Clowe. Huskins is a NHL-caliber defenseman with size, offense and defensive capabilities and playoff experience. Just take a deep breath and realize that there’s plenty of time to make things fit. Wilson knows what he’s doing and has proven so since he was named GM.
Oh, so that's where you edit your signature
I am well aware of Clowe’s injury issues.
I know Wilson knows what he’s doing, but I’m not sure I agree with what he is doing to this point, and that’s just my opinion.
Maybe “injury prone” is harsh, but he’s played in parts of only three NHL seasons, and most all reports list him as a “depth guy”. I would have prefered a different option.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions
i'm with you TCY
but then again nothign has really happened yet. Really just the Huskins deal seems like a major misstep right now, but we’ll see what comes of it
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Exactly, nothing has happened yet.
Arguably, no one was going to come out of the woodwork to steal Huskins from the Sharks, so this deal could have been postponed a few days.
I’m mad that they practically blew all their cap space BEFORE making any roster moves that would free up any salary.
I’m mad that as of today (if you count Clowe and McGinn), we have 9 forwards signed. That includes Jody Shelley, who barely even played last year when healthy.
I’m mad that the Sharks, in need of forward depth, reached on two low round defensemen with their first two picks.
I just haven’t been happy. I trust Doug, but I can have my opinion on his moves. Just because he’s made some solid trades over the years doesn’t mean that I have to trust his every move, or lack there of.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
can we trade huskins
now that we’ve signed him? hahaha
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it’s unfair to pass judgment after one move. There’s a lot of adjusting left to be made and it will happen. I think his number make prove his value as more then a depth guy and I truly believe he’ll prove himself a valuable addition. You’re absolutely entitled to question what he does, but what I’m preaching is that we need to wait until the team is much closer to being finalized for the start of next season before jumping down his throat.
Oh, so that's where you edit your signature
I know, and I’m not. But I think it’s kinda odd that you say I’m bit allowed to question a move before all moves are made. It’s a reactionary right.
I know Doug will fix it, and something will happen. However, so far, not happy.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
•Marleau, Lukowich, and Michalek are moved.
Ducks fans will accept this offer, I think. :)
http://www.battleofcali.com/
Hmph- as if knocking us out in the first round wasn’t good enough? Feel free to go ahead and twist that knife Sleek.
Reaaaaal appreciated :)
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
how about this
ducks get-nabby and michalek
sharks get-hiller and perry
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
NOOOOO
I don’t care, I don’t want the goalie-attacking Perry on my team. At all. Ever.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
jonas hiller and bobby ryan?
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes. That sounds good.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
I don’t care, I don’t want the goalie-attacking Perry on my team. At all. Ever.
Don’t worry, I don’t think Ducks fans (well, myself) are ready to part ways with Sir Douchey just yet. I’m quite a fan of Perry’s ability to drive rival fans insane with rage. My Red Wings buddy wants to drive up to Perry’s door and punch him in the nuts.
Fantastic.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
I’m sure if the Sharks drafted Perry I’d like him, but he’s attacked Nabokov and Boucher too many times.
Oh, and that time when Blake speared him in the nuts still ranks as one of my favorite moments. No offense, or anything.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
I suppose that’s OK. My favorite Blake memory was when he scored the Ducks’ first goal of the 2006-07 season into his own net — a nice start to what would eventually become a cup year.
Of course, they had to credit that own-goal to a Duck — good ol’ Corey Perry.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
So I guess it all evens out in the end.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
There really is something to be said for having a player on your team who opposing teams hate to play against, even though he may be a complete douche like Corey Perry or Chris Pronger.
I imagine it must be extremely fulfilling as a fan (as well as a player) to be booed mercilessly in opponents buildings. That’s a type of respect I don’t think the Sharks have had for awhile, and while it may not correlate with postseason success, I don’t think it hurts.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Not since the Sutter era, with Buster and Mush
Ville Nieminen was a pest, but I don’t believe he truly drew the ire of opposing fans during his short time in teal. If I recall right, he was relatively well behaved as a Shark.
Also, I’m reminded how there was a recent report (in SI?) stating how the media voted the Sharks as the No.1 friendliest team. I’m not sure I dig that rep.
I'm a happy seal
by SwisherThresher on Jul 2, 2009 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, and Pepe of course
But he was an old dog – mostly all bark and no bite – who failed to ruffle any feathers outside of a few Wings fans still stuck in ’96.
I'm a happy seal
by SwisherThresher on Jul 2, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Almost worth it
But it will take more for us to take captin elbows. How about Nabby, Michalek & Luko for Hiller, Wisniewski & Ebbett.
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
Ugh..this is exactly why the Huskins deal blew me away...
1.7 per for a Dman who made 600k last season and was injured for most of it. It just doesn’t make sense, especially with our cap room.
I think Plank’s rundown is a pretty good one. However, there’s still some options. If Ehrhoff is the Dman moved (yes, Luko is our worst D man, but he also makes the least), then thats a 3 mil boost to our salary room, and we’d still have 6 D men (our 7th could just be a floater between woo-stah and SJ, if need be…a Joslin type). And if we got back a 4th line type for him (and a pick, or something) that was making around 1 mil…then we’ll at least have 2.5 mil for 3 forwards (assuming McGinn, Griess, and Clowe are similar to what Plank wrote above).
I’m not saying things aren’t troubling, or that what I’ve said is even feasable, but its possible for us to get in under the cap without too much of a hit in talent, methinks. Yes, we may go sideways as far as talent goes in our reshuffle…but if we go sideways in talent and forward in heart and grit and passion, then we win, right?
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
Waking up to this post is like stepping in cat puke first thing in the AM.
Change is a comin’, boys ans girls, and it’s going to be big.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
here, here!
It is a long summer, though. And I think DW’s patience might pay off in the long run as various clubs start shedding salary after realizing their in way over their heads in terms of cap hits.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
i hope so...
things are looking iffy in terms of our own cap situation!
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions
i can understand why DW expresses so much anger though
they were really going for it hardcore last season, and now we are dealing with some consequences
what consequences specifically?
The Boyle trade wasn’t meant for just one season. Blake has been brought back, and I think he would’ve come back even if we did win it all last season based on his regular season numbers. We gave up a few prospects at the trading deadline, but received two players that became UFAs.
Oh, so that's where you edit your signature
consequences highlighted in this very post
there just isn’t enough money and remaining assets left to build upon what was started last season. there isn’t a lot of wiggle room, unless we unload very important players to our team for a number of cheap role players, or choose to rely entirely on AHL players (our farm system is not the strongest to begin with, especially after all the prospect trades we did at the Trade Deadlines)
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it’s more realizing that the team we’ve had for the past few seasons if not going to be the team we ice come the start of the season. Some players we’re used to seeing will be gone. The Sharks aren’t being blown up, but their under performance has made nearly all of them fair game in terms of trades. Almost no one is safe. That’s a pretty big consequence.
One could argue it’s also long over due. Many of the same key piece have under preformed before. Maybe we should have shaken things up a bit sooner? Even that seems hard to justify, given the Sharks regular season performance last year.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
definitely a good argument
although I don’t think anyone could have predicted the team-wide malaise this post-season. It definitely seemed like the right step at the time. Just personally, if DW is really looking at Ehrhoff and Marleau as the types of guys to unload, then I think we’re looking at the wrong people. But then I’m not a GM, so I could be wrong. Plus, as I’ve said before, sometimes the cup comes in strange ways, and just because the team is worse on paper doesn’t mean it’s over
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s not that he wants to move them, but there aren’t many on the Sharks roster who can not only earn you a salary dump but also a NHL regular and some pot sweetners in return. That’s the reality of the situation.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
That’s a good point.
Given that we spent to the max last season, was this situation even remotely avoidable? Or would we have ended up here regardless?
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
I don’t believe we have a lack on talent in the lineup. I think maybe we just need different talents to be brought to the spotlight. Also, there is the possibility that he’s waiting to make any larger moves until 1) the buying frenzy dies down and 2) Gustavsson is signed, wherever he goes
Originally a NorthStars fan, but Modano is all that remains.
I wish one salary would have been moved at the draft in order to free up some space- it allows DW more bargaining power when attempting to make a trade.
Besides that, theres no harm in DW waiting to move players (like you mentioned)- teams who missed out on a blueliner or forward during free agency are going to be more “desperate” to possibly give up more than they would have a week ago. Instead of the Sharks having a guy who’s on a top twenty list of GM’s desires (Michalek, or whatever), now he’s a top five.
It’s a sound strategy, and like what’s been echoed here before, Boyle was landed on the fourth of July once the market cooled. There’s still time.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Boyle was landed on the fourth of July once the market cooled. There’s still time.
Exactly. Tomorrow is the three year anniversary of “Pronger Day” in Anaheim.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
A day celebrated in So Cal but jeered through the rest of the U.S.A
and parts of Canada
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
i think we always end up here
after all the trading away picks and prospects, there was always going to be a tipping point
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
It’s definitely a product of the salary cap age- teams have windows to win the Cup, and during that window I think it’s more than acceptable to mortgage a bit of your future in order to get a championship. That’s the ultimate goal for a sports franchise.
People are likely going to bash the Moen/Huskins deal if Bonino or Pilmieir pan out to be good NHL players, but I think it was the right decision. We needed a third line checking presence, and while Semenov had made strides towards the tail end of the year, depth on D is essential for a long playoff run (which was presumed to be the case heading into the postseason). It addressed needs we had at the time, and coupled with the season San Jose was having, set the team up to win the Cup.
Sounds and smells kosher to me.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
I’m going to wait on assuming the team will be “worse on paper” until all moves are made. It’s a frustrating cap situation we find ourselves in, but until all the pieces have fallen into place, I don’t think we’re really going to have a clear picture of what DW is trying to do or what we’re going to have come game time.
I’m confused by some of the rumblings about moving guys like Marleau, (and yes, Ehrhoff too), but given the DW didn’t release his “autopsy findings” were sort of up shit’s creek when it comes to trying to understand the motivation behind those rumors.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
which autopsy results will be revealed 1st
michael jackson, or the 2008-2009 sharks?
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
although I don’t think anyone could have predicted the team-wide malaise this post-season. It definitely seemed like the right step at the time.
I’m definitely with you there- throwing all your chips on the table was, and always will be, the right move in my opinion. There’s a reason San Jose had the best record in the regular season, and while they ultimately floundered in the playoffs, there’s no way DW could have predicted that. He put together an excellent roster.
I’m still against blowing it all up- this team has a window open to compete for a Cup. It’s a quality top six, and a damn good D corps.
Hard decisions are going to have to be made, but we’re still a playoff caliber team unless DW loses his mind this offseason (which he won’t). I’m just not sure who’s going to be around to be there.
/back to work because my boss is going to kill me
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
And I agree as well. By every indication, this was a team that was going to go all the way. There was a good mix of veteran leadership, youthful exuberance, and Cup experience. The first two lines were deadly, the defensive corps were a threat at either end (for a certain 6’6" defenseman, in more ways than one), and the goaltending was made up of a Vezina finalist and a guy that holds the record for most consecutive shutouts, both of whom had gone to the conference finals at some point in their careers. The roster was stacked, and somehow just completely fell apart in April.
This is still a playoff – and contending – team, as long as most of the core stays in place (Thornton, Marleau, Boyle, Nabokov – and maybe include Pavelski, Vlasic, and Setoguchi in there as well). There will be changes, and likely the bottom two lines will be filled with players that aren’t as skilled as we’re used to, which kind of sucks. But really, right now I’m looking at the Penguins, who have gobs of money tied up in their big four (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, and Fleury), with not much left for the supporting cast, and yet they still were able to win the Cup.
I’m scared as hell about what’s going to happen (I have this evil little voice in my head that’s telling me that Marleau or Pavelski might be traded), and I know this team will only somewhat resemble last year’s team, unlike what has been the norm in the past. I have faith in DW, since he has always managed to pull it out in the end, but that doesn’t make me any less scared.
Oh god, please don’t let Marleau or Pavelski be traded. I know Mitchell is safe, so that’s at least one weight off my shoulders, but still. Please.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
i have to think they'd be crazy to trade Pavelski
the guy has earned his place as the bright future of this team
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
if DW trade Pavelski
i will torture him
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
i also think they'd be crazy to trade Marleau
but Pavs is far LESS likely in my book
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions
I told you
It is an evil little voice, emphasis on “evil.”
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
I’m looking at the Penguins, who have gobs of money tied up in their big four (Crosby, Malkin, Staal, and Fleury), with not much left for the supporting cast, and yet they still were able to win the Cup.
A bit deceiving, though. The Penguins were able to win the cup in the last year before Malkin and Staal got their big raises. We shall see if that top four, fully paid, can win with an even thinner supporting cast.
http://www.battleofcali.com/
No way Pav's goes anywhere
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
As has been echoed here, I don’t think Pavelski being traded is very likely. The cap space saved in such a deal would be negligible and he’s definitely outplaying what he will make next season.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
/back to work because my boss is going to kill me
You got a JOB?
Fear the Fin....where being an old guy isn't all bad, and the 2nd round can be bad on the heart
by Dave Valentine on Jul 2, 2009 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Surprising in this economy huh? I guess I lucked out.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
BTW...
the Armstrong to Flames rumors are official…
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
I’m not pleased with that, but, there it is.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
yeah...
i’m just going to attempt to continue reserving judgment
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
cheechoo and ehrhoff, it was nice knowing you
and since you guys say that lukovich should go, bye bye brad. and i have a question, bor you hockey geniuses out there. can GMs and players rewire their contracts, so that the team takes a smaller cap hit?
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
Per the CBA, contracts cannot under any circumstances be renegotiated.
Fear the Fin: Where we just have to want it more!
by Matthew_Taylor on Jul 2, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
well that sucks
there goes my idea. i think i’ll just let you guys do all the thinking and talking, and i’ll just nodd my head in agreement.
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
the idea about contracts or agreeing to everything?
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
contracts
like, can Thornton arbitrarily decide to play for $500,000 if he just really wants to play in San Jose and win?
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
insert nodding head here
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
i would do it if I were and athelete
I don’t need 6 million a year, what am I gonna do with it !
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Not officially, and not practically
If that ever happened, the NHLPA would throw a shitfit. If you think about it, every contract is not just an agreement between a player and a team, but a yard-stick that other players are judged by. Thornton playing for a half mil sets a precedent that team management would exploit.
it happens in baseball
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Baseball players aren't all greedy?
And next you’ll tell me that the sky isn’t blue.
Originally a NorthStars fan, but Modano is all that remains.
i'm talking about renegotiating contracts
the dodgers renegotiated andrew jones’ contract before trading him.
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Baseball doesn’t have a cap, and therefore there isn’t really any baseline contract amount/length that a player of a certain caliber should get. Like, the Tampa Bay Rays could have the same caliber of players as the Boston Red Sox, but the BoSox players would be paid more because Boston is a big-market team.
In a salary cap world, all teams have to have around the same player salary, so players can compare their salaries to others in a direct manner.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
unfortunatly
i want a salary cap in baseball, mainly because i hate the red sox and yankees. GO GIANTS!!! i know it’s not likely, but it would be great if the giants swept the yankees in the world series. lincecum, johnson, cain, zito, suck on that one steinbrenner.
MeThinksSports, Giants, Sharks, and Randomosity
by serrapadre716 on Jul 2, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd rather we sweep the Angels for some sweet revenge
And slay a few monkeys while we’re at it.
"I watch the Wings a lot," says Thornton. "They're the NHL's second-best team."
by Swift Kick in the Goc on Jul 2, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
the two I would most like to see go also
PREPAREDNESS_Because those goddamn zombies aren’t going to kill themselves
Speaking of baseball analogies
I was thinking about this yesterday… Think of how the big boys (Boston and New York) always throw their money around to give their club the best chance of winning the WS every year, but they obviously don’t win it every year. It seems like some scrappy, small market team will come from nowhere, relying on some hot pitchers and hitters, and beat the team that is much better on paper.
The point I’m driving at is that it seems like we’re looking at a weaker Sharks club on paper this season because of salary cap restrictions, but that may be good for the squad. For a good example look at the 03-04 Sharks. Like someone already said, maybe taking the target off our backs will be good for the team. At the beginning of this season, everyone had Detroit winning it all, and with the relieved pressure, the Sharks won the President’s trophy.
And of course, as soon as the Sharks broke all those records in October/November and won the President’s Trophy and all that, all the pressure was on them to win it all. And when you look at the Penguins, who were fighting just to get into the playoffs, well, winning it all just wasn’t on most people’s minds.
So, yeah, I see your point.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
Counterpoint: the Sharks have lost many ways
They’ve lost when they had to struggle and scrape to get into the playoffs, and then battle for playoff positioning. Take away: lock up a high playoff seed so you’re not exhausted by just trying to qualify.
They’ve lost when they were decent most of the year, and turned it up as the season went on. Take away: they peaked too early and overplayed their top players in the last quarter of the regular season.
They’ve lost when they were dominant for the first half of the season, and decent for the last, trying to pace themselves for the playoffs with a high-seed. Take away: fuck.
well, we're not the only team with playoff troubles
i hope we figure it out someday
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
True
but to counter the counterpoint, not every team can win the Cup every year. The Sharks had one of the best rosters on paper and on the ice last season (I’ll argue that Detroit’s was better), and they still lost. For that matter, Detroit lost also. I’m just saying that we should wait and see what DW has up his sleeve and wait and see what the product does on the ice. Even with the likely decrease in talent from last year’s team, we might be surprised.
by Chicago Shark on Jul 2, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Takeaways vs. giveaways
Right. I’m just pointing out the trouble with drawing a single lesson from a particular season’s playoff loss. We’ve sort of run the gamut of ways to underachieve in the post-season.
Ultimately, I don’t think there’s a magical formula for winning the Cup. You have to be relatively healthy, and relatively deep, and have the right kind of team. And you have to be a little lucky. Mostly, you have to play better than the other team for 2.5 months, with no bad stretches.
nice perspective
I completely agree, sometimes being the best team in the league doesn’t translate to a Stanley Cup. It’s part of why I’m very proud with the President’s Trophy in its own right. Penguins may have won the cup, but they were not better than the Sharks last year, over the whole season. Sometimes unexpected things fall into place. The 03-04 season is a great example of what all of us fans would love to see again
by a10dency2ask on Jul 2, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Good point.
Obviously I would want a Sharks team on paper that had a comparable look to this season, but for a team that may be plagued by mental issues (forged either by the pressure of the media or their own inner dialogue), it could be a plus.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
how about a game
you are DOUG WILSON with a time machine. (this is pretty much the prongerator stuff). If you can go back and change a decision or make a decision when you didn’t, what would you go back in time to do. The goal would be to prevent the current cap strain. OR would you leave things just the same and why
I would go back and not overpay Michalek.
I would also pay Ehrhoff less money too.
"iaT"S FUCKINGE LIEK CONICO DO MAYO!!!!!111"
Mr. K. 5/5/2009
Hmm, hindsight is 20/20, but I probably wouldn’t rush Matt Carle as quickly as we did. He was a good young talent (still is) that was loaded with too much early in his career. If we developed him a little longer I think he would have been a big part of the blueline going forward.
Granted, maybe we don’t get Dan Boyle if Carle isn’t on the roster, but I’d like to believe the Tampa brass would have taken something comparable. All indications point to them being crazy pill connoisseurs at that moment in time*.
*They’ve done a nice job shoring up the backend this offseason though.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Michalek’s contract is also a good one- when I’m considering trading him this offseason, it’s usually never, “what he’s shown me” but “what he is capable of.”
With all the strides he made last season defensively however, the hope is that the offensive side of things begin to come around. He’s still a good deal for his production (23 G, 34 A- probably close to market value honestly), but leaves me wanting a bit more.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
That's my thing
If I’m DW, and I choose to pay you 4+million a year, I want you to show up for the playoffs.
He had a nasty streak in maybe 2 games this season. We could definitely use that in a few more games.
"iaT"S FUCKINGE LIEK CONICO DO MAYO!!!!!111"
Mr. K. 5/5/2009
Assuming no high impact trade can be made.
The Sharks are up against the cap and everyone not named Greg Wyshinski knows it. The 29 notable individuals who know this are the other NHL GMs.
If we try to trade any of our big 4 salaries (Thornton, $7.2M, Patty $6.3M, Boyle $6.7M, Nabby $5.4M), we’re going to get flee market offers. We are probably better off offering the second tied (Cheechoo $3M, Michalek $4.3M, Erhoff, $3.1M, Vlasic $3.1M, Murray $2.5M)*
*Disclaimer, I’m not advocating trading anyone just yet, this is a pure numbers exercise.
As of right now, Let’s assume the following roster:
Marleau/Thornton/Seto
Michalek/Pavelski/Clowe
?1/Mitchell/Cheechoo
Shelly/?2/McGinn
Boyle/Huskins
Blake/Vlasic
Murray/Erhoff
Nabokov
?3
Going off of a predicted $3M cap hit for Clowe, and an anticipated $1.5M hit for Mitchell, and $1M for McGinn, our cap is dead, and Lukowich is still on the roster as a depth defenseman. We still need 2 forwards and a backup goalie.
Let’s assume Staubitz is one of our Forwards, and Greiss is our backup Goalie, and assume we need about $2M in cap space to bring them in.
We still need 1 forward, and maybe a few guys to send to Woohstah so they can be our depth forwards.
Lukowich alone obviously does not solve our cap issues.
Again, everyone who matters knows our cap situation. We MUST make a trade, and I think Glen Sather and Bob Gainey wore out most of their poor judgement yesterday.
Looking at teams we could ACTUALLY trade with (teams that can take on Salary):
Montreal – They had cap room, most of it is probably gone with them bringing in a brand new and very compact top line.
Toronto – They are still looking to be big spenders, because the fan base is sharpening pitchforks and finding all the gasoline it can to make a march if nothing more happens.
Los Angeles – They are a division rival, but they also have cap space, and they want to make a move. Plus, Dean Lombardi knows us pretty good, even if Marleau and Nabby are the only names he may have had a hand in bringing to Team Teal.
Those are the first few to come to mind. Someone with more knowledge than me about the cap might be able to come up a few more.
Based PURELY on the numbers, what trades would you like to see the Sharks make? And, what trades are we likely to ACTUALLY get?
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Nice assessment
Lukowich isn’t going to singlehandedly solve our problems. No single trade is going to do that. I think DW knows that his work is cut out for him this summer. We HAVE TO shed salary, and we’re going to lose some fan favorites (the Goc post proved that everyone is a fan favorite). Now, who is going to take on some higher salaries?
Montreal – I’m going to call them effectively out of money.
Toronto – not a bad idea, until Burke showed up there. He’s shrewd, to say the least. He’s not going to take on salary for no reason, so they’re going to be really tough to negotiate with. Besides, they’re not exactly overflowing with talent.
LA – Like you said, they’re in the division, so it’s not a great idea to send anyone there. I thought it was weird enough that we acquired Moen and Huskins from them. Big names leaving are going to be beyond strange.
Phoenix – always willing to trade for or away big names, but who knows what is happening in management at the moment. I guess as long and we don’t try to pawn off anyone name Balsillie, there is a possibility of something happening.
Atlanta – truthfully don’t know much about what is happening there, so there is a chance we can flip some salary for young talent.
All the other teams…
It comes down to this: I can’t spend all day on this site (sorry guys) waiting for the one deal that puts everyone at ease. It’s not out there. DW obviously knew that we have cap problems, otherwise he might have gone after an actual free agent. I hate to say it, but Wyshynski may have had it right when he said that trades are the only thing that are going to work for San Jose.
I don’t want to see (insert player’s name here) go, either, but there isn’t another way. We’ll have a competitive team by the time the season starts.
Originally a NorthStars fan, but Modano is all that remains.
Really good stuff Elvis & stufflife.
Toronto might be out of the question considering Wilson is coaching there now. That rules Patty out obviously, and I don’t think that the Leafs would want Nabokov for a year due to the fact they’re trying to rebuild and get younger- it’s unlikely they want to give up a prospect or younger player in return. Although it would be hilarious to see Tosk & Nabby platooning under Wilson again.
Essentially, I think we’re going to become “sellers” and try to get back young talent in return. It’s not a rebuild persay, more of a retool.
Thinking about it that way, wouldn’t it make it seem as if Patty, Cheech, and Lukowich would be the likely players to move? Michalek and Ehrhoff are still young enough where they have the opportunity to improve, whereas both the aforementioned players may not be in the long term plans of DW. I’m not advocating a Marleau trade, but it seems to be more likely the further we go down the road.
All this makes my head hurt.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Interesting Site
I excluded the Predators because I have the feeling that they won’t spend anywhere NEAR the cap. The Thrashers are interesting. There are rumblings that the team is having financial trouble, and if they can’t lure a big name free agent, they may jetison Kovalchuk for picks and prospects and start a real rebuilding or penny-pinching process. The Isles are interesting too. They’re obviously looking to contend. You do wonder what the whole arena situation is going to do to them. They’re another team in possible financial trouble. But I could see us trading with them.
The Sens intrigue me. Not because of Heatley, but because of their 15 forwards. The Kings also appear to be forward heavy AND have cap space. Panthers are out of conference, but only a little better off cap wise than us. They might be interested in a Marleau or Cheechoo to market themselves around. Interesting possibilities…
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Doug Wilson makes a trade today?
According to Ek, there is a rumor of a 3 way trade between, Chicago, San Jose, and Toronto. I know most of the rumors Ek reports are bogus but still maybe a sign? Patrick Kane? Lol a guy can hope. =)
Just got home a bit ago, and trying to catch up on all the news
It hasn’t been confirmed, but an HF Newfie mentioned that their local news reported Clowe was signed for 4yrs, 3.5 per. It’ll be interesting to see if that proves true.
I'm a happy seal
Same Old Same Old
Gee you think we are in for another playoff flop to a lower seeded team..That is what the Sharks as they are now, are best at…At least we know whats coming..Nabby having puck after puck between his legs, while the team plays with zero sense of urgency or heart..Haven’t we seen this tired act enough????
that seems a tad presumptuous
considering we’ve signed two players and told four to go look for other opportunities. I mean, sure, they could bow out early again, but I’m going to let them play a few games and finish filling out the roster before I decide how the season is going to go.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
Don’t worry about it- The Sear’s all knowing eye couldn’t see that it’s spelled “seer”.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
I just thought it had to do with the store. You know, as opposed to multiple “Sears” he is the singular “Sear.”
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
Dude, you're so right.
I don’t even know why we try. Let’s just contract the team and save us the heartbreak.
/sarcasm
What!?!?!?
I think it’s slightly rediculous that Nabby’s name is even MENTIONED in trade talks in this blog. He has his huge contract for a reason folks. Let’s put the business side of the game off to the side for a moment and just think. I’m fully aware that the Sharks are in a crisis with salary cap space but, trading Nabby!?!?!? Yes, you are rid of his 5.1 million dollar salary but now, we’re without a goalie and the Sharks will suck for sure next year. Nabby’s been in the same breath as Martin Brodeur, Robeto Luongo, and all the other premiere goalies in the current NHL. Bottomline, THINK before blurting out names of guys with the biggest salaries.
Believe me when I say
it’s been an on going subject of debate for sometime now. Before the playoffs, during and after. Nabby has been a hot topic for most of this calendar year. I don’t really feel inclined to go hunt through and find the various thread debating his performance, being in a contract year, etc etc etc, but it’s been discussed to near death.
Not to mention that DW has pretty much said no one but Big Joe and Boyle are safe, anyone and everyone is a target for trade. Nabby is, whether we want him to be or not, part of that group.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
As Gray has echoed, Nabokov has been discussed to death ever since the postseason exit.
We’ve been THINKING all offseason. Welcome to Fear The Fin.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Exactly. I mean, name a player that was on the team last year, and we have discussed trading him at some point this off-season. The only exceptions to that would probably be Boyle, Mitchell, and Pavelski, since we have a sort of universal man/regular crush on them.
I mean, in this thread alone I believe we discussed trading away every player on the team. Granted, that thread should not be taken seriously in any way, shape, or form (I personally enjoyed the discussion about how much heart the division champs banners have), but the general ideas are there.
But, yeah. Nabby’s less-than-stellar performance in the playoffs invited discussion, even if trading him would seem kind of stupid on the surface.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
Don't forget
That if we don’t re-sign nabby in the coming year or trade him, he can choose to sign with another team next year and leave us having to do God knows what to get a first string goaltender with absolutely no salary cap room to do it.
THINK before telling us how to Rosterbate.
"iaT"S FUCKINGE LIEK CONICO DO MAYO!!!!!111"
Mr. K. 5/5/2009
Maybe we should bring back Gorges?
I hear he made a save or two once
*can’t quite find the video I was looking for, but this will do
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
Was this the video you were looking for?
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
I'm psychic.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Fools and Sages
Same Team
I don’t think DW has much choice in making any moves..No one is offering him what he wants for these players..Between the no trade clauses, salary cap, overinflated contracts, and playoff failures, I think we are stuck with this core for at least one to two more years..
Lets hope they show a little more pride and make it to the second round at least..
No expectations for this group of players might help..
not to be whatever
but how do we know, for sure, what offers DW is and isn’t getting for players? Because they haven’t moved yet? All we can be sure of is what has happened so far. The rest is conjecture.
resident cartoonist @couchtarts.blogspot.com. Endorsed by Mr. K on "CINCODEMYOOR!!!!!"
Nabby's Exposed Five Hole
Of course you have to discuss your number one goalie being exposed..He is unmovable at his price and no trade clause, so we better hope that he can figure something out, but it doesn’t look good..
Stevie Can I Have Some Of What Your Smoking
Whatever your smoking to compare the playoff loser Nabby to Luongo and Brodeur, I want some of what your smoking..How many cups has Nabby won?? I think Brodeur has won a few, plus he is the number 1 goalie in history for victories..Luongo had the lowest goal against average in the league two years ago..Do you think Vancouver or New Jersey would trade their goalies for a guy who’s playoff record is 2.78 and an .880 save percentage?? Not on your life, unless they are smoking more of what you are..
Get your facts straight..It makes you look like you have zero clue what your talking about..
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