Sharks Gameday: Finding A Groove
by Mr. Plank on Jan 11, 2010 3:01 AM PST
in Sharks Game Previews
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| 28-10-7, 63 points | 25-17-3, 53 points |
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| 2nd in Western Conference |
8th in Western Conference |
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NHLN-CA, CSN-CA
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The FTF-proclaimed months of optimal standings points accumulation have been an interesting road thus far-- a five game losing streak, followed by a eight game winning streak, followed by two blowouts wedged in between a late game comeback against the St. Louis Blues. There hasn't been a whole lot of consistency from the squad as a whole during this period, and sure enough Marleau and Heatley continue to account for roughly 40% of the team's goal output. It's a trend that we're going to take a look at later this week (along with the blueline's production), but a nasty case of the 24 hour flu (which I initally believed to be food poisoning-- turns out my vegan friend came down with the same symptoms, which sort of rules that one out) put productivity on permanent hiatus.
So what do we have today? Hate to break it to you, but it's another porous effort from your blogger in chief. Well, sort of. It's actually a hybrid version of Shootin' The Shit*, where I'd like to open the floor to get your opinions on what will be the hot topic of the trade deadline, Ilya Kovalchuk.
*So much for throwing one out there "every non-gameday Friday" eh?
As those with even a casual pulse on the NHL are aware of, the superstar Russian sniper has been mentioned in numerous rumor pieces lately. The Western Conference front runners run the gamut from Calgary to Chicago to Los Angeles, and a lot of the "likely" deals make some sense-- defenseman Dion Phaneuf from the Flames provides the Thrashers with a young player who's locked up for a lengthy term, and the Blackhawks, while running a salary ship sailing in the same seas as San Jose, have some talent in the $3.00 M range that could be pieced together to make a deal work as well.
Then there's Los Angeles, which might be the most compelling option. The Kings have amassed a formidable minor league system with their high draft selections in the past seven years, and have the cap space to swing a deal for Kovalchuk without giving up any roster players-- the likelihood of that is slim to none considering Atlanta would need a tangible piece to show their fans considering the importance of Kovalchuk to their franchise, but it nonetheless strengthens Lombardi's bargaining position. There's no need for him to crunch numbers here, only asset talent and the risk of potentially giving up a blossoming young star for twenty five odd games of pure goal-scoring prowess. Lombardi's been patient as all hell during the rebuilding process, and you have to think that he wouldn't green light a move like this unless he thought he had a good chance of re-signing Kovalchuk in the offseason. The West is just too deep this season (read: every season) for him to jump into this without a good hard look at what it means for 2010-2011.
Wherever Kovalchuk lands (and my guess is that he's headed on his way out if current contract negotiations are any indicator-- Atlanta can't afford to let him walk for nothing), it's safe to say that team will be considered a Stanley Cup contender from the moment he walks into the dressing room. And if it's Los Angeles? Let's just say a playoff draw against them would look even worse than it did one week ago.
Prediction: Sharks win 3-2. Goals by McGinn, Heatley, and Blake.
Go Sharks.
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Good luck tonight Sharks
I wont be able to listen to the game tonight because I’m flying to Phoenix tonight. Tomorrow’s game will be my first Sharks game. Plus, I got locker room passes for after the game. I will finally be able to meet Joe!! I plan on taking tons of pics and sharing them with my fellow Sharks fans. Stay tuned
Fear the 8!!
Pavelski closing in, Pavelski fires, HE SCOOORES!! 5 games not enough! The Sharks have another date in the Lone Star State!
Apologies
I just read what I typed and my grammar is terrible. We’re leaving Iowa soon and I’m so jacked up for tomorrow nights game versus the Coyotes that I can hardly type. Take car fellow Shark fans!
Pavelski closing in, Pavelski fires, HE SCOOORES!! 5 games not enough! The Sharks have another date in the Lone Star State!
I am still excited for hockey
Whoo hockey!
resident cartoonist @CouchTarts Lightning is seven times as hot as the surface of the sun.
That’s still not as hot as Douglas Murray. -mymclife
Off-topic
Does anyone have an extra ticket for the Boston game? I really want to see Mark Recchi in his last visit to San Jose. I’ll buy you a beer, too.
Fear the Fin: "C'mon Drew, we're going streaking!" - Randy Hahn, 12/31/09
"Say whatever the fuck you want!" - Danny Miller, 1/9/10
by Conico do Mayo Miracle on Jan 11, 2010 8:48 AM PST reply actions
More off-topic
Columbus might move elsewhere – for real.
Fear the Fin: "C'mon Drew, we're going streaking!" - Randy Hahn, 12/31/09
"Say whatever the fuck you want!" - Danny Miller, 1/9/10
by Conico do Mayo Miracle on Jan 11, 2010 10:03 AM PST reply actions
DW is known for trading away what he perceives a prospect that’s on a decline (Bernier, Carle, etc) as part of the package. Is there a chance that’s he’ll go all in, and trade Setoguchi, Ferreiro and our 1st round pick for rental of Kovalchuk? I don’t think there is a chance in hell we’ll resign him in the off season, unless both Marleau and Nabokov are forced to walk (which isn’t fair considering what both have done to our organization), but it may just be that DW realizes that another early playoff exit will mean his head is next to roll and that he does go all in to save his job.
Seeing how good the West is this season, I think there is a remote possibility that DW parts the red see again.
Can you imagine top two lines – Thornton/Heatley/Marleau, Kovalchuk/Pavs/Clowe?
I have no qualms with shipping out Setogutchi
But if we’re letting him go, I think I’d like a D-man in return. Granted, this is a straight upgrade of our winger, but the team’s biggest issue remains unaddressed: we only have 2 legitimate defenders in Boyle and Murray, and no true shutdown pair that can match the speed and skill of Chicago or Jarome Iginla.
Plus, Kovy is what,a $6M cap hit? We’d need to ship Blake and Vlasic out as well, and then we’d have to ask for 2 D-men back somehow. I’ve been down on Blake and Vlasic this season, but any of the cheap D-men we could get back would be not nearly as good.
As much as I’d drool over the top two lines you posit, I don’t see anyway in which we make this deal happen under the cap without taking a significant hit at an already thin blue line.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
I don’t remember how it works when you acquire someone at the trade deadline. Once deadline is past, how much of Kovalchuk’s salary is hitting our cap?
Isn't it prorated?
Admittedly I’m the last person who should be taking a stab at this, but if I’m wrong, this is the time for me to learn, as well.
Fear the Fin: "C'mon Drew, we're going streaking!" - Randy Hahn, 12/31/09
"Say whatever the fuck you want!" - Danny Miller, 1/9/10
by Conico do Mayo Miracle on Jan 11, 2010 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
From http://www.nhlscap.com/cap_faq.htm#calc_cap
When two teams trade players, the cap figures of each player immediately become the responsibility of the other team. The new CBA prevents teams from picking up any part of a player’s salary for another team in the future, or including cash in any transaction between teams. Any such agreements in the past are still valid, with the new team only counting the portion of the player’s salary they are responsible for paying against the team cap. An example of this is Jaromir Jagr of the New York Rangers, who is paid $8.36 million in ’07-08 but only counts $4.94 million (the portion the Rangers pay) against the Rangers team cap; the difference is paid by Washington but does not count against their team cap.
To answer an often-asked question: when a player is traded from one team to another, his cap number DOES NOT change. Thus, if Bryan McCabe is traded from Toronto to the Islanders in the 2008-09 offseason, his cap number with the Islanders remains $5,750,000 – it does not recalculate based on the remaining years of the contract.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Yes, but we’re talking about trade in February, when regular season only has 20 games remaining, in other words, it’s 3/4 complete.
Logic tells that whatever little space Sharks had is also 3/4 gone, but I’m no expert on this.
The Sharks cannot go over the $56.8 M salary cap in base salary at any time (i.e. everyone on the roster after the trade deadline must account for less or equal $56.8 M).
Since the Sharks are pressed up against the cap, they would have to move around 6 million dollars in personnel to receive Kovalchuk. Safe money says he won’t be showing up.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Last I had checked...
and admittedly, this was a few weeks ago, the Sharks could take on the equivalent of a full season cap hit of $725,000-ish (we had a little over 300k in cap space, and the season was a little over half done). This was according to what I saw on capgeek. So, the Sharks would still have to move some significant salary in order to fit even the remaining 1/4 of Kovy’s salary under our cap. I don’t see it happening.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Jan 11, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
Sorry, was going to post more, but had to step in to a meeting
But it looks like Plank and Zero have the salient points covered.
You are correct that his full hit does not affect us, but a quick glance at the numbers still makes it look like we can’t afford him. I’ll have to check later at some point.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Daily Hit
Kovy’s daily hit is $33,105. Assuming we got him at the deadline, which is 40 days before the end of the season, we’d be on the hook for $1,324,200.
Seto’s daily hit is $6,459. We’d save $258,360 shipping him out. So looks like we’d still need about $1.1M in daily cap hits over 40 days to afford him. That’s a daily hit of $26,646. For reference, Blake is $20,725, Staubitz is $2,591, Mitchell is $7,081, Vlasic is $16,062, Huskins is $8,808, and Shelley is $3,756.
I don’t think there is a package there that does not make us significantly worse on Defense to justify bringing in another forward, even if it is one as talented as Kovalchuk. My personal opinion anyway.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Blake, Clowe, and a draft pick would work for me, but a) Atlanta wouldn’t want Blake and b) there’s going to be much better offers out there for the Thrashers.
That being said, the prospect of having Demers, Huskins, or Leach on the second pairing scares the shit out of me. It’s really rolling the dice, but if a player like Kovalchuk comes in it’s a risk I might be willing to take considering his goal scoring ability.
Regardless, it flat out wouldn’t work.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
What’s interesting is that Sharks had its best playoff run with the following people on defense – McLaren, Hannan, Stuart, Rathje, Marshall and Davison.
If you rewind back the time, I think I’d only take McLaren and Hannan over what we have now. Stuart wasn’t who he is now.
Bottom line – our lack of depth of defense can be compensated by Nabokov’s hot play. So I’m keeping my hopes up.
Respectfully disagree.
I think that’s dangerous to rely your defensive weaknesses on a hot goalie.
Where hockey injuries in San Diego are thumb blisters from playing too much NHL 09
by Will Bulldozer on Jan 11, 2010 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not saying we should rely on Nabokov as our only hope. What I’m saying is that I’m not going to write Sharks off if they don’t have no. 1 ranked defense in the league going into playoffs.
I never said we were going to rely on Nabby as our “only hope.”
But it’s naive and downright stupid not to bolster your blue line when you are well aware of its liabilities and limits during the regular season. At this point, the Sharks don’t have a top 5 defense.
Where hockey injuries in San Diego are thumb blisters from playing too much NHL 09
by Will Bulldozer on Jan 11, 2010 1:12 PM PST up reply actions
Hot Goaltending
A lot of people say Jonas Hiller was hot when we faced him last year. I don’t buy that because we didn’t significantly test him. Hiller SAW all the shots we put at him, and it’s easier to say in the playoffs that a goaltender is hot because everything is ramped up.
Anaheim kept us pushed out to the perimeter and kept the front of the net clear.
We are paying Nabby a cool $5M a year, but he’s not Grant Fuhr where the boys can tap his pads and say “See you in 60 minutes.” Nabby is at his best when he comes out and challenges shooters and plays his angles. He has to be confident to do that. If we don’t upgrade our D, I don’t think Nabby will have much faith in them. Over the course of an 82 game season, his trust in them will ebb and flow. But in a 7 game series, it doesn’t take much for things to go from bad to worse.
So yes, we could win with hot goaltending, but hot goaltending can be quickly iced by defensive breakdowns. Kovalchuk is an upgrade on offense, but in terms of individual play and personnel movement required to obtain his services, I still view him as not the right move for this team.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Don’t want Kovalchuk.
Would not touch with a 10 foot pole.
More offense is great— in the regular season. But come the playoffs when powerplays are limited and constant defensive breakdowns and lack of back-checking might mean the difference between winning a series or not, seems like a player of Kovalchuk’s abilities is not what the doctor ordered.
Kovalchuk’s never been a plus player in his career. Granted, the Thrashers have given up a lot of goals, but theoretically, Kovalchuk should even that with his even strength points. Now you bring a player like Kovalchuk, whose never been force-fed to play at both ends of the zone, and throw him into a situation like San Jose — imagine the sparkles if RW were still here! You can’t compel nor expect a rental to play in an entirely different system.
Take the Marian Hossa trade. Hossa was already well known for playing at both ends of the ice. Ray Shero makes the trade and he fits in beautifully in the Pens’ offensive system.
If you put him on the Sharks’ 2nd line, you’re giving him reduced ice time. Reduced power play time. Remember, this guy usually plays the entire 2 minutes of the power play at the point position. Whose spot on the PP gets reduced to make way for Kovalchuk?
Playoff performance. 1 goal. 1 assist. against the Rangers in 4 games.
Don’t mean to be the party pooper.
Where hockey injuries in San Diego are thumb blisters from playing too much NHL 09
by Will Bulldozer on Jan 11, 2010 12:40 PM PST up reply actions
How about Mitchell’s PP time? I’m kind of pissed that our PP is so bad that they’re trying to jump start it by throwing Mitchell out there. I even noticed Nichol on there against Detroit. Who’s next? Shelley?
Second, don’t tell Penguins that offense doesn’t matter in playoffs.. How else do they win Game 6 and 7 of playoffs last year? Hell, how else do they win Game 7 of the series against Capitals?
And don’t tell it to the Sharks who go 0-12 on PP to start playoffs last year.
3rd line production
Fleury
Defense
The last two games of the SCF were the most tightly played games of the entire playoffs.
game 6: 2-0
game 7: 3-2
Where was the offense?
Do you think Kovalchuk is going to improve our PP?
The current season Pens have one of the lowest ranked PP in the league, despite a lineup of Gonchar, Crosby, Malkin. Having Kovalchuk at the point does not mean we’re guaranteed success.
Where hockey injuries in San Diego are thumb blisters from playing too much NHL 09
by Will Bulldozer on Jan 11, 2010 1:16 PM PST up reply actions
edit:
game 7: 2-1
even less offense
Where hockey injuries in San Diego are thumb blisters from playing too much NHL 09
by Will Bulldozer on Jan 11, 2010 1:17 PM PST up reply actions
I actually like Mitchell and Nichol on the Power Play
Mitchell more than Nichol, but I like what they bring. They skate hard and they KEEP MOVING. None of this standing around with the puck. Moving skaters are harder to defend than stationary players, even if those players are named Joe Thornton.
The standing around might work against weak PKs where the PKers stay back, but look at any of the teams we are likely to face in the playoffs: they all have aggressive PKs built on pressuring the puck carrier.
Out Power Play remains complacent and low energy. If it takes Torrey Mitchell or Scott Nichol to make it work, freaking A, make it work.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
But the results are still the same, with Mitchell or without – our PP still sucks.
I think McLellan needs to come out and say that Boyle and Heatley spend 2 minutes out there – just like Ovechkin and Kovalchuk do in their clubs.
Fair assessment
I’d maybe ask for a bit of patience with them, but you’re probably right on Heatley. He’s what the doctor ordered. As far as Boyle goes, we need him in ALL scenarios. I hope we don’t ride him too hard!
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Kovalchuk is obviously not coming to San Jose. There’s no way to make it work under the cap.
The defense has been a sore spot all year, and that’s where DW will make a trade for (if he makes one at all). This is one thing I think we all can agree on. The purpose of the piece was to think about what teams would be the most likely suitors, and how it would change the Western Conference if he ended up being moved.
Anyways, for anyone interested, Bird Watchers Anonymous put up a piece today asking for potential Kovalchuk deals.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
I say Chicago
Atlanta stands to gain the most players from Chicago. For a team in a rebuild, having more warm bodies is always an upgrade.
Calgary has to ask themselves, do they have Pheunuf to make a deal? I mean, honestly, Calgary can really only afford to offer Elisha’s boytoy straight up for Kovalchuk, and I think Atlanta would be much happier not taking on a bloated contract for one player.
In Los Angeles, I don’t see Dean Lombardi betting the farm on a rental. Dean has always been about drafting and developing young talent, and he’d have to give so much of that up to get Kovalchuk. I don’t see him doing it.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Really off-topic
Greenman at a hockey game? No…GreenMEN at a hockey game!! Yeah!!
(and they’re not even in Philly)
They're everywhere!
Two guys at my school dressed up as green men for one of the football games. It was bizarre…
"I think people were ready to watch some hockey. We took up enough of everyone’s time."
-Jody Shelley after an 87 second hockey fight against Cam Janssen
Doing some research...
I kinda want to buy one…
"I think people were ready to watch some hockey. We took up enough of everyone’s time."
-Jody Shelley after an 87 second hockey fight against Cam Janssen
aww
they don’t make suits for chicks (man)
resident cartoonist @CouchTarts Lightning is seven times as hot as the surface of the sun.
That’s still not as hot as Douglas Murray. -mymclife
Going to the game
First time seeing the sharks out of town
"A foghorn blowing out wild and cold." -Dire Straits
If they don't start the Squirrel tonight
They’re idiots. Burn me twice……….
I like my goals like I like my booze..... Top shelf.
by GhostOfLinkGaetz on Jan 11, 2010 1:59 PM PST reply actions
The meth Squirrel is the only one capable of stopping L.A.
Since someone else who places goalie for the Sharkswhoshallremainnameless can’t stop them.
I like my goals like I like my booze..... Top shelf.
by GhostOfLinkGaetz on Jan 11, 2010 3:55 PM PST reply actions
Oh, is that so?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQILvcw4WjY
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
I don't know
I don’t think that really counts as stopping anything. Neither King’s player actually took a shot on the nameless one
That’s because he prevented them from shooting using his Jedi mind powers.
So, really, which would you rather have – a meth squirrel, or a Jedi?
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" Club
Fools and Sages
He stopped a couple here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkTtyGqmjig
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
absolutely
He was also on point against the Kings in March when we went 7 rounds and he stoppped 6 of 7 along with 23 of 24 during the game
For any of you waiting on Pavelski's Olympic jersey number...
It’s 16 according to usahockey.com.
Hope no one pulled the trigger too fast.
Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.
I forget – which country won World Juniors, and which country didn’t even medal? ;)
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" Club
Fools and Sages
The most kick-ass country in the world, of course.
"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" Club
Fools and Sages
by mymclife on Jan 11, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
“AMERICA, F*** YEAH!”
resident cartoonist @CouchTarts Lightning is seven times as hot as the surface of the sun.
That’s still not as hot as Douglas Murray. -mymclife
I was just there yesterday and didn’t see that … (half thinking of getting one)
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin
by ang6666 on Jan 11, 2010 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
so OT and maybe it’s been mentioned but I didn’t see it … but it’s absolutely crazy that any fan would point a laser at a player during a game … and the game not being stopped till that fan is kicked out is ridiculous
Ever get the feeling we are on a collision course with reality?
"They who would give up an essential liberty for temporary security, deserve neither liberty or security" -- Benjamin Franklin
by ang6666 on Jan 11, 2010 4:32 PM PST reply actions
You stay classy Vancouver
Way to show you’re ready to host the biggest hockey tournament in the world.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Interesting stat
I remembered seeing something about goalies who won the Cup and how much they played during the regular season. I couldn’t remember the numbers, but I looked them up.
In the past decade only Martin Brodeur has won a cup starting more than 70 games (75)
Nabby is on pace for 71.
The average is 56 games. Throwing out the highest (Brodeur 75) and lowest (Ward 28) the average is 57.
We will make the playoffs, the question is how successful can we be if Nabby doesn’t get nights off?
“Last year McLellan gave Nabokov plenty of rest during the regular season so that he would be fresher for the playoffs. That didn’t work. McLellan is now of the opinion that Nabby might be one of those goalies who is actually better the more playing time he gets.”
— From Randy Hahn’s blog. Feel free to dispute that “plenty of rest” thing, I seem to recall Nabby getting higher-than-average starts with the possible exception of that injured stretch. Could be mistaken, I’m too lazy to check the numbers at present.
Nabby set his own schedule at the end of last year, which I think was a mistake. Furthermore, McLellan rode him at the end of last season (or let Nabokov ride himself) even when Nabby was dealing with a lower body injury going into the playoffs.
I still think Greiss should be getting more starts with the Olympics this season, but I’ve given up banging that drum. Only so many articles you can write about that without boring yourself to death.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
For what it's worth ...
I agree; the number of starts he’s had over this season and last is pretty crazy. Throw Olympics and a history of bad playoff runs into the mix, and there’s plenty to be said — I’m just here to regurgitate what may be relevant information — T-Mac seems to think that working Nabby to death is the answer, not the problem.
BTW
This post has been up for over 15 hours now, and no one has made a joke about either Plank or the Sharks not being able to “find a groove.”
Way to stay classy FTF.
They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn
Make fun of Plank’s (lack of) sex life in the brand spanking new January OT Thread!
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
FTFers, Unite!
I have just been told of a rumor that states that Ehrhoff and other Sharks can be seen in a sauna together. This moment was preserved in picture form, but appears difficult to find. Anyone who can report on the truthiness of this photo and/or can produce a link to it will get 5 internet cookies.
Thank you.
resident cartoonist @CouchTarts Lightning is seven times as hot as the surface of the sun.
That’s still not as hot as Douglas Murray. -mymclife
That’s the only one I could think of as well.
resident cartoonist @CouchTarts Lightning is seven times as hot as the surface of the sun.
That’s still not as hot as Douglas Murray. -mymclife
Watching Chronicle Live...
(because pregame starts in a few minutes)
The people there are talking about Pablo Sandoval and his weight while Ray Ratto is sitting there uncomfortably.
"I think people were ready to watch some hockey. We took up enough of everyone’s time."
-Jody Shelley after an 87 second hockey fight against Cam Janssen
If he underwent a similar program,
what would happen to all of his excess weight? Landfill with all the ET Atari cartridges?
Proud member of the "Don't Trade Marleau" club.
Fear the Fin: Where Sharks Fans Aren't Like Other Sharks Fans.
by SharksFanEst.1994 on Jan 11, 2010 7:32 PM PST up reply actions
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