Another Look At Secondary Scoring
For those that missed this article yesterday, here's a synopsis of my basic feelings on the secondary scoring situation:
- Splitting up HTML at even strength is probably going to be a positive thing against the Western Conference elite defenses because it allows San Jose to roll two lines with league-leading goal scorers, making it more difficult to gameplan for the Sharks. Setoguchi will get better looks with Thornton, and Marleau will make Pavelski/Clowe more dynamic.
- Secondary scoring is what buried the Sharks last year in the playoffs. Nabokov's five hole didn't help.
- The decline of Rob Blake and loss of Christian Ehrhoff has hurt the defensive production, which in turn has increased the burden for Heatley and Marleau to provide the majority of the team's offense. Douglas Murray is currently second on the blueline in goals scored with 3 to his name. That speaks for itself.
- An upgrade at the forward position probably won't be in the cards outside the organization, but Doug from DOH raises a point TCY and I were just talking about yesterday as well-- Logan Couture could make an appearance in the playoffs when the salary cap no longer applies to teams. It's an interesting possibility, and further strengthens Wilson's ability to go out and get an upgrade for the defensive unit. We have names lined up similar to Denis Seidenberg that will drop mid-February during our Olympic coverage, but what DW will be looking at is a player in the $2-3 M range that is sound defensively. Scoring touch wouldn't hurt (Sheldon Souray, even with the injury issues, is very enticing), but those players will likely be out of the Sharks price range.
- That being said, I'm no longer firmly of the mindset that an upgrade on defense is the only thing this team needs, especially after researching my latest two pieces. Secondary scoring is an issue for this club, and while I still think the defense is the number one priority here (due in part to the fact that it would help mask our scoring depth ironically), I plan on identifying cheap potential trade targets on the offensive side of the ice as well.
- In order for the Sharks to be successful, Setoguchi, Clowe, and Pavelski need to get the engines going. Big time. Although they have looked better lately, it's essential they convert that energy into tangible scoring results. Breaking up HTML will help that considerably. And yes, as I've asserted for nearly a year now, I don't think Staubitz and Shelley are a better fit for this team compared to other options, this year's being Frazer McLaren. It's a dead horse I'm done beating after today, just like the assertion that Nabokov shouldn't be climbing into the 70+ starts range during an Olympic season. You can only make a point so many times before you start to drive yourself mad, and being a lonely twenty something year old who eats Pop Tarts for dinner, I have enough to be mad about. No more from me on the subject (feel free to knock yourselves out, of course) until at least early February.
At any rate, here's a data dump of scoring output from all the Western Conference teams who made it to the second round of The Months That Shall Not Be Named since the lockout. I have arbitrarily deemed these teams the most "succesful" squads due to their ability to advance at least one round; if there is an issue with this method, I will happily calculate the production of all playoff teams during these years.
Categories are broken down the same way they were yesterday, so check there if you're unsure of what you're looking at, and what you're looking for.
The current Sharks team is listed at the top of every list, with all relevant categories averaged out to an 82 game season in order to provide a basis of comparison. All other teams are listed in order of how far they went in the playoffs-- the top team will be the winner of the Clarence S. Campbell Bowl, and the last team will be the one who was knocked out first in the second round.
The next three seasons after the jump.
As we can see, the Sharks top two goal scorers percentage is nearly unprecedented in the current NHL-- no team that has reached the second round in the last four seasons has seen numbers that high. Only during Jonathan Cheechoo's Rocket Richard year in 05-06 do we witness a team climb significantly above that 30% threshold.
Furthermore, the projected raw totals of the secondary scorers are dead last amongst these teams. Coupled with yesterday's findings that they are tied for sixth in this category in regards to possible 2010 playoff opponents, it's safe to say that the Sharks are relying almost solely on the talents of Heatley and Marleau to win games. I think that much is fairly undebatable, even if you disagree with the assertion that McLellan should split them in order to balance out the attack.
It's a blessing to have two talented goal-scorers on the team right now, but you have to wonder how sustainable this is during a seven game series against an elite defensive pairing who can extensively gameplan for one superstar line. This is what concerned me the very day Doug Wilson made the trade for Dany Heatley, and while I agree that San Jose received the better end of the deal because they were able to dump Cheechoo's $3 M contract, it's an issue that should be acknowledged when discussing the long term success of this club both this season and beyond.
The salary cap situation makes it a tough proposition to state that a deadline deal is a given, and although Doug Wilson has proved that he is able to make the blockbuster deal for big-contract players, it will be interesting to see how well he does in upgrading the team's depth with essentially no room to maneuver. There's not a lot of options, and assets, left for him to work with.
Go Sharks.
"Sharks Gameday: Secondary" accompanies this posting.
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Comments
i've been a fan of spitting up the HTML
marleau played all of last season with pavelski and clowe, he’ll still get his chances to score on that line.
You can only make a point so many times before you start to drive yourself mad, and being a lonely twenty something year old who eats Pop Tarts for dinner, I have enough to be mad about.
haha
MeThinksSports where the only semi-good thing is the poll...
by serrapadre716 on Jan 13, 2010 8:27 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Great piece-I think our lack of depth scoring and lack of depth on the blueline are both glaring and very serious issues. However, the lion’s share of the media and blogosphere have largely ignored these issues all season; no doubt the presence of 3 superstars on the same line and the level of production with regard to goals, points, and wins by these 3 has overshadowed these issues for the hockey community as a whole. I’m also a fervent proponent of breaking up HTML at least part-time, and now’s a good a time as any to start trying it out on a regular basis again. I, for one, would love to see Seto return to the disgusting level of production we saw last season and I agree that Papa Joe is the catalyst. The ‘Hawks just plain scare me, and I’m sure I’m not alone. In many ways (with the exception of goaltending), I consider the current squad the archetype of a Stanley Cup contender.
One point that I don’t completely agree with is that we need a bit more offensive overhauling. Well, I agree to a point. We know that most of the players on our 2nd and even 3rd lines have the ability to score, most notably the entire 2nd line; it’s just a matter of finding that Papa Joe-type catalyst, which I agree Marleau can surely provide on the 2nd line. The 4th line is where I see the most problems-I agree Staubitz isn’t making the impact (yet) that he was last season. I’m a big fan of McClaren-he can produce offensively, and dear god is he a beast. He’s young, he can actually hold his own with the league’s largest human beings (read: Parros), and I really like the energy he brings to the line. Hunt’s mid-season grade for McClaren doesn’t make sense to me. As for the 3rd line, they don’t lack in effort whatsoever. That line is just insane, Nichol and Malhotra in particular. I wish they’d produce a little more offensively, but I see them as largely a role-playing line (winning faceoffs, forechecking the shit out of opponents, and winning races to loose pucks).
East coast and Canadian hockey fans love to criticize Sharks fans, hell, west coast hockey fans in general, calling us ignorant, uninformed, and merely fans of a single team rather than of the sport as a whole (the latter being utterly an utterly retarded assertion, if you ask me). I think this blog and several other excellent Western Conference-focused blogs I frequent make our accusers look like a bunch of schmucks.
I have faith that DW, being the powerful Jedi master that he is, will continue to perform miracles. Well, he has until March 3rd to do so.
by cyoung on Jan 13, 2010 8:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
East coast and Canadian hockey fans love to criticize Sharks fans, hell, west coast hockey fans in general, calling us ignorant, uninformed, and merely fans of a single team rather than of the sport as a whole
And yet they’re more than happy to turn a free pass to Abel To Yzerman, where The Chief himself said that’s his view on hockey (“I’m not an NHL fan, I’m a Red Wings fan,” I think it was).
by Nael M. on Jan 13, 2010 9:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
They're not perfect, but pretty darn good!
I like your reply, and I agree with your ascertions. I think the Sharks are a much more cohesive group when they play a bit more conservative hockey. I think the last two games are examples of that. More stay at home defense and fewer turnovers. It never hurts to get great goaltending either.
I wonder if you think that the current second like with Pavs and Clowe is a bit slow? Seto needs a pure passer like Jumbo or a speedster like Marleau to help him create his shots. So I too would like to see if Marleau can be almost as productive on the second line and that might improve Seto’s confidence and in time, the chemistry on the top line between he, Jumbo, and Heater. Marleau and Pav’s can set eachother up and Clowe can crash the net.
I really love the third line of Malhotra (underrated) Ortmeyer and either Nichol or McGinn.
Fourth line needs to focus on hammering people (not taking too many stupid penalties) and sticking up for our top guys and Nabby. Any combo of Shelley, Staubitz, Nichol, and or McLaren works for me.
Lastly, I think I will always be concerned about our defense going into the playoffs with how many minutes Boyle is logging and how old Blake has become. I’d prefer Leach to Huskins, if he can be moved?
I learn a lot reading these blogs, so keep up the great effort.
by 1 and done on Jan 13, 2010 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not as worried about the scoring depth in terms of the talent we already have. The guys we have SHOULD be scoring more, its just a matter of getting them to do so. And, I agree, swapping Marleau and Setoguci would probably be a good start. I also think getting together a consistant 3rd line of Malhotra-Nichol-Ortmeyer would help too…as whenever those guys are together, they are ridiculously high energy, great on the forecheck, and pretty good at creating scoring chances of their own.
That third line I listed in particular could be the line that helps us the most in the postseason. Any one of those three guys, with the way they have been playing, could end up being the Talbot (PIT 09) or Moen (ANA 07) that is key to helping a team go far (breakout playoffs where someone off the bottom lines goes off and scores like 8-10 goals in the playoffs out of nowhere…usually a high energy guy). I mean, regardless of how much of our offense is going to come from the likes of Marleau and Heatley…if we don’t have that lower line guy step up and chip in unexpected goals, we probably aren’t going to do well anyways. You really can’t have a Canada-like lineup in terms of scoring, so other people are going to have to step up. And I think we have the pieces that could do just that. Hell, even a 4th line of McGinn-Mitchell-McLaren/Couture (depending on who we are playing and if we want an enforcer type), could make some waves. We have the pieces, they just need to effing do their job. No amount of tweeking will ever change that fact.
Of course, we’ll need our big guns scoring too. Who’s led the playoffs in scoring the last few years? Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Zetterberg…the stars. Yes, they’ll face defensive pressure. But we’ll still need them to produce. Which is why I’m not too worried that we’re seeing Marleau and Heatley scoring a bunch right now. We’ll need them too. The other guys just need to wake up and compliment that better. Which, as I’ve said, I think they can.
Finally, the blueline needs to be bolstered defensively (we’re good on puck movers). And having D-men you can count on to shut things down down-low will allow the forwards to be able to press a little more, and could create more scoring chances across the board, too.
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Jan 13, 2010 11:10 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
(we’re good on puck movers)
I understand WHY you made this statement, but I don’t think we have the right ones. Consider all the turnovers we have had lately and then can you say with a straight face that the “puck movers” aren’t guilty of any of the problems?
If a puck mover is the opposite of a defensively-minded defender, I’ll take more Doug Murrays before another Kent Huskins.
Jon Casey fan since '84
by stufflife on Jan 14, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Heads up...
Plank’s terrific article made the front page at NHL.com.
Let’s all thank our lucky stars that he is a 20 year old eating pop-tarts for dinner. If he had a life, then we wouldn’t get to bask in his greatness.
Keep on truckin’, partner.
Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.
by That'll Cheech You on Jan 13, 2010 11:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Guess the mention on Puck Daddy doesn’t mean much now…
by Section223 on Jan 13, 2010 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
wutabeast!
Sometimes the impossible can become possible if you're AWESOME!
by ZeroIndulgence on Jan 13, 2010 1:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
sweet!
Loving Plank more and more everyday…especially a relatively new hockey fan meaning getting into the gory details of hockey not just watching for kicks.
"Hockey players wear numbers because you can’t always identify the body with dental records."—Anonymous
by mssjsclowie29 on Jan 13, 2010 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Got a screencap, because I can’t see it anywhere thanks to its crowded layout.
by Nael M. on Jan 13, 2010 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Took it down this afternoon. Believe me, it was there.
Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.
by That'll Cheech You on Jan 13, 2010 7:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here it is. Right under Henrik Lundqvist.
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
by Mr. Plank on Jan 13, 2010 7:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice
Slightly off topic, but another article I found interesting regarding points and pennies:
NHL Player Cost per Point
The Thrashers Rich Peverley tops the list as the player that provides the most bang for your buck. The Sharks show up at #45 with Manny Malhotra: 14pts and a cap hit of $700,000 = $50,000/point. The only other SJ player that breaks the top-100 is Ortmeyer.
140: McLaren, cap $543,000 + 6pts = $90,500/point
233: Staubitz, cap $500,000 + 4pts = $125,000/point
"Sorry guys, I’m not going to try and hit (Douglas) Murray anymore. It doesn’t work." - Steve Ott, Dallas Stars.
by SwisherThresher on Jan 13, 2010 2:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Secondary scoring is what buried the Sharks last year in the playoffs. Nabokov’s five hole didn’t help.
remember this vividly…or not..i was sloshed
"I like people who shake other people up and make them feel uncomfortable."
Jim Morrison quote
by SPADE-IN-VICTORHELL on Jan 13, 2010 2:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
secondary scoring
You need more ice than the third and fourth lines are seeing to get secondary scoring.
by phinave9 on Jan 13, 2010 3:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
3rd line is getting plenty and the second line gets far more than enough.
by Evilducks on Jan 13, 2010 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
indeed
the guys on the second line just need to grow a pair
by sharks in oc on Jan 13, 2010 5:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Sharks do not even have to alter their team drastically if they go with Marleau-Thornton-Heatley, Clowe-Pavelski-Setoguchi, Malhotra-Nichol-Ortmeyer, McGinn-Mitchell-(Couture)-McLaren. That gives SJ two scoring lines, a solid checking line, and a fourth line with some size and speed.
Setoguchi and Mitchell are the two players that are underperforming most noticeably on the ice, Seto is not getting his shot off and not getting to open areas, Mitchell has not regained his speed and maneuverability. Clowe-Pavelski are adapting to the loss of Michalek, and Setoguchi has struggled to fill that role, but if he simplifies his game and drives the net he can still be a factor. Mitchell is looking small, and with slow wide turns he has not been as effective on the forecheck. Based on past history, I do not think you can pencil him in for a much larger offensive role.
So do the Sharks shore up the defense with limited cap room at the trade deadline, hold the status quo, or bring in 1-2 guys from Worcester. Still too soon to tell, but the time to find out is now instead of using Staubitz and Shelley regularly in my opinion. You have to be able to get goals from all 4 forward lines, right now that is not the case.
by pj48 on Jan 13, 2010 4:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Do we even need Shelley or Staubitz in the post season?
Great points, and I agree, that Shelley and Staubitz just slow us down and could prove to be a liability in the post season when teams are more careful about taking penalties and staying out of the sin bin.
When Malhotra gets back, I love our 3rd line. They will surprise some teams in the playoffs with their energy and intense forecheck.
The biggest question mark will be our 2nd line. Do we get zero production from them just like last year in the playoffs against Anaheim, or do they find some chemistry and become a force? I think that is what DW and McClellan are trying to figure out and that is why Seto has stayed down there and why Mitchell is usually down on the bottom line.
I say this cautiosly and with much trepidation, I don’t hear much playoff talk yet and I wonder if that has to do anything with our early exits the past several seasons? It’s obvioius we’ll make it and I actually don’t care who we play or in which round. I think you have to win on the road and get great goaltending and secondary scoring no matter who you’re playing or when.
I also think Chicago is a tough draw, but you usually have to beat the best in order to win it all. It would be nice for a change if we were the team others were looking at with fear. I think that can happen this year if we’re firing on all cylindars going into the second season. The talent is there, but is the will to win?
by 1 and done on Jan 14, 2010 7:09 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True story
East coast and Canadian hockey fans love to criticize Sharks fans, hell, west coast hockey fans in general, calling us ignorant, uninformed, and merely fans of a single team rather than of the sport as a whole
I have a story to go along with that. Whilst on vacation over Christmas, I ran into a Canadiens fan. I told him I was a fan of the Sharks after noticing his Habs hat. He was very very surprised that I knew as much as I did. He also asked if I know who Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur were and like, who doesn’t..and he was like “wow you’re really a fan!”
He even said “It’s amazing how you can have hockey in that climate.”
We talked for at least 20 minutes.
I should mention he was Canadian. I hope he went back with a better view of California hockey fans. :)
I have a friend named Ray. Ray makes mediocre salsa but buys good tequila.- Randy Hahn
by ohmymarleau on Jan 13, 2010 9:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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