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How The West Has Changed

As has been widely reported, Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke made the first big splash in the 2010 trade market yesterday, acquiring Dion Phaneuf, Fredrik Sjostrom, prospect Keith Aulie, and Jean-Sebastien Giguere from the Calgary Flames and Anaheim Ducks respectively.

There's been some discussion of Fear The Fin already (found here), but I thought I'd take the time to chime in on how the two Western Conference GM's fared yesterday, and how it changes the complexion of the playoff picture going forward.

1_medium

Who's In: Jason Blake, Vesa Toskala

Who's Out: Jean-Sebastien Giguere

The Skinny: Jonas Hiller's extension on Saturday re-ignited the Giguere rumors, with nearly all sources speculating that Toronto would be his destination considering the Brian Burke and Francois Allaire connection. That speculation, as we now know, turned out to be correct.

Earl Sleek of BoC has a great post detailing why it's a win-win for both clubs from a salary management standpoint, and it's a good point to make-- both organizations were swapping contracts that didn't work with their current alignment, and with the market value of all players involved nearly zero, they were ideal trade partners. I'm surprised Anaheim didn't have to send draft picks Toronto's way, especially with the Kessel deal depleting the Leafs pool, and I think you have to commend Bob Murray for retaining those assets.

On-ice, immediately, I think the Ducks are treading water at best and took a slight step back at worst considering Blake is a middling forward who is past his prime (although, admittedly, playing top-six minutes with Anaheim offers much more opportunity than top-six minutes with Toronto), and Vesa Toskala's career has taken a nose-dive ever since leaving San Jose. The Ducks are now without a proven backup if Hiller regresses and/or goes down with an injury, but on a team that is dealing with an internal cap around $50 M, it's hard to plug all potential holes. It was a move that had to be made.

Verdict: Anaheim gets slightly better on the offensive front, but loses depth at the goaltending position. Wash.

Star-divide

50_medium

Who's In: Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers, Matt Stajan, Ian White

Who's Out: Dion Phaneuf, Keith Aulie, Fredrik Sjostrom

The Skinny: Everyone likely knows how I feel about Dion Phaneuf, but here's a snippet from an article detailing the San Jose Sharks Olympic players.

Phaneuf probably has some supporters somewhere, but I'd be very surprised if he is even getting a second look from the Canadian brass-- very subpar in the defensive zone, and although an Olympic team won't be hampered by his overpaid contract, taking a flyer on him based off reputation alone is not a recipe for success.

- San Jose Sharks 2010 Olympic Hockey Preview, 12/2/09

Fact of the matter is that Calgary had $20.8 M invested in four defenseman (Phaneuf, Bouwmeester, Regehr, Sarich), and with their scoring output falling, Phaneuf made the most sense-- Bouwmeester should have made the Canadian Olympic Team, and Robyn Regehr is one of the best shutdown blueliners in the league today. Those are two big-time stoppers on the blueline, and with Mark Giordano playing very well this season, this is a great move for Calgary.

On-ice, immediately, I think the Flames vastly improve. Even with Phaneuf I think they make the playoffs and pose a threat, but now their team is much more balanced from front to back. Ian White has been one of the best blueliners on the much-maligned Leafs unit this season, and he will be a more than suitable replacement for Phaneuf considering Calgary already has Bouwmeester and Regehr to do the heavy lifting on that unit. Matt Stajan is likely to center Jarome Iginla in what is shaping up to be a career year, and Niklas Hagman is easily a 20+ goal guy from season to season, with the potential to crack 30 this year. Jamal Mayers is nothing to write home about, but since he's in the last year of his contract, parting ways with him in the offseason won't be an issue.

This is a clear win for the Flames in my opinion, and puts them back in the conversation for the Northwest division race. They are a much better team than they were yesterday, and will be a tough team to face in the playoffs. Watch for an upset in the first round.

Verdict: Calgary gets better on the offensive front, nearly breaks even defensively. Clear win.

*****

Final Thoughts: In terms of how this relates to the competition San Jose can reasonably expect from the two teams...

  • If Hiller stays healthy and continues to play well the Ducks are maybe a little tougher to play with the addition of Blake, but not nearly as good as San Jose on paper.
  • The Flames are a much better team, and although they still may not be as good as San Jose on paper, a playoff series between the two teams would be tightly contested. Not an ideal matchup no matter what the standings may tell you.

 

Go Sharks.

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Good analysis.

What are your thoughts on the possibility of Jokinen being swapped for Kotalik and Higgins?

I have no idea why they’d do that deal, it seams like they would have gotten out of one bad salary deal for them and walked right into another. Then again, I can’t understand how Sather talks anybody into taking on his stupid contracts.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Feb 1, 2010 3:59 PM PST reply actions  

I agree— if Sutter is interested in Higgins (the only thing that makes sense), why not take a run at him in the offseason when he’s a UFA? Although you move Jokinen who obviously hasn’t worked out, there’s no cap space left to make another deal.

Kotalik is just bad business. Two more years left on a $3.0 M deal, while Jokinen comes off the books at the end of this season.

Essentially, at the end of the day, you’re left with $3 M on the books the next two years for a vastly underperforming player. Makes no sense.

Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution

by Mr. Plank on Feb 1, 2010 4:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with the article except for Toskala

I think he’s done pretty good considering he’s been playing for Toronto. Toronto’s defense is horrible and has been letting the starting goalie hanging out to dry. The only reason the Monster’s are better is because he’s just that good. I expect around a .905 to .912 SP% in Anaheim. His main problem is consistency, but when play for such a porous defence, how can you confidence not be shaken.

And as for Phaneuf, I agree that he is overated, but he is still really good and may be able to help shore up Toronto’s horrible defense a little bit. But Calgary is much improved offensively with this deal.

And also, Burke said he was not done, so it sounds like he is going for an overhaul for the Maple Leafs. I think that’s a good thing as long as you don’t trade away your good prospects.

I'm warning you! I have ADHD and I know how to use it!!!

by Diamondback15 on Feb 1, 2010 4:08 PM PST reply actions  

Tosk lets in a lot of soft goals, not only because he gets hung out to dry (I take a cathartic joy in watching leafs games on center ice). He’s just bad right now.

The weak defense bit is just an excuse. Good goalies excell in high pressure environments. Look at Nabokov this year, or Anderson, or Vokoun. All of these guys face an enormous amount of shots right now and step up. Toskala has withered and died out there in Toronto.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Feb 1, 2010 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not saying he is a great goalie, just above average

On a good team, Vesa is a solid goaltender that can do just enough for your team to win.

I'm warning you! I have ADHD and I know how to use it!!!

by Diamondback15 on Feb 1, 2010 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

When he was in SJ, sure.

Not anymore, ever since his surgeries he’s too slow and has zero confidence. He’s just bad.

I’m sure there is some fondness for our former Shark, but he’s nowhere near the goalie he was then.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Feb 1, 2010 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

But is Toskala that guy?

Injuries aside, Given his track record in Toronto I’d say that Toskala isnt that guy. He had a hot streak in San Jose, but has been stone cold ever since.

"iaT"S FUCKINGE LIEK CONICO DO MAYO!!!!!111"
Mr. K. 5/5/2009

by Morti on Feb 1, 2010 4:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree about Calgary...

They kinda scare me now. When I saw who was going back to Calgary for an entirely overrated D-man, I was stunned. Stajan has been rock solid in the middle this year, and Hagman has no problem lighting the lamp. White is a more than suitable replacement for Phaneuf. They had to do something after this slide they were on, and if Stajan and Hagman can perform anywhere near where they were in Toronto (which shouldn’t be hard with better pieces around them), Calgary is going to be a tough foe to face.

"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott

by ZeroIndulgence on Feb 1, 2010 4:30 PM PST reply actions  

That old Mighty Ducks logo posted in the article is way better than that P.O.S one they currently have.

Proud member of the "Don't Trade Marleau" club.
Fear the Fin: Where Sharks Fans Aren't Like Other Sharks Fans.

by SharksFanEst.1994 on Feb 1, 2010 7:45 PM PST reply actions  

No argument here — my license plate frame still says “Mighty” on it.

http://www.battleofcali.com/

by Earl Sleek on Feb 1, 2010 8:00 PM PST up reply actions  

For some reason, I still feel that Phaneuf would dominate the Sharks in a playoff series. He is always scoring and always seems to have Nabby’s number. I think they obviously got much better offensively, but I am just not as scared of them without Phaneuf.

by drub12 on Feb 1, 2010 10:36 PM PST reply actions  

Post updated with the Flames-Rangers trade.

Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution

by Mr. Plank on Feb 1, 2010 10:53 PM PST reply actions  

Scratch that— it can be found here now. The updated version looked horrible.

Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution

by Mr. Plank on Feb 1, 2010 11:12 PM PST up reply actions  

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