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Evgeni Nabokov: Good goaltender, but is he a product of the system?

Small sample size won't be a problem with this one.

As I mentioned earlier today, Evgeni Nabokov has been hands down the Team MVP this season despite seeing more starts than I am comfortable with. He's done an excellent job of keeping pucks out of the net, and is well on his way to a Vezina nomination-- a bid that will be much stronger than the case he made in 2007-2008.

Nabokov has been a mainstay in San Jose now for nearly a decade. From his rookie year where he won a Calder Trophy to 2009-2010 where he has masked a lot of the teams defensive issues, his acrobatic saves and ability to log large amounts of starts have made him a beloved figure amongst the fanbase.

During his time here, six other goaltenders have received starts between the pipes. In order of appearance, those goaltenders are Steve Shields, Miikka Kiprusoff, Vesa Toskala, Nolan Schaefer, Thomas Greiss, and Brian Boucher.

Since 2000-2001, here are the raw totals of Nabokov vs. his goaltending counterparts:


Evgeni Nabokov vs. Counterparts (00-01 to Present Day)

Year
GP
Win % SA
GA
SV GAA SV%
Evgeni Nabokov
537 53.29 14,149 1235 12,914 2.37 91.2
Counterparts
232
52.86 5627
502 5125 2.43 91.0

Nearly identical.

With the exception of this year and 07-08 (where Brian Boucher was signed in late February due to Ron Wilson's refusal to start Thomas Greiss), Nabokov has not significantly distanced himself from his goaltending counterparts in terms of SV%. In fact, you could even make the case that Thomas Greiss has more than held his own when called upon for starts, even if Nabokov has clearly been the better goaltender. A .918 SV% from your backup is definitely nothing to sneeze at.

Over this ten year period, Nabokov has seen a similar number of shots against per 60 minutes (27.20 for his backups, 27.18 for Nabokov); in other words, the notion that he may be seeing a higher shot volume because the team trusts him more does not hold weight. The defense has played the same in front of him as they have in front of any other goaltender that has worn teal.

Post-lockout, Nabokov has a .911 SV%. Amongst goaltenders who have seen at least 100 starts in this time span, he is currently 21st overall. No matter which way you cut it, that is not elite.

This is not to say that Nabokov is a bad goaltender; he is most definitely a good one, and this year has proven that. A Vezina Trophy is a distinct possibility, and he has been hands down the Team MVP in my book. The Sharks will need him at his best during the postseason because without him, they would not nearly have had the same amount of success they have achieved this year.

However, this is to say that Nabokov has not outplayed his backups over the course of his decade with the team. With a possible statistical outlier in SV% this season due to a contract year, increasing age, San Jose's tight salary cap constraints, as well as the fact that players in his situation (free agent coming off a career year in his mid-30's) generally look for a 3+ year deal to ensure one last big payday, it deserves to be said that GM Doug Wilson will have one big decision on his hands come July 1st. Especially considering Patrick Marleau is in the midst of a career year as well.

Thomas Greiss hasn't received enough starts this season, and this bothers me on two levels-- the first is that which I outlined earlier today, and the second is that he has effectively made it much more difficult to make a decision with Nabokov's impending free agency.

Nabokov is good. And he has been much, much more than good this season. But if I'm Doug Wilson, I tread very carefully when approaching contract negotiations next summer. Even with the UFA pool thinner than Ryan Getzlaf's hairline.

Here's to a hometown discount.

 

Go Sharks.

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Zing!
Even with the UFA pool thinner than Ryan Getzlaf’s hairline.

That was great.

by TnSD11 on Mar 8, 2010 2:11 PM PST reply actions  

I support analysis that makes fun of Ducks

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Mar 8, 2010 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Nabby has been Vezina worthy this year. No doubt. I mean, he won’t win. Ryan Miller has that all but locked up. But he should get a nomination.

The Sharks in the past have always been a pretty good team at limiting scoring and such. They’ve had a solid blueline, and did their best to keep opposing scorers down. In that regard, I think that Nabby might appear to be a product of the system. This season, though, he has had a less than stellar blueline, and has put up even better numbers. Maybe its the whole contract year thing, but he’s definately proven his worth this season. Let’s hope it continues for the next few months.

"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott

by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 8, 2010 2:23 PM PST reply actions  

Miller will win, he’s also his team’s MVP, made a massive splash at the Olympic (as opposed to Nabokov’s belly flop) has numbers that are as good or better, has a ton of starts and has more shutouts.

I love what Nabby has done this season, but even I’d put Miller at #1.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Mar 8, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess for Americans silver medals is a big splash.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 3:50 PM PST up reply actions  

When you weren’t expected to medal, and pushed the Canadians’ stacked team to the brink, well, yes, silver is a pretty big splash.

Miller’s splash has nothing to do with the color of his medal, though. It has to do with how amazingly awesome he played throughout the tournament.

"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott

by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 8, 2010 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

It’s probably also has something to do with only two gold medals in 80 years of playing in the Olympics (both are subject to numerous movies and both called “Miracle on Ice”) vs 8 gold medals in 50 years..

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 3:58 PM PST up reply actions  

PS – I should probably hold off my trash talking for four more years.. The sooner I forget the Olympics, the better.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah bro, you’re trash talking hold 0 weight right now.

Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.

by TCY on Mar 8, 2010 4:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Enough said.

The fact that this was like 30 years ago is irrelevant in my eyes.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 4:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Notice how Tretiak looks like he didn’t even break the sweat in the final game.

That’s how Nabokov should look like if we want to win the Cup. Someone should put that picture in Blake and Murray lockers.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

What country is this CCCP they have on their chests?

Does it still exist?

;)

They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn

by ElvisVF101 on Mar 8, 2010 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

In our hearts, man.. In our hearts.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions  

excellent post

which begs the question; nabby and the dollardollar bills y’all or griess plus some new blood?

Boyle for Captain, Marleau for Govn'r, Pavs for President! Go Sharks!

by Aero72 on Mar 8, 2010 2:30 PM PST reply actions  

Question for those in the know

What is the likelihood that Stalock is our starting goalie next season?

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Mar 8, 2010 3:37 PM PST reply actions  

Probably as likely as Couture getting no. 1 center role.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 3:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Somewhere between 0% and 0%

Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.

by TCY on Mar 8, 2010 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Really?

Isn’t he killing it in Worcester? I honestly have no clue how the minors work in hockey, and what kind of jump it is to the NHL, so I apologize if my questions are absurdly stupid.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Mar 8, 2010 5:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, he’s doing well in Worcester, but generally goalies need at least a full season or so in the minors before they’re ready for the rigors of professional hockey. Especially those jumping from college – there are far fewer games in college than in the AHL or NHL, so a lot of college players get burned out midway during their first professional season.

That, and he’s an AHL rookie who hasn’t seen a minute of NHL action. There is a possibility that he might steal the starting job next year if Greiss is the starter and he’s the backup, but that’s not that common.

"I think I realized after the second or third punch, I should have taken his helmet off sooner." - Ryane Clowe
Proud member of the "Re-Sign Marleau" Club
Fools and Sages

by mymclife on Mar 8, 2010 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

His numbers really dipped in the second half of the season. He needs better conditioning this summer now that he understands what being the starting goalie for a professional team is like.

He’s going to be very good I think, but he still needs some work, I don’t know if I’d want to stick Stanley cup aspirations on his back just yet. If we were rebuilding then it would probably be a lot more likely.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Mar 8, 2010 5:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Greiss was killing it in Worcester last year too

Just sayin’

They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn

by ElvisVF101 on Mar 8, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Not that we’ve seen enough of him to decide whether that meant he was ready for the NHL or not. He’s looked solid enough in the few games he’s allowed to play in.

"I want people to be afraid of how much they love me." ~Michael Scott

by ZeroIndulgence on Mar 8, 2010 6:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Cool, thanks for the explanations everyone.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Mar 8, 2010 6:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Just saying, if anyone not named Nabokov is going to start next year it would be Griess, not Stalock.

Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.

by TCY on Mar 8, 2010 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

That’s some quality analysis you came up with today, Plank. I’m not sure we’ll get any definite answers to the Nabokov issue for few more weeks. However, looking back at his career in San Jose, statistically or not, it’s hard to ignore the fact that he’s been one of the key reasons why Sharks have done the way they’re done in terms of performance in those years since he became a starter. In fact, as we see from your numbers, the Sharks typically did as well or as bad as Nabokov did that season with few exceptions when he was either injured or on the bench. The fate of our club lies almost parallel to the fate of Nabokov.

But then again, we can reverse and say that bad #’s typically went with bad defense or bad PP execution or shaking knees against the Red Wings in 07 or the Stars in 08..
 
The point here is that if we live by Nabokov, we die by Nabokov. I am still waiting for a series when our players can bail Nabby out and win a few games for him, like Team Russia did in the final against Canada in Quebec in 08 following few softies that Nabby allowed that still did not prevent Russia from beating Canada.

by Ivano M on Mar 8, 2010 4:18 PM PST reply actions  

here's to hoping for hometown discounts

in the hope of winning a cup in San Jose.

The future holds some quality goalies, that should provide a decent “ride the hot goalie” platoon at worse and we’d end up with some combo of Greiss, Stalock, Sateri and Sexsmith playing like Nabby, Kipper and Toskala did in 2001-05

by buddahead9 on Mar 8, 2010 4:43 PM PST reply actions  

Goaltenders' effect is overrated

I feel pretty darn confident in saying that regardless if we have Nabokov, Greiss, or the god of goaltending, Jarmo Myllys, as our starting goaltender, the Sharks’ fortunes will rise and fall as a collective— not because of the man in between the pipes. Sure an elite goalie will steal a handful of games during the season, but I think that the goaltenders’ effect is very much overrated. And a difference in goaltending will have an almost imperceivable effect in the standings.

In the last 20 years, IMO the two goaltenders who single-handedly lead their team to the Stanley Cup Finals were Patrick Roy in 93, Hasek in 99 and Giggy in 03. Martin Brodeur has never won a Conn Smythe. Luongo has never tasted the WCF.

After watching Nabokov’s play since his rookie year, I feel that his standup-hybrid style of goaltending is almost a handicap to the system. When he’s on, he’s on. But a lot like Brodeur, when he’s off—- man he is off. That five-hole is open like Lindsay Lohan’s film bookings. Unlike a Luongo who still has the size and positioning to win games even when he can’t stop a beachball (see USA v Canada) Nabokov doesn’t play that style.

Do I want to see Nabokov go as a UFA? No.
But between Marleau, Pavelski, and Nabby; Nabby is the lowest of my priorities.

Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life

Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?

by Will Bulldozer on Mar 8, 2010 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

You said two goaltenders, yet listed 3 :)

I agree with you though. Marleau and Pavelski definitely are higher priorities than Nabby.

by sharks in oc on Mar 8, 2010 5:11 PM PST up reply actions  

ha— good catch. I threw in Hasek’s name at the very end.

Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life

Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?

by Will Bulldozer on Mar 8, 2010 5:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Great post Will. Though I would of course disagree with the beachball assertion.

If Lui can see it, he usually can stop it. The thing with those big butterfly goalies like Luongo, Miller, and several others around the league, is that they can stop what they can’t see. Just getting low, and being upright will get you some stops through traffic.

Reaction goalies like Nabby and Brodeur are exactly like you said. They are a joy to watch when they are on, and can steal a game or series. Painful when they are off.

I’d add Cam Ward to your list too…what was it…2004?

"Of course you know, this means war!!"

Bugs Bunny

by vancitydan on Mar 8, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Haha— if I knew there was gonna be Canucks fans commenting on my Luongo comments, I would’ve held back a bit. Although he’s had quite a bit of woes against the Hawks. btw Ryan Kesler is a beast of a hockey player.

Cam Ward was great in 06, but I was on the fence about his Conn Smythe. I thought Brind’amour or Staal were more deserving but voters were heavily influenced by the fact that Ward was a rookie coming out of left field.

Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life

Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?

by Will Bulldozer on Mar 8, 2010 8:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Its all good. I like reading posts from other fans for the differing viewpoint.

We like Luongo here…thats what counts. Well, most of us, some in Canuck Nation think we should go 82-0-0 and Luongo should have 40 shutouts!

Never known for their subtle nature…

A perfect example was our most recent game vs. the Avs. Down 3-0 after one, and he could be blamed for 2 of them. Looked BAD. But after it was 4-1, backstopped his guys with about 4 point blank 10 bell saves. Held them there when his team was pressing to catch up. That’s quality goaltending too. Playing that way when you are not at your best, and have been on the road for 40+ days…

Down when it matters.

Yeah…Kes is a beast. Getting him signed got more expensive this year, but he is going NO WHERE!

I hear you on Brindy and Staal. I thought Cam was the difference in several games. He really stepped it up in elimination games that year.

Murphy ; "You finished with the Twins against Nashville, and AV elected to keep you guys together for today, were you happy with the decision?"

Mikael Samuelsson ; " I was happy with it...Oh yeah. Sure"

by vancitydan on Mar 10, 2010 11:44 AM PST up reply actions  

That five-hole is open like Lindsay Lohan’s film bookings.

I totally thought that sentence was gonna end differently.

No doubt with the huge 5 day layoff between last Saturday’s game and the next game, Nabokov will see another start. And Greiss will keep looking mighty sexy in his baseball cap.

Scott Nichol re: his US-born son: He was all about Canada. He’s only six so I can manipulate him pretty good.
Puck Daddy: You would definitely hate the Ducks more than you'd hate the Kings, right?
Joe Pavelski: Yeah, definitely.

by DownRUpLYB on Mar 8, 2010 8:54 PM PST up reply actions  

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