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Sharks should still be looking for PK Help as offseason rolls along

As the slow San Jose summer burns along at a lethargic pace, you have to figure Doug Wilson is methodically working the phones attempting to find a solution for the blueline. After Chicago matched an offer sheet to Niklas Hjalmarsson two weeks ago news out of the Sharks camp has been brutally quiet, but it's clear he has identified this position as a need for the right price. At this point one can only point to the calendar, softly bat sleepy eyelashes, and methodically nod in response to the realization that there remains precisely fifty seven days until training camp begins.

It's brutal, and it's no fun. But it's the way things always are this time of year. And there's still time to improve.

At any rate, riffing one more time about the need for a defenseman to be signed serves little purpose except to rehash old arguments that I've been cranking out for an entire year now. It's a tired exercise (one that I would have no trouble re-visiting tomorrow, mind), but today let's turn our attention to something that has flown under the radar a bit in our discussions concerning the 2010-2011 manifestation of the San Jose Sharks.

Forwards who can log shorthanded minutes.

With the departure of Manny Malhotra to the Vancouver Canucks, and the loss of Jed Ortmeyer due to budget/personnel decisions, there remains a bit of a hole in the Sharks penalty kill. Both of those individuals contributed a combined 3:36 per night during the regular season, were third (Malhotra) and fifth (Ortmeyer) in SH TOI per game, and went up against the toughest (Malhotra) and fourth toughest (Ortmeyer) quality of competition for Sharks players with at least 1:00 per on the kill.

Furthermore, Malhotra's prowess from the faceoff circle will be sorely missed from the shorthanded unit next season. He was 62.5% from the circle last season, and an even more astounding 65.3% on the kill (!!!), by far the most effective player in this area for San Jose. Although I have shown before that a team's faceoff ability does not correlate with a successful penalty kill (read: there are other factors, such as goaltender performance, shot blocking, pressuring the puck carrier, and getting sticks in passing lanes that seem to have a greater effect on the success of the kill), it's no secret that winning a draw in the defensive end does a lot of good in cutting down opponent's zone possession time with the man advantage.

Star-divide

With that established, let's examine the current Sharks roster as it stands and see what kind of in-house upgrades could be available for McLellan to utilize when attempting to make up the 3:36 lost when Malhotra and Ortmeyer vacated the the Sharks locker room:


Sharks Penalty Kill (Forwards)

09-10 TOI#
Player Pos
SH FO%09-10 TOI
1 Patrick Marleau
C/W
43.0%
2:26
2 Joe Pavelski
C
57.0%
2:24
4 Scott Nichol
C
58.5%
2:05
6 Joe Thornton
C
55.9%
0:58
7 Dany Heatley
W
N/A
0:51
8 Torrey Mitchell
W
N/A
0:45
9 Jamie McGinn
W
N/A
0:27
- NEED
-
-
3:36

Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley shouldn't see an increase in minutes on the kill next year-- although they're phenomenal offensive players, defensively there are some question marks with both. Less than a minute is ideal for their services, where they would hop on at the end of shifts when the penalized player is due to come out of the box. This allows San Jose to potentially capitalize on a team that has primarily offensive players on the ice who are tired from their man advantage excursions, or in other words, personnel that would be at a disadvantage when attempting to defend against the Sharks two most potent offensive weapons.

Taking that into account, of the seven players who logged significant shorthanded time, the only individuals I could see making a jump up in minutes is Torrey Mitchell, and on some level, Jamie McGinn. McGinn seems to be on the road to becoming a decent two way guy with some scoring pop, and could probably log two shifts on the kill next year. We'll plug him into Mitchell's spot next season, giving him 0:45 a night and a net gain of roughly 20 seconds for San Jose.

This leaves us with about 3:16 left of shorthanded time the Sharks need to make up.

Now on to Torrey Mitchell. Astute fans will remember his brilliance under Ron Wilson during 07-08, where Mitchell and former Shark Mike Grier composed a dangerous 1-2 punch on the kill that was very effective in their time spent together. Although McLellan didn't utilize Mitchell that often during the regular season, possibly due to health concerns stemming from his broken leg sustained before the 08-09 year, McLellan did plug him into that role during the playoffs where Mitchell logged 1:24 (4th overall). For the sake of this study we will assume he takes Jed Ortmeyer's spot on the kill next season and logs somewhere between his 07-08 TOI (2:36) and Jed Ortmeyer's 09-10 TOI (1:30). That gives us an estimate of about 2:00 for Mitchell, which when subtracted from his 09-10 ice time (0:45) nets us a gain of 1:15. It's a bold estimate considering the ice time he has seen in this area under McLellan, but one I'm willing to make in order for us to understand that even in the best possible situation the Sharks will need to bring in another forward who can kill penalties.

This leaves us with about 2:00 of shorthanded time the Sharks need to make up.

At this point, you can go two routes. Attempt to sign a free agent who can come in and log some big minutes on the kill, or throw a guy like Logan Couture into the fire, bump up Thornton/Heatley's minutes, add another Worcester player into the mix, and roll with what you have within the system. While I think Couture could contribute to the kill next season (and likely will), the amount of things that need to break correctly for the Sharks in this area is considerable in that you're relying on some unproven NHL talent to fill these holes (Couture, Worcester) alongside players who haven't demonstrated a real knack for the defensive zone (Thornton, Heatley).

Furthermore, although Scott Nichol was healthy last season, he has been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career, and at his age (35 years old) there needs to be a safety blanket of sorts in the event he goes down for a significant amount of time. Add in the fact that two of your best offensive players (Marleau, Pavelski) will be leaned on heavily to play the tough shorthanded minutes for the team, possibly decreasing their effectiveness as the year goes along, and it seems fairly clear to me that signing a guy outside of the organization is the best route to take to fill the hole.

Although we're not focusing on defenseman today, Rob Blake's retirement (2:53 in 09-10, second on the blueline) and a below average defensive core also indicates a need for a forward that can play the kill. It's a team game out there, and with the defensive situation still unresolved, there remains a good chunk of uncertainty as to just how effective the kill would be next season if a defensive minded blueliner and a penalty killing forward are not brought into the mix.

In summation, replacing Malhotra's defensive presence on the kill seems like the most effective way to approach this issue. Although the Sharks have some quality centers at the top, Marleau's porous shorthanded faceoff percentage (43.0%) allows you a good opportunity to add a center to make the lineup as strong down the middle as it could be. This benefits the even strength area as well, by making it easier to put the blossoming Logan Couture into a swing role where he could play as a second line winger/third line center-- as it stands now he would be required to play as a pivot on the third line, but if Ryane Clowe is traded in order to beef up the blueline, there is an opportunity for Couture to make a jump into the top six (Marleau, Thornton, Pavelski, Setoguchi, Heatley as your remaining top five). The addition of a penalty killing center helps to ease that transition, and allows McLellan much more flexibility when composing his lineup on any given night.

Potential targets will be covered in the coming weeks, but Eric Belanger (who James Mirtle reports is close to signing with an undisclosed team), John Madden (who we covered in our podcast two weeks ago), and Jeff Halpern are the three targets who should be getting the most attention for teams attempting to obtain a solid penalty killing center with some offensive upside. All three of these players would get a big thumbs from yours truly, and immediately improve the Sharks roster if obtained at the right price.

 

Go Sharks.

0 recs  |  Comment 48 comments |

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Woohoo! You’re a gem, Plank. I’m going to savor this post, bit by bit, making it stretch as far as possible over the next few days.

..:Fear The Fin:..

by OtherKid on Jul 27, 2010 2:45 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m at work trying to finish some stuff up so i haven’t had a chance to read the article yet but Torrey Mitchell looked awesome on the PK during the playoffs. (i think they only just started playing Mitchell on the PK during the Detroit/Chicago series)

Mitchell is damn good with his stick and i hope he remains a Shark because i think he still has a lot of potential. At the very least he’s a fast player with great defensive skills who would be a great penalty killer for us.

by Khaaz on Jul 27, 2010 2:48 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I agree, I like Mitchell a lot. Really hope not to see him go anywhere next year. Not sure how on or off other GM’s radars he is – I think this will determine his future as a Shark or not. If other GMs aren’t excited by him, DW won’t get a trade compelling enough to actually go through with, I hope, anyways.

by ninakix on Jul 27, 2010 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree w/ what you said Planky

Thornton/Heatley at the end of the kill for a bit…Mitchell gets a small bump..Pavs/Marleau/Nichol for the majority of kill, and throw in Couture/McGinn once in awhile. Adding Madden and Belanger would be phenomenal for our PK! Good read Plank! :D

Go Sharks!

by Dmitriy on Jul 27, 2010 2:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Belanger would be ideal

A Vet. Good PKer, some scoring punch, good on the dot.

I’ve been hoping DW targets and signs him. $1.5m per / 2 or 3 yrs. (Mitchell may have to go but so be it.)

Another one is Richard Park. Not a center but fits all of the above

by IsThisTheYear? on Jul 27, 2010 2:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Picking up Belanger and then losing Mitchell sorta defeats the purpose of this article. Mitchell will likely be a big part of our penalty kill this year in addition to some piece we still need to add.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Jul 27, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

nah

I think Juicy will start to get some PK time. He should. And McLaren was a decent PKer in Worcester so he should get some of those Jed minutes.

If it takes moving Mitchell to free up space for Belanger, I’d be all for it.

by IsThisTheYear? on Jul 27, 2010 3:10 PM PDT reply actions  

The more I think about this season

The sadder I get. I know it’s only July, but looking at the team as it is, barring some kind of Quantum Leap in skill level from Mitchell, I’m not holding out much hope. I keep being reminded of all of these players that need to be brought in for our D, and for our PK and the cap situation and my head wants to explode.

An article like this kind of kicks the idea of signing Modano to the curb too.

Having said that, Why the fuck is Ray Ratto staring at me whilst I read this!

"iaT"S FUCKINGE LIEK CONICO DO MAYO!!!!!111"
Mr. K. 5/5/2009

by Morti on Jul 27, 2010 3:21 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Why the fuck is Ray Ratto staring at me whilst I read this!

Because you don’t surf with an ad blocker.

"Playing Detroit in the playoffs is like paying your taxes. You either pay now or pay later." - Suisun Dan
My Twitter

by Nael M. on Jul 27, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

If I surfed with ad blocker

I’d have missed the Newgy robo ping pong table ads!

http://www.newgy.com/

Where would my life be without that little gem?

"iaT"S FUCKINGE LIEK CONICO DO MAYO!!!!!111"
Mr. K. 5/5/2009

by Morti on Jul 27, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have to disagree here.

Couture has always had a reputation as a good two-way centerman, and should be able to cover Malhotra’s responsibilities quite effectively. (Malhotra was actually rather terrible at PKing anyway, with a terrible GA/60, by far the worst among the regular PKers. Ortmeyer was 2nd worst and didn’t have a tough QoC as an excuse either.)

As replacements, my hope is that Mitchell gets better and can take on a more serious role. He was absolutely terrible last year in his rather limited role, worse than anyone else on the team who got any PK minutes at all. If not, I think some combination of Couture, McGinn, and possibly McLaren should be able to take those minutes.

To sum it all up, Couture and McGinn or Mitchell should be able to take on Malhotra and Ortmeyer’s minutes effectively. And McLaren who has PK’ed rather well in the AHL should be able to take up any remaining slack.

by tarlinian on Jul 27, 2010 3:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Where are you getting these stats? I don’t remember Mitchell playing on the PK at all during the regular season. I can’t imagine Malhotra was a terrible PKer, he looked awesome; he was great at blocking shots from the point. (he even stopped one with his face)

by Khaaz on Jul 27, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stats are from behindthenet.ca

See here for the report

Malhotra has a +-/60 of 7.25. (i.e., for every shorthanded (4-5 specifically) 60 minutes Malhotra was on the ice the Sharks’ goal differential was -7.25). Among guys with more than 30 seconds of PK ice time per game, Mitchell (0.76 minutes of SH ice time/game) was by far the worst with a +/60 of 11.31. Among guys with more than a minute of SH ice time (i.e., the Thornton/Heatley pick on tired PP guys cutoff), Marleau had the best +/60 at 3.12, followed by Nichol at -3.34 and Pavleski at -3.52, all within the same tier. There’s then a rather large jump up to Ortmeyer at -5.23, and then another big jump up to Malhotra at -7.25. I don’t care how big the difference in quality of competition is. (It’s not like Malhotra is playing against top lines and the other guys are going against 4th line scrubs. You’re facing top 6 forwards on the power play by default. The difference in talent between a top unit and 2nd PP unit is not enough to account for such a horrible +/60.

Generally you can sort PK guys into tiers. The Selke nominee/lucky sort of folks are usually in the 2 +/60 range (Toews had a ridiculous year for those interested while he was on the ice, the Hawks outscored their opponents while shorthanded), the good top unit PKers are in the 3 +/60 range, your next tier is in the -(4-5) range. -7 should be reserved for fill-ins or teams that had craptacular goaltending.

by tarlinian on Jul 27, 2010 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stupid formatting

In the paragraph below, i.e., the paragraph above that is stricken through all numbers should be negative.

Malhotra has a +-/60 of 7.25. (i.e., for every shorthanded (4-5 specifically) 60 minutes Malhotra was on the ice the Sharks’ goal differential was 7.25). Among guys with more than 30 seconds of PK ice time per game, Mitchell (0.76 minutes of SH ice time/game) was by far the worst with a differential/60 of 11.31. Among guys with more than a minute of SH ice time (i.e., the Thornton/Heatley pick on tired PP guys cutoff), Marleau had the best differential at 3.12, followed by Nichol at 3.34 and Pavleski at 3.52, all within the same tier. There’s then a rather large jump up to Ortmeyer at 5.23, and then another big jump up to Malhotra at 7.25. I don’t care how big the difference in quality of competition is. (It’s not like Malhotra is playing against top lines and the other guys are going against 4th line scrubs. You’re facing top 6 forwards on the power play by default. The difference in talent between a top unit and 2nd PP unit is not enough to account for such a horrible goal differential on the PK.

by tarlinian on Jul 27, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you look back to 07-08 Mitchell is better’ish 6.26. Certainly not as bad as last year, and comparable to Malhotra.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Jul 27, 2010 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting

I remember thinking Torrey Mitchell had a great playoffs on the PK, but behindthenet rates him as the worst forward on the PK in the playoffs for the Sharks (Malhotra is a close second).

Dan Boyle and Doug Murray should not be playing near the minutes they get on the PK.

I am a huge fan of Malhotra, but perhaps we overshot his importance to this team? He scored at his usual rates, faceoffs have been shown to be overrated, and his PK numbers are not quite as gleaming as we thought. I think Jamie McGinn has the potential, right now, to be a more effective player than Malhotra, and maybe even be just as good on the PK. Blasphemy? Well, McGinn outplayed Malhotra on the kill this postseason. Free McGinn!

by ruben398 on Jul 27, 2010 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Malhotra’s disappearing act on the scoresheet in the playoffs really hurt the team, especially once we got to the Chicago series and the non-Marleau scoring faded away.

I’ll always like Malhotra, but it was pretty easy to get over his departure, especially considering the deal he got from Vancouver (though I do wish he left the conference entirely!).

by Timorous Me on Jul 27, 2010 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Agreed. For the deal he got from the ‘nucks, I’d want some more scoring, or a Selke-caliber defensive performance. Good for Manny for getting that paper, but we don’t have the cap space to pay that kind of money for a pretty good defensive forward.

by ievans on Jul 28, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m a big fan of Mitchell, I like how quick he is. It’ll be interesting to watch him develop – I think he has these flashes of brilliance that sort of fizzle out and don’t get you anywhere much (which might be why you thought he did so well in the playoffs PKs).
As for Malhotra, he’s definitely a very competent player. It’ll be tough to see him in a different sweater next year, but I have some faith this isn’t the end of the world. ;)

by ninakix on Jul 27, 2010 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree, I’m way more worried about the minutes Dan Boyle gets on the PK than the Malhotra replacements.

by tarlinian on Jul 28, 2010 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fuck science!

Mitchell and Malhotra looked great on the PK.

by Khaaz on Jul 28, 2010 12:50 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

My guess is that DW does what he did last year with Malhotra. Waits for Labor Day to roll around, lets the remaining UFAs to dock their yachts for the winter and then realize that they’re desperate for employment and would be willing to sign one-year deals with a contender for a million or less.

Unfortunately I see Belanger gobbled up before then, though I think there’s hope with so many other decent veterans still unsigned.

I could see Halpern falling into this category, along with guys like Kozlov, Nolan, Metropolit, Tucker, Primeau, Scott Walker, Dominic Moore, and Richard Park. I’d be happier with some of those guys more than others, but I do think it’s critical to add one more useful (but not over-the-hill) veteran to the 3rd/4th lines and PK—especially if Clowe/Seto ends up getting traded away. Then maybe two guys.

by Timorous Me on Jul 27, 2010 3:54 PM PDT reply actions  

Could it be that the curse of Palin mask is still upon us? Maybe DW won’t sign another d-man till all FTF members remove it from their profiles.

I have no other explanation for the state of our blueline on July 27th, 2010.

Fear the Fin - where Russians are underappreciated.

by Ivano M on Jul 27, 2010 4:30 PM PDT reply actions  

Done!

When we sign Kovalchuk to play D tomorrow, you can thank me.

by Morti on Jul 27, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s better.

Fear the Fin - where Russians are underappreciated.

by Ivano M on Jul 27, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Robertson!

Fear the Fin: Sharing Joe Thornton's love of wooly mammoths since 2009.

by TCY on Jul 27, 2010 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wait, Kovalchuk to play D? I think I’m missing somethinggg…

by ninakix on Jul 27, 2010 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Proud member of the "Bring Back Semenov" Club

by PNK on Jul 28, 2010 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with this post

My worst nightmare would be Marleau/Pavelski being our #2 PK unit. Not because they’re bad at the penalty kill, but because they are good at offense. The point was made about how Boyle had basically flat production in increased minutes. I feel the same was true of HTML in the playoffs. Patty had 5 goals but was a -2, and was seeing shorthanded time. Clearly, more balance in the lineup is needed, and balance is never more apparent than in short-handed minutes. Pavs was injured on the PK last year. We don’t want to see that again.

They're not getting this kind of coverage at "Hockey Night In Canada" folks! - Randy Hahn

by ElvisVF101 on Jul 27, 2010 5:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Marleau Pavs is going to be our number 1 PK unit regardless of who we bring on. They’re both elite PK guys, and aren’t going to have their minutes reduced. (They’ve been #1/#2 for a couple years now. Marleau-Grier Pavs-Moen/Michalek were the top 2 PK units on the team with Marleau leading in SH ice time/game.) Last time we had bottom 6 guys leading the way on the PK was 07-08.

by tarlinian on Jul 28, 2010 8:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great post – our PK is one area in which I’d hate to see our team regress – not only because of how important it is in terms of winning games, but because it was so dominant this past season and I’m not too keen on cha cha cha cha chaaaanges. In addition to the questionable defensive capabilities of Jumbo, Heater, and even Boyle to a degree, all three of those guys are getting old(er), particularly Jumbo and Boyle, and as you mentioned, I’d hate to see McClellan asking too much of them in terms of minutes, as it would no doubt wear on them as the season progressed. The less SH minutes they have to play, the better, though we may not have a choice. At the same time, I also agree that it’s not productive to lean too heavily on the younger guys as you mentioned, namely Pavs and Mitchell. I guess I just want a perfect solution – call me a dreamer.

..:Fear The Fin:..

by OtherKid on Jul 28, 2010 8:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Malhotra = almost perfect role player

As a 3rd line center and PK, Malhotra was absolutely perfect. Unfortunately, Vancouver decided to pay him 2nd line money for that role (for 3 years, no less). Here’s hoping they can find some other vet to take a $1M contract to fill a role.

"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means" - Inigo Montoya

by ToddCommish on Jul 28, 2010 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jumbo is the same age as Marleau, who is great on the PK.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Jul 28, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jumbo also doesn’t have Marleau’s legs though.

Churning and burning, they yearn for the cup.

Twitter! rmorse05

by sharks in oc on Jul 28, 2010 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

He doesn’t have Marleau’s speed, but that has never been age related. Jumbo still puts up massive minutes and isn’t slowing due to age as far as I can tell. I don’t think his lack of speed has anything to do with lack of leg strength either.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Jul 28, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

You are for sure right about the leg strength, Joe is is a strong dude. However, I think Marleau’s effectiveness on the PK is largely due to his quickness and speed, which Joe doesn’t have too much of.

Churning and burning, they yearn for the cup.

Twitter! rmorse05

by sharks in oc on Jul 28, 2010 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think we’re arguing in circles. I just don’t agree with people who think that Jumbo is getting old. He’s still got a few really good years in him. Same with Patty and Heater. Boyle is the closest we have to an old star player, but even he’s got a couple great years left in him.

"Douglas Murray is a humongous human being." – Drew Remenda

by Evilducks on Jul 28, 2010 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree with everything you just said. I don’t know why I’ve been arguing.

Churning and burning, they yearn for the cup.

Twitter! rmorse05

by sharks in oc on Jul 28, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Probably just savoring the fact that there is something to discuss.

by ninakix on Jul 29, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is one reason why I’d feel pretty good about Joe getting something like a five or six year extension—barring injuries, I could see him producing at a similar rate to last season over the duration of that extension.

by Timorous Me on Jul 28, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey TCY

If you remember me: Turco to Chicago. Mover just got his orders, Turco said he signed there.

by Haves on Jul 28, 2010 1:36 PM PDT reply actions  

very interesting

Churning and burning, they yearn for the cup.

Twitter! rmorse05

by sharks in oc on Jul 28, 2010 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think this is where I say
“Meh.”

"Never start a fight, but ALWAYS finish it."
Bleeding teal since 1997
Founder: Retire Teal #20 with Honors Club

by Noctro on Jul 28, 2010 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hmm, even before Neimi’s arbitration? I guess that’s about how they expect it to go.

by ninakix on Jul 29, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

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