FanPost

Is the Sharks PK really that bad?

A lot of talk about the PK lately.  It's still very early in the season and thus projections right now are not as reliable as they will be after 40 games or so. But if we assume that shooting percentage (goals per shots) on the PK will always regress to a league average of about 13%, (a great write up about shooting percentage here and here), we can normalize every team's PK goals against at this point in the season to see early trends, as well as lucky vs unlucky PK units. (TS = times shorthanded, PKSA = PK shots against, PPGA = PK goals against, PK% = PK shooting percentage, ePKGA = expected PK goals against, ePK% = expected PK%)

 

Rank Team GP TS PK SA PK GA PK% PK SH% ePK GA ePK%
1 MTL 11 47 45 8 83 0.177777778 5.85 0.875531915
2 EDM 11 46 53 5 89.1 0.094339623 6.89 0.850217391
3 NYR 10 48 58 6 87.5 0.103448276 7.54 0.842916667
4 BOS 10 41 52 6 85.4 0.115384615 6.76 0.835121951
5 DET 9 33 42 7 78.8 0.166666667 5.46 0.834545455
6 COL 11 37 48 7 81.1 0.145833333 6.24 0.831351351
7 LAK 11 36 48 5 86.1 0.104166667 6.24 0.826666667
8 SJS 10 38 51 10 73.7 0.196078431 6.63 0.825526316
9 PIT 13 39 54 3 92.3 0.055555556 7.02 0.82
10 TBL 11 49 68 7 85.7 0.102941176 8.84 0.819591837
11 NJD 9 35 49 4 88.6 0.081632653 6.37 0.818
12 TOR 11 47 66 13 72.3 0.196969697 8.58 0.817446809
13 VAN 11 47 66 7 85.1 0.106060606 8.58 0.817446809
14 CAR 11 47 67 9 80.8 0.134328358 8.71 0.814680851
15 ANA 11 46 66 7 84.8 0.106060606 8.58 0.813478261
16 OTT 12 57 83 16 71.9 0.192771084 10.79 0.810701754
17 MIN 10 35 51 8 77.1 0.156862745 6.63 0.810571429
18 WPG 11 49 72 11 77.6 0.152777778 9.36 0.808979592
19 STL 11 36 53 10 72.2 0.188679245 6.89 0.808611111
20 CHI 11 36 53 3 91.7 0.056603774 6.89 0.808611111
21 DAL 11 52 77 7 86.5 0.090909091 10.01 0.8075
22 NSH 11 48 73 6 87.5 0.082191781 9.49 0.802291667
23 CBJ 12 42 64 12 71.4 0.1875 8.32 0.801904762
24 CGY 9 32 52 5 84.4 0.096153846 6.76 0.78875
25 PHX 10 40 65 6 85 0.092307692 8.45 0.78875
26 WSH 9 35 58 8 77.1 0.137931034 7.54 0.784571429
27 FLA 11 32 62 8 75 0.129032258 8.06 0.748125
28 NYI 9 36   5 86.1 #DIV/0!    
29 BUF 10 37   3 91.9 #DIV/0!    
30 PHI 11 54   10 81.5 #DIV/0!  

 

No SA data from NYI, BUF, PHI, so they are not included.  Basically from this data we see a normalized PK% if all teams faced the same PK shooting percentage

We can see which teams have benefited from high and low Sh% by comparing the observed PK% (PK%) with the expected PK% (ePK%). Turns out SJ would be 8th.  Maybe they're higher PK Sh% is due to porous defensive, or maybe the other team's shooters are just getting lucky. But I wouldnt start claiming the sky is falling on the PK just yet.  PIT has benefited the most from poor Sh%, if you had to bet on any team, it would be the PIT's PK% will come down quite a bit.

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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