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SJ Vs. MTL by Expected Points

Last night's game was interesting in that SJ never actually lead until the SO. Here is a look at the team's performance by Expected Points (EP is the average amount of points a league average NHL team would accrue given the game state. The model takes strength, score, home/away, and time into account). I added "CORSI For" to look at the positional battle. ("CORSI for" is all goals, shots, misses, and blocked shots a team generates. It's well correlated with amount of possession.) The bottom graph is just a combination of the 2 synced up in time.

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The quick goals by the sharks are a bit unexpected, but it made for a lot of 5v5 score tied game play. I included "CORSI For" to look how the team fared throughout the game. Clearly S.J had the advantage most of the game. Even accounting for home ice advantage and score effects, the sharks were CORSI dominant throughout the game with CORSI% minimum of 0.52 and an average of 0.616. It's nice to also look at this as compared to the EP graph. It gives you an idea of how teams adjust their play according to score. Clearly MTL turtles after they score in the third. They have a stretch of 10min in which they didnt record a single "CORSI For" event, yet they were gaining EP as the game moved along.

The biggest swing in EP obviously came from Clowe's goal. This accounted for a 1.38 increase in Expected points. (ie. his goal was nearly equivalent to a point and a half in the standings). I also calculated EP for the shootout based on the probability of winning (0.5) and probability of scoring (0.34). Here we see how close the sharks were to winning with a 1.89 EP following Havlat's goal and Cole's miss.

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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