Scoring Chances: Game 39 @ Minnesota

by The Neutral on Jan 11, 2012 9:00 AM PST in Statistical Analysis

A lot of virtual ink has been spilled about how Minnesota's position atop the Western Conference standings in early December was far from indicative of how the team had played to that point in the season and was largely predicated on an unsustainable save percentage. With the Wild having lost 11 of their last 12 games heading into last night's matchup with the Sharks, it would seem that those claims have been validated as the regression is in full effect. Which is what makes what transpired last night in St. Paul that much more puzzling and, from a Minnesota standpoint, impressive.

While the Wild were outchanced 17-14 at even strength overall, largely due to score effects taking hold (and, on this night, biting them in the ass) after the team jumped to a 4-2 lead in the third period, Minnesota dictated the flow of this game from the opening faceoff until the Nick Johnson goal that gave the Wild their first two-goal lead of the night. At that point, Dany Heatley and company had outchanced the Sharks 16-9. San Jose was certainly not in top form but if the Wild can replicate that kind of performance on a regular basis they may have a fighting chance against the great PDO monster. Full scoring chance breakdown after the jump.

Best EV Forward: Joe Thornton (+7)

Worst EV Forward: Ryane Clowe (-4)

Best EV Defenseman: Dan Boyle (+8)

Worst EV Defenseman: Justin Braun (-5)

Period	Totals		EV		PP		5v3 PP		SH		5v3 SH
1	3	8	2	5	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0
2	3	7	3	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0
3	11	4	10	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	19	19	17	14	1	0	1	0	0	5	0	0

Team	Period	Time	Note	SJS						Opponent
MIN	1	19:48	Wellman	29	31	39	60	78	88	4	5	7	17	22	37	5v5
MIN	1	17:20	Powe	3	17	26	31	61	64	3	14	21	34	37	55	5v5
MIN	1	16:08	Cullen	22	29	31	39	44	78	7	17	22	37	44	46	5v5
SJS	1	15:26	Pavelski	8	12	19	31	60	88	9	15	25	37	44	46	5v5
MIN	1	12:56	Goal - Clutterbuck	3	26	29	31	61	78	7	17	22	37	44	46	5v5
MIN	1	8:39	Johnson PP	3	8	12	31	88		3	9	15	21	25	37	4v5
MIN	1	7:41	Schultz PP	22	26	31	44	69		7	17	22	37	46	55	4v5
MIN	1	7:34	Wellman PP	22	26	31	44	69		7	17	22	37	46	55	4v5
SJS	1	6:21	Marleau	8	12	19	31	60	88	4	5	7	17	22	37	5v5
SJS	1	3:52	Goal - Boyle PP	8	12	19	22	26	31	4	14	37	44			5v3
MIN	1	1:00	Heatley	17	22	26	31	44	64	9	15	25	37	44	46	5v5
SJS	2	12:53	Pavelski	8	12	19	22	31	44	3	7	25	34	37	55	5v5
MIN	2	12:18	Heatley	8	12	19	22	31	44	9	15	25	37	44	46	5v5
MIN	2	8:12	Cullen PP	3	19	26	31	88		7	15	17	22	37	46	4v5
MIN	2	7:17	Cullen	8	19	22	31	57	60	4	5	7	9	25	37	5v5
MIN	2	6:34	Goal - Peters	29	31	39	44	57	61	5	14	34	37	43	44	5v5
MIN	2	6:22	Cullen	17	26	31	60	64	88	4	5	7	17	22	37	5v5
SJS	2	4:40	Couture	19	22	31	39	44		7	17	37	44	46		4v4
SJS	2	4:38	Vlasic	19	22	31	39	44		7	17	37	44	46		4v4
MIN	2	3:29	Johnson	10	17	22	26	31	44	3	9	15	25	37	55	5v5
MIN	2	0:27	Wellman PP	3	8	12	31	88		7	17	22	37	46	55	4v5
SJS	3	15:43	Clowe PP	26	29	31	39	60	61	5	7	9	37	55		5v4
SJS	3	13:19	Desjardins	3	22	26	29	31	69	3	7	17	22	37	55	5v5
SJS	3	12:29	Vlasic	17	22	26	31	44	57	16	18	37	43	44	46	5v5
MIN	3	12:18	Goal - Johnson	8	12	19	31	60	88	9	15	25	37	44	46	5v5
MIN	3	11:12	Clutterbuck	3	29	31	39	61	69	4	5	7	17	22	37	5v5
SJS	3	10:13	Goal - Ferriero	17	22	31	44	64	78	4	5	14	21	34	37	5v5
SJS	3	10:05	Pavelski	8	12	19	22	31	44	3	9	15	25	37	55	5v5
MIN	3	9:45	Heatley	8	12	19	22	31	44	9	15	25	37	44	46	5v5
SJS	3	6:57	Pavelski	8	12	19	22	31	44	3	9	15	25	37	55	5v5
MIN	3	6:20	Goal - Cullen	29	31	39	44	61	69	4	5	7	17	22	37	5v5
SJS	3	3:07	Couture	8	22	31	39	69	88	5	9	25	34	37	44	5v5
SJS	3	3:06	Goal - Couture	8	22	31	39	69	88	5	9	25	34	37	44	5v5
SJS	3	2:44	Goal - Marleau	8	12	19	22	31	88	9	15	25	37	44	46	5v5
SJS	3	1:51	Thornton	22	29	31	39	69	88	4	5	14	21	25	37	5v5
SJS	3	1:10	Pavelski	8	12	19	31	44	88	9	15	22	37	44	46	5v5
SJS	4	4:42	Thornton	12	19	22	31	44		9	15	37	44	46		4v4
SJS	4	3:41	Marleau	12	19	22	31	44		4	5	9	22	37		4v4

#	Player	EV			PP			SH
3	D. MURRAY	15:35	1	3	0:00	0	0	3:05	0	3
8	J. PAVELSKI	18:13	9	4	1:29	0	0	2:46	0	2
10	B. WINCHESTER	6:11	0	1	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
12	P. MARLEAU	16:54	9	3	1:29	0	0	2:53	0	2
17	T. MITCHELL	11:32	2	4	0:00	0	0	0:24	0	0
19	J. THORNTON	19:05	11	4	1:29	0	0	0:42	0	1
22	D. BOYLE	24:04	14	6	1:04	0	0	2:55	0	2
26	M. HANDZUS	9:58	2	5	1:51	1	0	1:33	0	3
29	R. CLOWE	15:55	2	6	1:51	1	0	0:10	0	0
31	A. NIEMI	54:56	17	14	3:20	1	0	6:00	0	5
39	L. COUTURE	15:46	5	5	1:51	1	0	1:38	0	0
44	M. VLASIC	22:35	10	7	0:10	0	0	2:11	0	2
57	T. WINGELS	6:59	1	2	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
60	J. DEMERS	16:10	2	4	2:16	1	0	0:00	0	0
61	J. BRAUN	12:19	0	5	0:47	1	0	0:47	0	0
64	J. MCGINN	13:06	1	3	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
69	A. DESJARDINS	11:54	4	2	0:00	0	0	1:54	0	2
78	B. FERRIERO	12:08	1	3	0:00	0	0	0:00	0	0
88	B. BURNS	19:16	7	3	2:23	0	0	3:02	0	3

Head-to-head scoring chances:

Minnesota's second line went to town on Logan Couture's line who were matched up against each other for a little over 60% of their even-strength shifts. Presumably, this was the primary impetus for Todd McLellan to throw every line but the first into the blender by the middle of the second period. Andrew Desjardins skated several shifts with Logan Couture and Ryane Clowe while Michal Handzus was bumped down to the de facto fourth line and Jamie McGinn, Torrey Mitchell and Benn Ferriero joined forces to create the Sharks' third goal. All three members of the third line that started the game for San Jose had rough outings on the whole, failing to win any of their head-to-head matchups that weren't against the Wild's fourth line.

On the positive side, the top line took over the game in the third period. A lot of that, as I alluded to earlier, was score effects with Minnesota collapsing into a defensive shell after securing their first two-goal lead of the night but Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Joe Pavelski were among the lone bright spots for the Sharks through two periods as well.

More stats from the game: Corsi/Fenwick, Shift Charts, H2H Ice Time, Zonestarts, Play-By-Play, Box Score

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Comments

That top line is playing their ass off right now, both by eye and in the chances. Marleau has been especially dangerous (although I guess that started earlier in the year around the time he got moved down to the second line).

Great stuff again Derek.

"The world is a comedy to those that think; a tragedy to those that feel." - Horace Walpole
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by Mr. Plank on Jan 11, 2012 9:13 AM PST reply actions

Very True, Our top line was by far the best line.

They seemed to be turbo charged while the second line and Handzus, seemed to be lethargic!!

by Tiberon07 on Jan 11, 2012 10:50 AM PST up reply actions

This is the sharks team everyone was expecting at the beginning of the year.

by SnarkSD on Jan 11, 2012 10:57 AM PST reply actions

Couture’s line seems to be in a little bit of a slump, they haven’t been plus since the Anaheim game. Clowe in particular is struggling, he has been a minus since the Vancouver game.

Despite Ferriero scoring, it does not appear he is holding his own in the scoring chance department when slotted in the top 6. It is a temporary issue, as Havlat will come back and take that spot, but Ferriero is looking to me like a Kyle Wellwood-like tweener who is not quite a top 6 forward but doesn’t play the game coaches expect out of the bottom 6.

Handzus with less than 10 min of ES ice time? Most chances against per minute shorthanded? I am still of the opinion that this team would be better with Wellwood on the 3rd line, but we have Handzus so I certainly hope he turns around his game.

Joe Thornton: Still elite player

by ruben398 on Jan 11, 2012 1:24 PM PST reply actions

I agree with you wholeheartedly that the Sharks would be better off with Wellwood than Handzus in that slot, not to mention they would have an additional $1.8mil in cap space to spend.

by The Neutral on Jan 11, 2012 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Handzus has more size & is better defensively. Everyone knows that Wellwood would not be getting anywhere near as much ice-time here as he’s getting in Winnipeg, right?

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by ievans on Jan 11, 2012 3:36 PM PST up reply actions

Handzus has been moderately effective on the PK but he hasn’t really been used in a defensive role at even-strength. Since McLellan likes to go power vs power when line matching, the third line needs guys who can drive the play and outscore opposition in soft minutes more than it needs a defensive forward like Handzus. You’re absolutely right that Wellwood would not have the same level of production or ice time here that he’s had and received with the Jets but he’s historically been better at providing what the Sharks need from their third line in order for it to be effective than Handzus.

by The Neutral on Jan 11, 2012 3:48 PM PST up reply actions

I agree that the 3rd line needs to be better at puck possession and production than what they’ve shown so far…but I’m of the opinion that they need to upgrade Mitchell to a better two way player.

I’m not saying it’s all on Mitchell or that he’s dragging Handzus down as Zus has struggled a bit more at ES than I thought he would, but I think a better two way player on his other wing will make a pretty big difference.

by milanahalek on Jan 11, 2012 4:26 PM PST up reply actions