That Was Ugly: How the SJS Play Against Top Talent

by SnarkSD on Jan 16, 2012 11:24 AM PST

After the implosion which was last night's game I had this creeping feeling that all veteran sharks fans feel between now and April. Are we just a good regular season team? I don't mean to start chicken little rhetoric and there is no definitive answer, but lets look at what the numbers are saying...

Opponents	GP	Fen%	G%	P%	GP	Road Fen%	Road G%	Road P%	GP	Home Fen%	Home G%	Home P%
Top 5	8	0.464	0.543	0.563	3	0.463	0.556	0.500	5	0.465	0.536	0.600
Top 10	16	0.489	0.559	0.625	7	0.495	0.514	0.257	9	0.485	0.594	0.297
Middle 10	12	0.537	0.571	0.708	5	0.465	0.597	0.700	7	0.588	0.552	0.714
Bottom 10	14	0.567	0.585	0.643	6	0.538	0.641	0.750	8	0.589	0.543	0.563
Bottom 5	9	0.582	0.479	0.444	4	0.556	0.545	0.625	5	0.603	0.427	0.300

**GP=Games Played, Fen%=(Goals For+Shots For+Misses For)/((Goals For+Shots For+Misses For)+(Goals Against+Shots Against+Misses Against),

G%=Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against), P%=Total Points/ Total Points Possible

I broke down SJS' season thus far by opponents ranked by FRC (Road Fenwick% close), which is (thus far) the best predictor we have of future success. Top 5 being the the top 5 teams in FRC, Top 10 being the top 10 teams in FRC, and so on. I used home/road splits for shits and giggles (the sample sizes are pretty small, but hey wtf).

After last nights whipping I wanted to look at how SJS was doing against top 10 and really top 5 teams. If SJ wants a deep playoff run, they better start bringing more. On the surface one may conclude that SJ has done fairly well against top talent, accruing 9 points over 8 games. But a deeper statistical look into those games suggest the contrary. SJ has a very league average 0.464 Fen% against those teams. Ie. their just not getting it done. Of course we can say, "but Neimi is playing great and the sharks are putting it in the net when it counts!" That's much like saying they are getting good goal-tending, and timely scoring. Which you may have heard is the key to playoff success, but if your a advanced stat gnome like myself, it's never a good thing. In fact the whole year SJ has sustained an above average PDO, which may or ~~may not~~ probably isn't sustainable.

After waxing about this, I unfortunately have no clue what the solution is. But I assure you DW and TMac are looking at the same thing.

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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Comments

Great stuff again SnarkSD. I was wondering something similar myself after reviewing just how poorly the Sharks have done against the Blackhawks in three games this season in terms of scoring chances and Corsi. One question – is the initial Fen% row close-score Fenwick or score-tied Fenwick?

by The Neutral on Jan 16, 2012 11:45 AM PST reply actions

I'm sad now

by Briceratops on Jan 16, 2012 12:06 PM PST reply actions

To add some additional context

I went through and pulled even-strength scoring chance numbers from games against specific tiers of teams. For consistency, I used close-score Road Fenwick to rank them as well. Very close to the same results as above with the exception that the Sharks obliterate the middle 10 teams based on scoring chances but are only slightly in the black by Fenwick; a lot of that is due to two dominant performances against Phoenix by the chances.

Top 5
ES SCF: 98
ES SCA: 109
0.473

Top 10
ES SCF: 192
ES SCA: 194
0.497

Middle 10
ES SCF: 158
ES SCA: 119
0.570

Bottom 10
ES SCF: 181
ES SCA: 137
0.569

Bottom 5
ES SCF: 134
ES SCA: 99
0.575

by The Neutral on Jan 16, 2012 12:13 PM PST reply actions

Awesome

I used EV Fen% without score restrictions to increase TOI enough to what I though would be useful. Although FRC would be better, I’m not sure the sharks have enough TOI/G to warrant the analysis.

by SnarkSD on Jan 16, 2012 12:16 PM PST up reply actions

And, of course it's no surprise that fenwick% and scoring chances are highly correlated

by SnarkSD on Jan 16, 2012 12:46 PM PST up reply actions

9 pts in 8 games isn't that good lol

we should be winning consistently against top teams…

Against Vancouver? We barely won 1 in SO and lost 2…
Against Chicago? Barely won once when Nemo stood on his head (1-0 shutout) and lost 2…
We’ve been pretty good vs. LA and Detroit, and St. Louis/Nashville were alright as well.

We don’t match up well against Vancouver/Chicago imo, so we have to really step up it up against those 2 teams if we meet them in the playoffs.

Go Sharks.

Go Sharks!

by Dmitriy on Jan 16, 2012 12:54 PM PST reply actions

St Louis has handed us our ass this season.

Out of the four other teams with positve goal differentials in the West, we have only held our own against Detroit. All of this is a small sample size of course but it has not been encouraging.

by Briceratops on Jan 16, 2012 1:02 PM PST up reply actions

Even worse lol

Go Sharks!

by Dmitriy on Jan 16, 2012 10:18 PM PST up reply actions

So I dont have the exact numbers in front of me but,

league average P% is 0.554. Thus a P% of 0.563 would suggest that amongst the Top 5 teams, we are winning more than losing. However, as I pointed out in the article, this isn’t reflecting how well SJ have played these teams, where (according to fen%) we are more or less league average, or ie. mostly losing the battle.

I should also point out that being a fan, of course I believe that can completely turn this around!

by SnarkSD on Jan 16, 2012 1:47 PM PST up reply actions

this should be taken with a grain of salt at least in regards to chicago as both games we have played in chicago have come on night 2’s of back to back’s.

by dannyschmanny on Jan 17, 2012 12:23 PM PST reply actions

also what does it say that in the first game in chicago on the back end of a back to back we ran rough shot on them for 40 minutes until we ran out of gas and last night they were in control basically the whole night but basically got lucky on a few desperation blocks by d and crawford to keep us from tying it? Nothing to worry about right now.

by dannyschmanny on Jan 17, 2012 12:25 PM PST reply actions

I think the B2B point is valid, but

last night they were in control basically the whole night but basically got lucky on a few desperation blocks by d and crawford to keep us from tying it?

reminds me of the WJC final, Russia almost winning in the final minute after Sweden completely outplayed them. Last thing you want to do is have another team dominate you in terms of possession, whether they generate chances or not, because the good teams will generate chances and you won’t be able to yourself because you don’t have the puck.

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I believe in next year.

by red army line on Jan 18, 2012 9:06 AM PST up reply actions

Chicago out chanced us big time that game.

by Briceratops on Jan 18, 2012 10:28 PM PST up reply actions

It’s been said above, but yeah, both the most recent Chicago games were B2Bs, and the Sharks are out 2 of their top 6 forwards, so the Ottawa game didn’t really phase me. Once they get everybody back, they’ll be fine.

by JBarrow on Jan 22, 2012 10:07 PM PST reply actions