Weekly Playoff Probabilities: With Bonus Fenwick Analysis!

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 27: A general view of The Stanley Cup during the NHL Fan Fair at the Ottawa Convention Centre on January 27, 2012 in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Happy Pigskin day everybody! I should mention that as you read this post, Soloact has a great complimentary post with running magic and tragic numbers that's worth reading as well.

We're looking at the playoff picture based on score adjusted Fenwick% again this week (with a minor correction). I also wanted to pick up on something I had posted earlier in the year when we looked at how SJ has compared to the elite teams in the west. This time I added a team by team comparison, as well as plotting expected fenwick% to see which teams SJ has performed well against. Tables and charts after the jump.


Western Predicted Final Standings

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Mean Points Mean Wins Mean Ties Mean Losses Change in PP
1 Detroit Red Wings 56.11 100.0% 111.00 52.80 5.40 23.80 0.0%
2 Vancouver Canucks 52.19 99.8% 105.79 48.56 8.67 24.77 0.7%
3 San Jose Sharks 53.08 99.1% 103.64 46.87 9.90 25.23 1.2%
4 St. Louis Blues 55.01 99.9% 107.39 48.34 10.72 22.95 0.1%
5 Chicago Blackhawks 52.86 97.0% 100.06 44.76 10.54 26.70 -1.3%
6 Nashville Predators 46.41 81.8% 95.15 43.85 7.45 30.70 7.0%
7 Los Angeles Kings 51.00 75.1% 93.71 40.08 13.56 28.36 -3.2%
8 Dallas Stars 49.68 52.0% 90.41 42.30 5.80 33.89 3.3%
9 Colorado Avalanche 50.61 29.2% 87.56 40.56 6.45 34.99 -12.8%
10 Phoenix Coyotes 49.26 25.1% 86.61 37.46 11.68 32.86 1.5%
11 Minnesota Wild 44.94 19.4% 86.10 37.25 11.60 33.15 0.0%
12 Calgary Flames 47.84 19.0% 85.64 37.98 9.68 34.34 2.4%
13 Edmonton Oilers 48.05 1.8% 78.65 34.98 8.69 38.33 1.3%
14 Anaheim Ducks 46.83 0.7% 76.85 32.54 11.77 37.69 -0.2%
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 48.58 0.0% 65.10 27.72 9.65 44.62 0.0%


Eastern Predicted Final Standings

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Mean Points Mean Wins Mean Ties Mean Losses Change in PP
1 Boston Bruins 52.42 99.6% 105.35 49.72 5.91 26.37 -0.24%
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 54.73 99.1% 103.07 47.73 7.61 26.66 0.02%
3 Florida Panthers 49.01 74.0% 93.55 39.37 14.81 27.82 6.28%
4 New York Rangers 48.21 98.9% 103.42 47.18 9.06 25.76 0.40%
5 Philadelphia Flyers 51.56 98.4% 102.11 46.15 9.82 26.04 -0.04%
6 New Jersey Devils 49.98 83.3% 95.42 44.30 6.83 30.88 12.56%
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 48.76 65.7% 92.38 41.34 9.70 30.96 12.76%
8 Ottawa Senators 49.98 56.7% 91.29 40.48 10.34 31.18 -16.78%
9 Washington Capitals 48.08 54.7% 90.77 41.49 7.80 32.71 -8.26%
10 Winnipeg Jets 50.50 31.9% 87.58 39.01 9.56 33.43 -3.30%
11 Tampa Bay Lightning 48.57 14.0% 84.22 37.71 8.81 35.48 5.04%
12 New York Islanders 49.39 12.5% 83.87 36.02 11.82 34.15 2.76%
13 Buffalo Sabres 48.06 4.8% 81.51 35.91 9.68 36.41 1.48%
14 Montreal Canadiens 49.63 4.8% 81.18 34.24 12.71 35.06 -12.32%
15 Carolina Hurricanes 47.92 1.7% 79.05 33.30 12.44 36.26 -0.36%

Tables again sortable, click on the column headers to sort. Full explanation of the model here. Full spreadsheet here

This time I included the last column which shows the change in playoff probability from last week. The biggest gains in the west are NSH and DAL increasing the playoff probability by 7.0% and 3.3% this week respectively, while COL dropped a remarkable 12.8%. The east is looking to be a much tighter race, with TOR (12.76%) and NJ (12.56%) gaining the most ground, while WSH (-8.26%), MTL (-12.32%), and OTT (-16.78%) collapsing since last week.

The race for the Atlantic division crown is the most competitive divisional race this year with 3 teams locked up in battle. PIT, NYR, and PHI are all but tied, winning the division in 35%, 34%, and 26% of sims respectively. I thought the central would be really competitive down the stretch, but it looks like DET is starting to pull away, winning it in 65% of sims.

the race for the president's trophy is still on, although DET's (42%) dominance lately has them as the front-runner. STL (18%), BOS (10%), and VAN (10%) are still in the mix.

The Sharks are in about the same position they were in at the start of the week, and continue to look like the team to beat in the pacific winning the division in 87% of sims. They also show a slight increase in winning the west (8%) and league (6%).

Sj_mean_pts_histo_2-5-12_medium

I kept track of SJ's points (for 1000 simulated seasons) so I could come up with this histogram. From above we see that SJ had a mean of about 104 points, they're standard deviation was 5.12. Theoretically they're 95% Confidence Interval would be between 95-115 points.

Switching gears, let's look at how SJ has performed this year against sub-sets of competition.


EV Fenwick%

Opponents GP Fen% G% P% GP Road Fen% Road G% Road P% GP Home Fen% Home G% Home P%
Top 5 9 0.458 0.549 0.611 4 0.450 0.567 0.625 5 0.465 0.536 0.600
Top 10 16 0.473 0.588 0.688 8 0.458 0.502 0.251 8 0.489 0.674 0.337
Middle 10 16 0.554 0.572 0.656 5 0.510 0.673 0.800 11 0.574 0.526 0.591
Bottom 10 17 0.575 0.537 0.618 8 0.570 0.531 0.625 9 0.580 0.543 0.611
Bottom 5 11 0.589 0.453 0.500 5 0.587 0.436 0.600 6 0.590 0.467 0.417

A few weeks ago after SJ was pummeled by CHI I took a look at some of the advanced numbers behind SJ's game against top talent. SJ has had some modest improvement over this time. But the numbers are ultimately about the same. This time I also included a team by team comparison, and things begin to look a bit clearer. For starter's the major driving factor behind SJ's low fenwick% against top teams is how badly DET has out shot SJ. A lot of this has to do with score effects. Although I haven't run the numbers, I'l bet when you look at SJ vs. DET in game close situations (within 1 goal through 2 periods, tied in the 3rd) the numbers aren't nearly as off.


Team by Team EV Fenwick% Comparison

Team GP Fen% G% P% OppFenClose Fenexp Fendiff
PHX 2 0.633 0.500 1.00 0.502 0.534 0.099
MIN 3 0.623 0.476 1.00 0.546 0.531 0.092
EDM 2 0.619 0.333 1.50 0.525 0.529 0.090
DAL 3 0.566 0.750 2.00 0.512 0.512 0.053
ANA 4 0.565 0.371 0.50 0.548 0.512 0.053
STL 2 0.555 0.375 0.00 0.442 0.509 0.046
NSH 2 0.554 0.700 1.50 0.548 0.509 0.045
CGY 2 0.547 0.750 2.00 0.522 0.506 0.041
CBJ 3 0.532 0.667 2.00 0.506 0.502 0.031
VAN 4 0.513 0.383 0.75 0.497 0.495 0.018
L.A 3 0.492 0.667 1.33 0.485 0.489 0.003
COL 3 0.447 0.599 1.67 0.485 0.474 -0.027
CHI 3 0.442 0.476 1.00 0.473 0.473 -0.031
DET 2 0.363 0.833 2.00 0.434 0.447 -0.084
Avg 6 0.532 0.563 1.304 0.502 0.502 0.031

I also decided to chart SJ's opponents average fenwick% close against, vs. their actual EV fenwick% to see which teams SJ seemed to be outplaying, or underplaying. Things actually seem pretty consistent. What this chart really brings to the clear is that SJ's toughest competitors this year have been DET, CHI, and (surprisingly) COL, who are having a bit of an unlucky year. While mostly destroying PHX and MIN, again score effects playing a big role here. Maybe with time I'll limit the results to score close situations, which should give us a clearer picture.

Oppfenclose_medium

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