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2011-2012 Running Playoff Probabilities

Running Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/3/12

Disclaimer: This is a prediction of the final standings, and is by no means 100% accurate. I use what I believe to be the most accurate predictor of future success, Score-Adj Fenwick, but this is quite debatable. Take these numbers with a grain of salt, meaning, a probability over 50% indicates a likelihood of making the playoffs, while under 50% suggests the opposite. The model is also constantly going through revisions as I learn more about prediction, a full description of the model can be found here, and analysis of this and different models will come in the off season.

Soloact's phenomenal Running Magic and Tragic numbers can be found here.

What better way to chronicle the end of the season than with playoff predictions. It's going to either be a dramatic collapse never before seen, or a gut wrenching ride to the post-season.

Predicted Western Final Standings

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Mean Points Mean ROWs Mean Ties Mean Losses Change in PP
1 Vancouver Canucks 51.92 100.0% 111.54 43.01 9.25 29.74 0.0%
2 St. Louis Blues 54.12 100.0% 109.62 45.39 10.42 26.19 0.0%
3 Los Angeles Kings 52.79 97.3% 95.25 34.86 13.25 33.89 14.7%
4 Detroit Red Wings 54.81 100.0% 102.55 40.36 5.42 36.22 0.0%
5 Nashville Predators 47.14 100.0% 102.03 41.76 8.24 32.00 0.0%
6 Chicago Blackhawks 52.45 100.0% 100.53 39.06 10.14 32.80 0.0%
7 Phoenix Coyotes 49.08 97.4% 95.31 34.95 13.14 33.91 24.1%
8 San Jose Sharks 52.83 91.2% 94.25 33.86 10.25 37.89 40.3%
9 Dallas Stars 50.14 12.3% 91.21 35.84 5.25 40.91 -74.4%
10 Colorado Avalanche 50.09 1.7% 90.33 32.86 6.35 42.80 -1.2%
11 Calgary Flames 47.71 0.0% 87.95 32.65 16.35 32.99 -3.5%
12 Minnesota Wild 45.16 0.0% 80.74 24.57 11.34 46.09 0.0%
13 Anaheim Ducks 48.90 0.0% 80.43 31.01 12.14 38.86 0.0%
14 Edmonton Oilers 47.89 0.0% 75.07 27.77 9.25 44.98 0.0%
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 47.49 0.0% 63.11 23.79 7.25 50.96 0.0%

Predicted Eastern Final Standings

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Mean Points Mean ROWs Mean Ties Mean Losses Change in PP
1 New York Rangers 49.78 100.0% 111.08 47.78 7.24 26.97 0.00%
2 Boston Bruins 52.85 100.0% 100.46 39.97 4.25 37.79 0.00%
3 Florida Panthers 49.63 98.3% 94.31 31.89 18.25 31.86 1.13%
4 Pittsburgh Penguins 54.64 100.0% 106.44 40.91 6.34 34.74 0.00%
5 Philadelphia Flyers 51.28 100.0% 103.20 42.84 9.25 29.91 0.00%
6 New Jersey Devils 51.18 100.0% 100.12 34.80 6.25 40.95 0.01%
7 Ottawa Senators 50.55 100.0% 94.15 35.81 10.25 35.94 7.29%
8 Washington Capitals 49.41 65.2% 90.22 36.85 8.25 36.90 12.48%
9 Buffalo Sabres 48.97 36.6% 90.13 32.86 10.14 39.00 -20.88%
10 Winnipeg Jets 50.78 0.0% 85.44 33.96 9.25 38.79 -0.03%
11 Tampa Bay Lightning 47.60 0.0% 84.39 35.39 7.21 39.40 0.00%
12 Carolina Hurricanes 48.30 0.0% 82.21 32.84 16.24 32.91 0.00%
13 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.76 0.0% 80.25 30.86 10.24 40.90 0.00%
14 New York Islanders 48.62 0.0% 79.21 26.84 11.25 43.91 0.00%
15 Montreal Canadiens 47.88 0.0% 76.31 25.24 15.42 41.34 0.00%

Last column represents a change in playoff probability from 3/29/12. Full spreadsheet can be found here

Predicted Pacific Division Final Standings

Final Standings Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
1 Los Angeles Kings 0.543 0.251 0.179 0.027 0.000
2 Phoenix Coyotes 0.287 0.558 0.130 0.026 0.000
3 San Jose Sharks 0.170 0.179 0.580 0.071 0.000
4 Dallas Stars 0.000 0.012 0.111 0.877 0.000
5 Anaheim Ducks 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000

Next Game: San Jose Sharks @ Los Angeles Kings

Points San Jose Sharks Los Angeles Kings 3rd seed 7th seed 8th seed
2-0 0.375 0.377 0.311 0.565 1
2-1 0.124 0.124 0.311 0.564 1
1-2 0.124 0.124 0.000 0.138 0.913
0-2 0.377 0.375 0.000 0.086 0.779

First 2 columns represent the probability of winning, OT/SO loss, or a loss for SJ and their opposition. The last 2 columns represent the probability of SJ going to playoffs and winning the division, respectively, given the outcome (ie. points) in the row. For example, if the sharks win in regulation their probability of going to the playoffs is 0.474, a loss in OT/SO is 0.275, and a loss in regulation is 0.182.

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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