FanPost

Food for Thought


Given that this site is more statistically driven than many others I read, I thought I'd throw this idea out there. Assuming two evenly matched teams in a best of seven series, there is a 1 in 8 chance one of the teams will sweep the other team. One team has to win game one, then, the odds of an evenly matched team winning the next three is 1 in 8 (1/2 ^ 3). Obviously, this is done in a vacuum without considering ideas of home ice advantage, or officiating operating on an underlying calculus trying to balance out calls over the course of a series, etc.

Still, the first time I thought about this, it seemed like a remarkably high number to me. The mainstream media is quick to interpret a sweep as one team's show of dominance, and, particularly in the playoffs, one team "choking" or the failure of star players on the losing team. It's something I like to remind myself of every time the Sharks go out in the playoffs. Perhaps it should caution blowing up a historically successful franchise that suffered from a woeful shooting percentage during the regular season, only to go out 4-1 in playoffs ...

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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