Weekly Playoff Probabilities: Week 3

Scott Rovak-US PRESSWIRE

How likely is it that the Sharks make the postseason? We look at the past week's impact on playoff probabilities.

Another critical week has passed. Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 2/9/13, with change in PP indicating change from last week. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.


Western Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP
1 Chicago Blackhawks 52.71 86.6% 6.9%
2 Anaheim Ducks 49.04 73.7% 10.9%
3 Vancouver Canucks 52.41 66.6% 11.6%
4 San Jose Sharks 52.74 63.1% -8.5%
5 Nashville Predators 46.83 66.0% 10.5%
6 Edmonton Oilers 47.36 55.3% 1.1%
7 St. Louis Blues 54.07 52.8% -12.8%
8 Dallas Stars 49.36 50.2% 12.8%
9 Los Angeles Kings 53.82 45.0% -1.7%
10 Minnesota Wild 49.36 43.7% -9.8%
11 Detroit Red Wings 53.52 43.2% -9.4%
12 Calgary Flames 52.34 42.1% 4.6%
13 Phoenix Coyotes 51.26 41.5% 1.6%
14 Colorado Avalanche 49.08 39.1% -10.8%
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 44.79 31.0% -7.1%

(updated 2.10.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)



Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP
1 New Jersey Devils 49.95 73.9% 13.4%
2 Boston Bruins 53.22 72.3% 3.1%
3 Tampa Bay Lightning 48.70 58.4% -7.0%
4 Pittsburgh Penguins 53.19 69.9% 11.7%
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.53 60.3% 7.7%
6 Carolina Hurricanes 49.50 57.5% 10.7%
7 Ottawa Senators 52.95 54.9% -7.4%
8 Montreal Canadiens 50.55 54.0% -6.7%
9 Winnipeg Jets 51.52 49.6% 0.8%
10 New York Rangers 50.95 47.5% 0.1%
11 Buffalo Sabres 47.37 46.6% -2.7%
12 Philadelphia Flyers 50.10 45.3% 4.6%
13 Florida Panthers 46.45 44.5% 5.3%
14 New York Islanders 48.75 43.1% -20.4%
15 Washington Capitals 49.07 22.2% -13.2%

(updated 2.10.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)


The biggest changes this week were in the east, as the Islanders plummeted by 20% to 14th in the East, while the Devils packed on 13 more percentage points. In the west, STL found themselves through a tough stretch, but still are clinging onto a playoff position, while Dallas moved in the opposite direction.

LA again is off to an impressively low Sh%, despite being one of the elite possession teams in the league. Early season excitement has fizzled in LA, but I’m not concerned with their game. Calgary is another interesting team. Historically they’ve been a good possession team. They’re showing that last year may have just been a fluke. They too have been hit by very poor PDO, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them climb the standings in the coming weeks. On the opposite side of the PDO coin are teams like T.B and ANA, whose underlying possession numbers suggest that their current position in the standings isn’t stable.

Speaking about the Sharks specifically, I can’t overstate how important having Burns back is for the Sharks possession game. As we’ve covered extensively, he gives each pairing a puck moving defensemen, which creates a huge difference in game outcomes. My belief is that this is linked to successful navigation of the neutral zone. Having a great quarterback to start your breakout in Boyle and Burns makes entries so much more efficient.

Looking at last years Corsi%, with Burns on the ice at 5v5 the Sharks were at 53.3%, without him 50.9%. That's roughly the difference between a top 5 possession team, and a slightly above league average possession team.

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