FanPost

Response to PDOfrock: Comparing streaks (test case of shots in sets of 7)


Recent Fanpost on compiled shot data from the homestand by PDOfrock led me to think about the idea of comparing compiled shot data. What looks the same and different? Is there value in comparing two sets of "win streaks"? (This is just a test case to see what comes up. A number of sets to compare are available. Feel free to apply elsewhere!)

5v5 close GP goals for goals against saved shots for saved shots against Shots% missed shots for missed shots against Fenwick% S.J Shots that were Blocked blocked shots by SJ Corsi% On Ice EVsave% On Ice EVshooting% PDO
SJS 1-7 7 9 2 70 72 0.516 42 37 0.522 56 50 0.524 0.973 11.40% 1087
SJS 31-37 7 12 4 116 86 0.587 60 43 0.586 60 68 0.552 0.956 9.40% 1050

Yup, it's a table. Numbers from timeonice.com here and here. Games 1-7 and games 31-37.

So, here are the numbers from two win streaks, the first being games 1-7 (remember those? good times) and the second games 31-37 ("the homestand"). A number of things stand out.

1) Most significantly (probably): TON more shots toward the opposing net. Lots more SOGs and Missed Shots. If we see 70 SOGs in 5v5 close play, as we did in games 1-7, I think we should be worried. Note the 6.4% difference in Fenwick% and 2.8% difference in Corsi% in comparing the two sets. Note the Sharks had a -2 SOG differential in games 1-7, though Fenwick% and Corsi% favored them. It's still important (in my view) to look at all the shot statistics.

2) More goals and blocked more shots in 31-37, along with worse SV% and SH% (and PDO; so, probably closer to something we think of as "true" talent level).

Bottom line: first streak characterized by special teams, ridiculous goaltending and shooting%; second streak characterized by an enormous amount of shots. We should fear the first streak and embrace the second as perhaps the "ideal typical" win streak.

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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