2013 Binomial Prediction Model (Based on Fenwick Close)

Entering the playoffs, quite a few words have been written on the topic of Fenwick (more specifically, Fenwick Close), and it's usage as a measurement for playoff success (Click here to read a great article on the subject). Fresh off of finishing the 2012/13 school year, I figured I'd try my hand at making a playoff prediction model based on the Fenwick close statistic (both out of personal interest, and to make all of the good ol' Toronna boys shut their yappers about the greatness of their beloved Leafs).

Anyway, I've attached a couple screenshots of what the model looks like (it's pretty simple really, I used the binomial distribution and respective team Fenwick Close percentages to create probabilities of series ending in the 8 possible ways) and a link to download the document is listed below as well.



(Click images embiggen)

Download link here!

Feel free to play around with it in whatever way you like, but the most user-friendly manner is to just update the YELLOW highlighted cells in the bottom right corner (P38, P39, etc.) to reflect current series scores, the rest of the document will update itself according to whatever numbers are input in the yellow highlighted cells in the P-column.

Also, there may be mistakes in some of the formulas, and if you find any of these, please let me know! There are 2 sheets in the document, the updated sheet is updated with the results through today (May 2) and the original sheet is the pre-playoff model.

All Fenwick numbers courtesy of

If you have any questions/comments about this, post them in the comments below and I'll be happy to answer them.


This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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