FanPost

2013 Binomial Prediction Model (Based on Fenwick Close)

Entering the playoffs, quite a few words have been written on the topic of Fenwick (more specifically, Fenwick Close), and it's usage as a measurement for playoff success (Click here to read a great article on the subject). Fresh off of finishing the 2012/13 school year, I figured I'd try my hand at making a playoff prediction model based on the Fenwick close statistic (both out of personal interest, and to make all of the good ol' Toronna boys shut their yappers about the greatness of their beloved Leafs).


Anyway, I've attached a couple screenshots of what the model looks like (it's pretty simple really, I used the binomial distribution and respective team Fenwick Close percentages to create probabilities of series ending in the 8 possible ways) and a link to download the document is listed below as well.

Screenshot20130502at949_medium

Screenshot20130502at939_medium

(Click images embiggen)

Download link here!

Feel free to play around with it in whatever way you like, but the most user-friendly manner is to just update the YELLOW highlighted cells in the bottom right corner (P38, P39, etc.) to reflect current series scores, the rest of the document will update itself according to whatever numbers are input in the yellow highlighted cells in the P-column.

Also, there may be mistakes in some of the formulas, and if you find any of these, please let me know! There are 2 sheets in the document, the updated sheet is updated with the results through today (May 2) and the original sheet is the pre-playoff model.

All Fenwick numbers courtesy of behindthenet.ca

If you have any questions/comments about this, post them in the comments below and I'll be happy to answer them.

-Gore51

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Fear The Fin

You must be a member of Fear The Fin to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fear The Fin. You should read them.

Join Fear The Fin

You must be a member of Fear The Fin to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Fear The Fin. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker