@ 7:30 PST
50-25-6, 100 points		50-20-11, 111 points
4th in Western Conference		2nd in Western Conference

What a wild ride it has been eh? It seems like only yesterday we were gearing up for yet another grueling 82 game season, licking our chops at the prospect of some glorious hockey after four long months of not knowing what to do with ourselves. From Patrick Marleau's first goal to the 76 minute third period penalty parade against Vancouver last night, we've seen our fair share of ups and downs, peaks and valleys.

And the journey is just beginning.

A wise man once said that the playoffs are an event "that will test the very fiber of our existence" (okay that man was me), and this year is no different. The pressure on this team to make a deep run is enormous, and every single shift Wednesday onward is bigger than life itself. It is by far the best time to be alive.

Alas, I am getting ahead of myself. With Fan Appreciation Night at HP Pavilion tonight, another division title in the bag for San Jose, and playoff seedings yet to be determined, I would like to take some time today to thank you for continuing to frequent our humble corner of the world wide web. You really make this an easy job for me to do, and without that vast support, I can assure you TCY, Ivano, and I wouldn't be where we are today. Our passion for the team has grown thanks to you. Our desire to bring you the best Sharks coverage out there has grown thanks to you. And our hunger for fine wine and finer women...well, that hasn't been changed in any way because of you. But you've accepted us all the same.

To show my gratitude for all that you've given us, here's a song I composed late last night. It's in the same vein as the "I Can Make One Phone Call" track that hit store shelves last summer, and while it's probably not as good (seriously, how freaking great was that song), a parody of Bud Light's Real Men of Genius commercials seemed to fit the zany mood of this site quite well.

I'm obviously out of my vocal range on this one-- oh how it burns indeed. Lyrics can be found here.

Thanks again for everything. I couldn't ask for a better group of people to watch this team with during the next three months.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-1. Goals by Heatley (who gets number 40), Marleau (who could use a goal right now), and Demers (on the power play). San Jose keeps their first seed dreams alive and draws upon that passion from Thursday night all the way into mid-summer.

Go FTF readers, and most importantly, Go Sharks.

	@ 7:30 PST
48-27-5, 101 points		49-20-11, 109 points
3rd in Western Conference		2nd in Western Conference

Watching the games unfold last night, I was put in a situation that made me feel uneasy. 

I was rooting for the Detroit Red WIngs... and damn it all, I'll be rooting for them to win until the regular season comes to a close.

A few things happened last night that cleared up the playoff picture, and more importantly shed some light on which team the Sharks will face in the first round. Although most of us have been pulling our hair out dreading the possible draw of the Winged Wheel, tonight's events make that matchup seem much less likely. No, Chicago didn't lose, even though the Blues mounted one hell of a third period comeback with nothing left to play for but pride. Instead, the Hawks take over the first seed in the West and hold all the tie breakers against San Jose. Unless Chicago loses their last two games, I'm assuming they stay there.

Detroit, however, helped us out. With a win tonight, they jumped back into the fifth seed in the West, and have a game in hand over sixth seeded Nashville. Even though the Predators have the same amount of points as the Wings, Detroit has one more game left to play. That makes Nashville's road to a top six seed even more difficult.

The Predators sit a point ahead of the Kings (who have three left to play), and four points ahead of a Colorado team which has two remaining after losing tonight to Edmonton. (Speaking of the Oilers, they've really held their own as of late, playing much better hockey than they did earlier in the season)

That drawn out explanation of the standings leads us to this: If Detroit picks up one more point and Nashville loses their last match against the Blues on Saturday, there's no chance that the Sharks will face Detroit in the first round. Needless to say, I'll be pulling for St. Louis and Detroit in the coming days. Hell, I'm even hoping LA finds a way to win two out of three. I'd take Nashville or Colorado over any of the other teams in a heartbeat.

That being said, the Sharks shouldn't spend tonight or Saturday scoreboard watching. Yes, it's ok to rest Dan Boyle a bit. Yes, Greiss should maybe get a look in the next two games. However, taking it easy on the opposition should remain out of the question for a San Jose team that has had difficulty establishing momentum post-Olympics. 

If they end up with the two seed, it's probably not the end of the world (as explained above). However, every Sharks skater should be working for that one seed. It's not a necessary goal to achieve, but damn it would be nice to see.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-1. Goals by Couture (x2) and Thornton. Joe is extra careful around the boards.

Go Sharks.

	@ 6:30 PST
48-20-10, 107 points		40-30-9, 89 points
1st in Western Conference		9th in Western Conference

So maybe San Jose can end Calgary's tonight.

The Flames are currently two points out of the eight seed with three games left to play, chasing Colorado who has a game in hand. Furthermore, Daymond Langkow is out after being hit with a puck in the back of the neck two weeks ago against the Minnesota Wild, Chris Higgins is nursing a foot injury, and Curtis Glencross is unlikely to play as well. By my count those are three really big pieces to the Calgary penalty kill, which means San Jose's power play should be dealing with some favorable conditions to start putting pucks in the net with the man advantage.

I like the idea of playing the Flames right now. At face value it's a good test for the team as the playoffs approach; all of the "desperate team playing desperate hockey" lines will be in full force, especially against a Calgary team teetering on the brink of elimination. The atmosphere in the building always feels like a playoff game, the faithful always come out in those brilliant red sweaters, and the Flames always love to chip the puck in and try to bang the Sharks around.

Honestly, I think games against Calgary might be my favorite road games every year. Something thrilling about the Saddledome.

Prediction: Sharks win 5-2. Goals by the big guns.

Go Sharks.

	@ 5:00 PST
48-20-10, 106 points		41-29-7, 89 points
1st in Western Conference		8th in Western Conference

Where I went to college Stephen Covey was once a professor, and his book about the Seven Habits was an obligatory reading in three of my business classes. Covey himself lived just down the road and although he's a big football fan, we'll pretend for a moment that he cares about hockey. Despite apparently being a Minnesota Wild fan, in my imaginary world he was kind enough to share his thoughts on the upcoming Sharks game tonight in Denver.* He would be all over this game. 

* On some nights, I still dream about being back in college and reading his annoying book for yet another class - it is one of the worst nightmares of my existence. 

Dear Sharks fans:  

Continue reading this post »

	@ 5:00 PST
47-20-10, 104 points		37-34-6, 80 points
1st in Western Conference		13th in Western Conference

After the Sharks lifeless performance against Dallas on Wednesday, the unpleasant feelings from two weeks ago began to crop up-- will the Sharks be able to flip a switch come the postseason? Or is this current inconsistency highlighting underlying issues within this club, intangible levels of "insert your favorite malady here"?

"Heart" always seems to be a crowd pleaser. Same goes for "grit", and the timeless "will to win."

Those questions won't be answered until two weeks from now when San Jose embarks on what seems like the fifteenth opportunity to elbow the monkey off their back and pin it to the floor. What will occur in the postseason remains, and will forever remain, an unknown until the National Anthem echoes amongst the rafters of HP Pavilion on April 14th.

However, maybe past results can guide us in assessing what to look for now, as well as what to expect going forward when attempting to put a potential first round matchup into some historical context.

What follows is a breakdown of how often a team wins their first round matchup, divided into various categories. HOME indicates home ice advantage, PTS indicates superior points during the regular season (3v6 seeds sometimes run into a situation where the 3 seed will win their division but have less points than the 6 seed) H2H indicates who won the season series, 10GMS indicates the team with a better record during the final ten games of the regular season, and 20GMS indicates the team with a better record during the final twenty games of the regular season.

All statistics are post-lockout. As always, shootout results are tossed out of the sample. Furthermore, if both teams are tied in a category (95 points, 2-2 head to head record during the regular season) the results from that series are tossed out as well.

I'd like to caution against reading too much into the Eastern Conference totals-- it's a vastly different group of teams compared to the West, filled with a couple juggernauts who tend to beat up on the remaining minnows. The West is definitely the deeper of the two Conferences, and has been for years.

Looking at the Western Conference, the only category that really jumps out at me as being interesting is a team's record in the last twenty games of the season. It pays to get hot at the right time and sustain that performance, which makes sense intuitively. It also serves our purposes quite well right now considering the majority of NHL clubs will have played close to twenty games after the Olympic Break-- San Jose comes in at that exact number, coincidentally.

Continue reading this post »

	@ 5:30 PST
47-19-10, 104 points		33-29-14, 80 points
1st in Western Conference		13th in Western Conference

The seventies were a great time for rock n' roll, and unfortunately, I missed it. Lynyrd Skynyrd, Grand Funk Railroad, Led Zepellin, Steve Miller Band, Eric Clapton, Queen, SRV, Fall Out Boy…the list of these great bands goes on and on. The golden age of electric guitar.

I may never let my parents live down the fact that they consumated their love in the 1980's, and if the organization doesn't separate itself from the idea that Brad Staubitz is a player that will bring results to the table two weeks from now, I may never let them live it down either.

Which brings us to the subject of Jason Demers. Demers has played 46 games with the big club this season despite bouncing back and forth from the Sharks minor league affiliate on the ever-famous Worcester Shutle. A riverboat gambler prone to some lapses in the defensive zone, he sees the easiest competition at evens outside of Jay Leach, and for all intents and purposes, is probably one the least defensively sound blueliners on the current roster. He's a young Dan Boyle without the experience, and although the hope is that he will develop into someone who can play a couple shifts on the penalty kill, that is not going to be asked of him right now.

And yet, despite these minor faults, Demers is a player that has proved to be a worthwhile addition to this club.

Continue reading this post »

	@ 5:00 PST
41-26-7, 89 points		46-19-10, 100 points
8th in Western Conference		1st in Western Conference

[Update]: Thornton won't play tonight, and he's listed day to day with a lower body injury. Blake will also be out on a "maintenance day", but Demers has been called up and will play. Also, expect McGinn to lace um up after missing a game. The always sexy Thomas Griess will be in nets.

We all saw the injury. We all felt the pain, the disgust, the utter and unescapable despair. Jumbo Joe, crumpled on the ice. A shell of the player he once was. Will he ever play again? I SAY TO YOU GOOD SIR... WILL THE MAN EVER PLAY ANOTHER GAME IN HIS CAREER?!?! 

Turns out, he might play tonight.

Plank and TCY were at the game last night, and were speechless after hearing Joe crunch into the boards 200 feet away. Our dropped jaws had to be extracted off the ketchup stained floor in front of us. But once we watched the replay (admittedly, it was a rough crash), our "Joe's career might be over" hyperbole was diminished. Coupled with the quotes from Todd McLellan and the rest of the players made, the injury seemed less severe than we had initially thought.

We did, however, feel worried enough to examine the state of the Sharks lineup sans-Joe Thornton.

As far as we can see, there are three possible situations: Joe comes back to play before the regular season ends, he comes back to start/during the playoffs, or he's done for the year. 

No matter what the case, we're of the idea that Brad Staubitz mosey his way back to the press box (he's very familiar with boxes so he should be fine in that regard) and Jason Demers find himself entrenched as the six/seven defenseman. If the fourth line is getting a mere four minutes a night anyways, we're all for rolling with eleven forwards and seven defenseman, with Demers running the point on the power play and alleviating some of the pressure on Dan Boyle.

For all of those who try to defend Mr. Staubitz, we'd like to point out he leads the team in penalties drawn per sixty minutes; his 3.4 is triple that of Rob Blake, who draws criticism more often than he draws obstruction penalties. Staubitz's differential between penalties drawn and taken is 2.7, also the most on the team. We like Frazier McLaren in almost every regard, but having Demers on the point on the power play is too good to pass up, especially if Joe is out. We need the offense. Demers also has the benefit of time spent with the team compared to McLaren, playing 45 games with the squad during the season. We'll have more on the Sharks power play and the need to send Staubitz to Mytus VII in the coming days, but it's a point we had to make in order for the following line machinations to make sense.

Let's start with the worst case. If Joe's out to for the season, here's how we think the lines should shake out.

Clowe - Pavelski - Marleau

Heatley - Couture - Setoguchi

McGinn - Malhotra - Mitchell

Nichol - Ortmeyer

Continue reading this post »

	@ 7:30 PST
45-25-4, 94 points		45-19-10, 98 points
3rd in Western Conference		1st in Western Conference

The San Jose Sharks have made great strides during these last two games-- it has been night and day from where they stood last weekend, and the way things have gone, there is only the greatest hope that things continue to hold course.

However, I carry tempered enthusiasm with me tonight. The elation of the first win against Minnesota has passed, and although defeats of the Dallas Stars never truly leave you, there is a realization here that both of these teams are non-playoff opponents. Vancouver and Colorado* pose entirely different tests for San Jose.

*With Colorado obviously being the weaker link of the two, and my preferred first round opponent if granted the privilege of selecting from the current pool of eight.

These are big game. 120 minutes of consistent execution is nice, but doing that for a third and fourth straight game against Western Conference playoff teams is a much different story.

As mentioned before, I think starting Thomas Greiss tonight would be the route I pursue. Vancouver is far less likely to face San Jose in the first round when compared to Colorado, and this allows you to give Greiss some time against an elite opponent as well. Nabokov has to sit for at least one game and tonight seems like the logical choice to me. Therefore, it will not happen.

Lots of talk around town of Rob Blake's exploits in front of the net the last two games, and rightfully so. The old man looks like a kid out there again, and it's probably a good thing to look for on the powerplay considering no one outside of Pavelski seems to find themselves there with any consistency. You lose a big shot (that has lost a bit of it's heat-seeking missile comparisons since this time last year), but gain another one provided Manny, Marleau, or Pavelski pop up to fill the gap. I like that set up with Boyle on the ice (big fan of lefty-righty one-timer dynamic at the point on the PP), and both dudes have bombs. Malhotra has such a heavy shot that produces rebounds at a consistent rate, and Marleau/Pavelski are familiar with playing on the blueline with the man advantage. Not a bad idea provided it gets Blake engaged and doesn't end up in a situation where he is trying to turn into Jason Demers out here.

Speaking of which, Demers will be finding his way up for the stretch run according to WTC. Dude's a killer when he's out on the power play, and although I find it hard to overlook some of his egregious turnovers in the defensive zone (especially for a team who has just managed to start turning that aspect of their game around) if we're looking at him replacing someone in the top six, I say eff it.

If Nichol is still injured, scratch Staubitz, roll seven defenseman, rotate double shifting Patty/Thornton/Couture with McGinn/Ortmeyer, and give Demers easy situations at evens and loads of ice time when a man up. If McLellan is going to play Orts four freaking minutes a night, you can probably do the same thing when Nichol comes back if you scratch both Staubitz and Ortmeyer.

I'll have more on this Monday, but I'll be damned if it isn't the best idea in the world and if you think otherwise then you're just pissed you didn't come up with it first.

Prediction: Sharks win 4-3. Tight game all the way through with Gooch getting the winner in OT.

Go Sharks.