@ 7:30 PST
40-27-14, 94 points		42-29-10, 94 points
7th in Western Conference		8th in Western Conference

Here are the playoff scenarios heading into tonight's action:

• If Phoenix earns a single point the Sharks will play either Vancouver or St. Louis.
• If Phoenix loses in regulation and the Sharks lose they will play either Vancouver or St. Louis.
• If Phoenix loses in regulation and the Sharks win they will play either Chicago or Detroit.

San Jose will know by the time the puck drops if they can win the Pacific Division as Phoenix plays Minnesota at 5:00 PM tonight.

Maybe it's a case of still recovering from Thursday's wild game, seeing every news media outlet in North America cover the Ryane Clowe story, or the fact that San Jose has already clinched a playoff spot and might not control their own Pacific Division title fate depending on how Phoenix's game goes, but tonight feels like a warmup (albeit one you're doing as a dead sprint) at this point.

Obviously it's a huge game and both teams will probably come out with just as much intensity as they had on Thursday (especially if the Coyotes lose). And I don't think you can downplay the importance of finishing the season strong, especially against a Los Angeles Kings team that has frankly handed them their lunch during the last two games in just about every aspect of the game besides the scoreboard.

But with playoff opponents just hours away from being official, and our gameday from Thursday morning laying out things that are still relevant about the clubs, it's hard to think about anything other than the playoffs.

So let's talk about that:

• Who do you think the Sharks will end up playing in the first round? I have a feeling it's going to be Vancouver but that's based off nothing but sheer gut instinct.
• Who do you think the Sharks would have the most difficulty with in the first round? From most difficult to least difficult-- St. Louis, Vancouver, Chicago, and then Detroit. Swap Chicago with Vancouver if Toews is healthy and Sedin is not.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-1. Goals by Pavelski, Galiardi, and Boyle.

	@ 7:30 PST
41-29-10, 92 points		40-27-13, 93 points
8th in Western Conference		3rd in Western Conference

Tonight is going to be a doozy.

Sure the Sharks can clinch a playoff spot with a Dallas and Colorado regulation loss, two points in their next two games, or any number of scenarios that we laid out yesterday. They're looking good for a playoff spot right now, and that comes directly because they came up huge against the Dallas Stars in two consecutive games. San Jose had struggled down the stretch in games they needed to win, but those two victories against Dallas flipped the script in a big way.

But just when you thought things might get a little less hectic here comes the Los Angeles Kings. A team that, much like San Jose, is better than their record. A team that, much like San Jose, has high hopes of going deep this season. And a team that, much like San Jose, is still in the running for the Pacific Division title and the first round home-ice advantage that comes along with it.

So yeah, things really aren't any easier. They've just gotten a little more clearer in the midst of what has been an insane playoff run.

The Sharks have gone 2-2-0 against the Kings this season, with one of those wins taking 65 minutes and a skills competition to decide. The last time they met things weren't very good for San Jose-- in one of their most disheartening performances of the season, they were buried in the scoring chance count (9-16 at evens, 11-23 overall) and struggled to get any consistent opportunities throughout the entire game. Some of that has to do with the fact that San Jose was on the tail end of a back to back, but I think the biggest factor in that has to do with the fact that the Kings are a damn good team at even strength.

As we've mentioned throughout the second half of this season, San Jose has continued to do the things that make hockey teams successful. A month ago on March 6th we looked at their possession numbers during two slices of the season-- from October 8 to January 14 where they went 25-11-5, and from January 15 to March 6 where they went 8-13-2-- and came to the conclusion that, well wouldn't you know it, the Sharks were actually controlling possession at nearly the exact same rates. The only difference was a depressed (and depressing) shooting and save percentage:

To put it in simplest terms possible, the San Jose Sharks are performing at roughly the same level as they were at the beginning of the season when it comes to possession. They are outshooting, putting more pressure, and spending more time in the offensive zone than their opposition. These are good things to see compared to a situation where they fall off the map by these metrics, and indicate that this team still knows how to play a game they've worked oh so hard to convince us they forgot.

>> "Anatomy of a Losing Streak"

The thing is, Los Angeles is in almost the exact same boat. On March 3rd the Kings were dead last in overall shooting percentage, shooting a woeful 6.9% from the field. This clashed with both League averages as well as their historical numbers:

11-12 League Average: 8.9% Los Angeles: 6.9%
10-11 League Average: 8.9% Los Angeles: 8.8%
09-10 League Average: 9.1% Los Angeles: 9.6%
08-09 League Average: 9.4% Los Angeles: 9.2%

>> LA Kings shooting percentage on March 3, 2012

As we've seen throughout the course of NHL history, shooting percentage (either very high or very low) is generally an unsustainable feat. It shows us little other than which teams are getting the breaks and which teams are not getting the breaks. To put it more succinctly, as the great Todd McLellan once said, "shooting percentage is a shitty stat."

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	@ 5:30 PST
40-29-10, 90 points		42-32-5, 89 points
8th in Western Conference		9th in Western Conference

Your obligatory Pacific Division contender standings heading into today:

To review-- three of these four teams will make the postseason. Colorado still has a chance if two of these teams lose out, but it looks pretty unlikely that they'll be able to get that many breaks down the stretch.

Now on to tonight's game.

San Jose has a chance to put themselves in really good position tonight if they can beat the Stars in regulation. A three point game either way would muddy the waters, but a regulation win would put the Sharks up by three points over Dallas with two games left for both teams. That's a huge lead at this time of year and means that they'd have to either acquire two points in their final two games or see Dallas lose out two points to come clinch a playoff berth.

The Stars play the Preds and Blues in their final two games, which is no easy road. Although both those teams have already qualified for the postseason, they're in a battle for home-ice advantage and the number one seed in the Western Conference respectively. In other words, they're still playing for something right now and won't be coasting into the playoffs just trying to stay healthy.

Obviously a regulation loss would flip the script for San Jose, making those final two games against Los Angeles a dire situation. It all depends on how other teams do of course, but if the Sharks end up going 2-1 in these next three games, beating Dallas tonight and dropping one to Los Angeles is definitely the best way to do it.

As an aside, I'm actually really enjoying this playoff race. Sure it's not where San Jose wants to be and doesn't allow McLellan to manage ice time and sit players who are playing with injuries, but it's a helluva ride we haven't experienced for awhile. Grabbing the Pacific Division title still needs to be the priority as a first round matchup against St. Louis or Vancouver presents all types of difficulties, but if San Jose can crack the postseason I think they've got as good of a shot as anybody not named St. Louis to get to the Western Conference Finals.

It all centers around tonight however, and I think it's an easy bet to say that Dallas will be much better than they were on Saturday in San Jose. The Stars were on the tail end of a back to back this weekend and got into their San Jose hotel room at 3 AM from Vancouver-- there's no excuses this time of year of course, but with two days rest and the looming spector of the Grim Reaper about to rip a postseason appearance in the final games from their hands for the second straight year, I think it's reasonable to expect the Stars to come out with a helluva more jump than they did two days ago.

For San Jose, continuing where they left off on Saturday will obviously be the priority. That was one of their better games in the last two months in terms of overall dominance in all aspects of the game, and their 4-0-1 record against Dallas this season (to go along with their 20-8 goal differential sans shootout goals) provides a level of comfort that feels strange in a game this big.

But as San Jose has shown lately, flashes of brilliance are often sandwiched in between disappointing results. Over the last eight games, or right about when San Jose started to climb out of two months of dormancy, the Sharks have gone 4-4-0 and dropped important games to Anaheim (x2), Phoenix, and Los Angeles. While those games may become mere blips on their radar if the Sharks get into the postseason, the lack of wins in important games are a trend that must be squelched tonight.

No better team to do it against than Dallas.

Prediction: Sharks win 3-1. Goals by Pavelski, Couture, and Marleau.

	@ 7:30 PST
42-30-5, 89 points		39-29-10, 88 points
3rd in Western Conference		9th in Western Conference

The Sharks were supposed to be much better than this.

Scratch that. The Sharks record was supposed to be much better than this.

Disagree with me as much as you would like, but the Sharks just might be the unluckiest team I've ever seen. I don't want to get too deep into the underlying statistics (you've heard that plenty), the injury issues (every team goes through it) or the inability to get everything moving in the right direction at the same time.

But when you watch San Jose most nights, you can't help but think this team is good. This team has weapons. This team can absolutely obliterate the competition when they are firing on all cylinders. They just haven't been able to do that much of the year.

If you allow me to use a metaphor, and a rather complicated one at that, think of the Sharks as the classic slap-stick example of a guy trying to get something sticky off of him. In a late scene from one of my favorite movies, "Who Framed Roger Rabbit", the maniacal Judge Doom is outwitted by Eddie Valiant, and gets his hand covered in glue while trying to clock Valiant a good one, leading to our example.

Doom, with glue on his fist, then tries to punch again, but gets stuck to a steamroller (convienient!). Then panicking, trying to get his hand free, he steps in glue, tries to use that foot to get his hand free, and gets his foot stuck instead! Lather, Rinse, Repeat as necessary until you're run over by a steamroller.

The Sharks have been Judge Doom all season, fixing one problem and having another one almost immediately replace it. Antti Niemi was god-awful for February, but has since turned it around. Problem solved? No, because now the Sharks can't score a goal to save themselves from being flattened in the Acme Warehouse.

All of that aside, these four games give the Sharks a chance to get their act together. Luckily for San Jose, Dallas and Los Angeles are the two teams in the Pacific that the Sharks have done well against. They've struggled against the Phoenix's and Anaheim's, but gotten better results against the division's top-tier teams. Go figure.

Joe Thornton says that the Sharks have to win all four games to make it in. That's really more like 3-1 if you're serious, and if you go 2-2 but win both games against the same opponent (especially LA), you've got a decent shot too.

This season isn't over yet, and if anything, this high-stakes four game stretch will help Doug Wilson to identify the players that deserve to get another shot with the Sharks next year. If not, they'll be thrown in the dip like a sad, squeaky, shoe. (If you didn't cry during that scene, you either have no heart, hate shoes, or are have no heart AND hate shoes).

Prediciton: Sharks win 2-1. Goals by Havlat.

	@ 7:00 PST
39-28-10, 88 points		37-27-13, 87 points
8th in Western Conference		9th in Western Conference

Take a look at this gong show going in the Pacific Division right now:

Barring an absolute collapse from two of these teams, the Pacific Division will send three teams to the playoffs this season by the skin of their teeth. Colorado and Calgary are still mathematically alive, but it looks unlikely either of them will be able to get it done based off points earned and games played.

San Jose will play Phoenix once, Dallas twice, and Los Angeles twice in their remaining five games. Their playoff fate is firmly in their own hands right now.

Here is the tiebreaking scenario that will likely come into play (or at the very least be heavily discussed) during the next week and a half:

1) The greater number of points earned (herp derp).

2) The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column.

3) The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.

4) The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season. This figure is reflected in the Goal Differential column.

Points earned are obviously the ultimate right now. Having said that, here is how San Jose stands in relation to all of the relevant tiebreakers:

• Dallas is light years ahead in the ROW column and are two points up on 9th seeded Phoenix. They have the inside track on both the Pacific Division title and the subsequent three seed. The rest of ROW is messy (and is going to stay that way until the end of the season. Tonight's game against the Coyotes has a lot of implications, with one of them being how ROW will play out.
• As we've said before, ROW looks like it might determine who makes and misses this season.
• Phoenix will finish with the head to head tiebreaker over San Jose regardless of what happens tonight. The Sharks have earned 4 points; the Coyotes have earned 7.
• San Jose will finish with the head to head tiebreaker over Dallas regardless of what happens in their two remaining games. The Sharks have earned 7 points; the Stars have earned 2. Having said that, with Dallas leading in ROW by such a wide margin, it's highly unlikely this makes a difference at the end of the year.
• Los Angeles currently leads the head to head tiebreaker over San Jose with two games remaining. The Sharks have earned 4 points; the Kings have earned 5.
• The Sharks are in pretty good position in the goal differential tiebreaker with a +12, but with the other tiebreakers taking precedence, this only has the potential to apply to one team-- the Los Angeles Kings.

Don't want to get ahead of ourselves here, but that two game set against Los Angeles has the potential to have all four tiebreakers in play. If both teams are fighting for the final spot that weekend, it might be the most pivotal regular season finish in NHL history considering all of the points and tiebreakers that would be in play.

Make the jump for some brief analysis of how San Jose has played against Phoenix this season.

Continue reading this post »

	@ 7:00 PST
39-27-10, 88 points		32-33-11, 75 points
3rd in Western Conference		11th in Western Conference

The San Jose Sharks look as if they are beginning to round into playoff form just at the right time, obtaining three victories in a row against Boston, Phoenix, and Colorado. There's plenty of good signs going for the team right now-- Martin Havlat's return has provided a spark to San Jose's top six, the fourth (third?) line of Daniel Winnik, Andrew Desjardins, and Tommy Wingels had an excellent game against Colorado, and secondary scoring is on the rise with the Sharks getting 5 goals in their last 3 games from their bottom forward group.

A week ago the Sharks were barely treading water after losing back to back games against Anaheim and Los Angeles. Now they're first in the Pacific Division and on track to obtain their fifth division title in a row (however precarious that lead may be).

Welcome to the playoff bubble ladies and gentleman. Oxygen tanks and a complimentary case of Xanax can be found on the gift table to your right. Please enjoy your stay.

It only makes sense that this turbulent road will come full circle tonight against the Anaheim Ducks, a team that has handed the Sharks their lunch over the course of the year. The Sharks have amassed a measly 1-4-0 record this season against Anaheim, missing out on 8 standings points that at this stage of the game really could have gone a long way towards putting them into a more secure playoff spot.

Heading into the season it was hard to see the Sharks struggling so mightily against Anaheim-- outside of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan, Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky, Cam Fowler, and Jonas Hiller, the Ducks have an astounding lack of depth at key positions. Devante Smith-Pelly looks like he might become a very good player someday, but the fact remains that this Anaheim team isn't one that matches up well against the Sharks on paper.

That's the beauty of hockey though-- you (almost always) get a chance to bounce back. And San Jose has the opportunity to do precisely that tonight.

With Jonas Hiller presumably in net tonight for Anaheim however, that opportunity isn't going to be so easy an easy one to take advantage of.

Although we already covered Hiller's dominance of San Jose earlier in the year I think it bears repeating today. The first reason is because, well, Hiller has been absolutely lights out against the Sharks for his entire career, which includes (but is not limited to!) the 2009 playoffs when Anaheim upset the President Trophy winning Sharks in the first round.

The second is the fact that the Sharks will be facing some excellent goaltending in their last six games. We covered that earlier in the year as well, but again, I think it's something to look out for in these next six games.

But back to Hiller-- here's a data dump of what he has done against San Jose since joining Anaheim in 2007-2008:

2.08 GAA, and most importantly, a .940 SV% in 22 games played.

That's just unbelievably dirty.

Continue reading this post »

	@ 7:30 PST
40-31-6, 86 points		38-27-10, 86 points
10th in Western Conference		9th in Western Conference

Tonight Jamie McGinn returns to HP Pavilion in a game that holds huge implications for both San Jose and Colorado-- a regulation win puts the Sharks on the inside track for a playoff berth, while a regulation loss drops them behind the eight ball. For the Avalanche, a regulation loss would likely end their postseason hopes, while a regulation win would keep those hopes alive.

With only 5 games remaining on their schedule this is Colorado's last bid to do some damage to a team they are in direct competition with for a playoff spot. Their matchup against Calgary later this week provides some sort of intrigue, but with the Flames done for the year (even if a glimmer of hope remains), this could be all she wrote for the Avalanche as they attempt to lock down that final 8 seed in the West.

For San Jose this game is slightly less perilous, even if it can be technically classified as a must-win-- lose in regulation and the Sharks face an uphill battle, but one they could be overcome with all of their remaining games coming against Pacific Division opponents. Having said that, adding as many points right now is obviously in their best interest as any dropped point at this stage in the year is going to sting and just make things tougher going forward.

Nothing you haven't heard before of course.

As David Pollak of Working The Corners mentioned yesterday, the Sharks are starting their first round series right now-- win four out of the next seven and you're probably in, lose four of the next seven and you're probably out. Things aren't quite so cut and dry when you factor in overtime/shootout results, but the core result of that argument is sound and provides a good basis for the next two weeks.

Gamedays are getting a little one dimensional nowadays-- there is only so many times you can say "win the game and move on" before it gets old, and hell, it's not like we've had much blogging practice at this over the last four years-- but the schedule for San Jose is really one that benefits them in terms of controlling their own destiny. So yeah, let's look at that one more time:

San Jose doesn't have to worry about any games outside of their control heading into the dreaded "three-point game" territory. The only time these contenders play one another down the stretch is when they face the Sharks.

To be quite honest it's kind of strange that things worked out this way. Usually the last 10 games of the year are division heavy affairs scheduled to add some intrigue to the postseason. With four Pacific Division teams in the mix it would only make sense to see some high-strung battles heading into the final week that directly determine the postseason fate of both teams. Inside our little Sharks bubble that won't be the case (ADRENALINE!!!1), but outside of that bubble there is a surprisingly lack of direct competition between contenders.

Continue reading this post »

	@ 7:00 PST
37-26-12, 86 points		37-27-10, 84 points
7th in Western Conference		10th in Western Conference

Make no mistake, points are the most pressing need for the Sharks right now. It's desperation time for a desperate hockey team, and while that cliche has already begun to grow stale, it's a valid representation of the fight that lies ahead.

Tonight's game against the Phoenix Coyotes brings that desperation into clear focus as a win would (presumably) vault them into a playoff spot depending upon a myriad of factors. With Dallas hosting Calgary, Los Angeles facing Boston, and Colorado at home against Vancouver, there's no telling where things may end up at the end of the night-- it's like a major motion picture featuring Will Smith and Jackie Chan right now in the wild Western Conference. The one thing you can control is your own results, and the one thing San Jose will bank on is the fact that they can do some damage to a team currently ahead of them of the standings by two points.

Ending the game in regulation, or at the very least ending the game before the shootout, is a large part of that aspect of controlling your own destiny.

Last season the NHL instituted the "ROW" statistic to determine tiebreakers at the end of the year. It counts only regulation and overtime wins, serving as the primary tiebreaker between two teams who are equal in points at the end of the season. It was a decision made to mitigate the effects of the skills competition known as the shootout, which does little to tell us the strength of a team in playoff situations or frankly their ability to play the game of hockey. With results in the shootout coming down to just about a coin flip, this ROW tiebreaker is effective in that allows the League to establish some sort of even playing field in lieu of the three point game. We're very much on board with this idea here at Fear The Fin and think it is a positive way to break deadlocks at the end of the year.

Unfortunately for San Jose, this is an area where they are currently last amongst Western Conference contenders. It may only be one win right now, but as we've learned lately, it only takes a mere inch to separate a sheep from the playoff flock this time of year.

Sharks Head Coach Todd McLellan mentioned the importance of ROW after San Jose's game against Calgary. No, not the game two weeks ago-- try two months ago, on January 17th, when a botched goalie interference call on Tommy Wingels negated Justin Braun's overtime winner and sent the game to the shootout (where San Jose eventually won).

You know what it comes down to, right now regulation and overtime wins mean a lot more than shootout wins and we don't have one in the bank.

>> Sharks Head Coach Todd McLellan, January 17th

The man is a prophet. Which makes sense considering he's one of the most successful Head Coaches of all-time in points %, but even considering that fact, you have to be impressed by how he nailed that idea two months before anyone was even thinking about it.

Heading into today's action the Western Conference is an absolute Clutterbuck of teams fighting for a playoff spot, six squads aiming for three spots and separated by three points top to bottom. Games in hand obviously play some sort of factor here, but at the end of the day this race is going to be a heart attack inducing finish that will come down to the final week of the season. There's no room to waver, wobble, or waste an opportunity.

I think it's fair to say that a playoff spot or divisional title will come to ROW-- either a team will make the postseason based off of it, or teams will head to the second tiebreaker of points earned in games played between them to determine their fate. That's the path this playoff race monster seems intent on taking us towards.

In a perfect world, that means avoiding the shootout for San Jose.

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