We don't have a lot of tools that provide insight into the mind of the NHL head coach. One of the few we do is offensive and defensive deployment. In basic terms, coaches have a few options at the time of a face-off. They can decide which skaters to deploy based on zone, competition, score, time, and strength. In this first part of a series of articles we will take a look at how McLellan has elected to deploy his skaters with the former two, followed by subsequent articles on league wide deployment, and some specific team/game situations.

Continue reading this post »

For the second game in a row, the Sharks faced a team notorious for being defensively stingy and yet, for the second game in a row, the Sharks found themselves in something of a barn-burner. After trading a total of 38 scoring chances with the Coyotes on Saturday night, the Sharks and Flames combined for 41 chances last night with San Jose edging out Calgary in the chance count, 21-20, courtesy of a late surge but falling short on the scoreboard, 4-3. To break it down by game state, the Sharks outchanced the Flames 20-17 at even strength and 8-7 when the score was tied. All three games between these teams so far this season have been very closely contested both on the scoreboard and by the chances which isn't a point in the Sharks' favor considering that, at least on paper, these should be games San Jose dominates.

Best EV Forward: Joe Pavelski (+7)

Worst EV Forward: Torrey Mitchell (-4), Michal Handzus (-4)

Best EV Defenseman: Brent Burns (+8), Douglas Murray (+8)

Worst EV Defenseman: Jim Vandermeer (-4)

Continue reading this post »

Happy Pigskin day everybody! I should mention that as you read this post, Soloact has a great complimentary post with running magic and tragic numbers that's worth reading as well.

We're looking at the playoff picture based on score adjusted Fenwick% again this week (with a minor correction). I also wanted to pick up on something I had posted earlier in the year when we looked at how SJ has compared to the elite teams in the west. This time I added a team by team comparison, as well as plotting expected fenwick% to see which teams SJ has performed well against. Tables and charts after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

I usually try to avoid the Sharks pre-game show at all costs but my DVR picked some of it up last night and the panel was inexplicably discussing potentially trading Joe Pavelski at the deadline. To be fair, it wasn't a topic that was lingered upon but trading Pavelski would, of course, be an incredibly terrible decision and I feel fairly confident in stating that it will not happen seeing as Doug Wilson is a sane individual. Although the puck hasn't always gone in for him and his linemates so far this season, Pavelski was probably the Sharks' best forward of the first half, as he consistently drove the play north and generated scoring chances at an elite rate despite starting in his own zone more often and facing tougher competition than any other Sharks forward.

Hopefully anyone contemplating the trade of Pavelski as a real option was watching last night as Pavs put on a show, dominating the Stars to the tune of six scoring chances to one when he was on the ice at even-strength (five of which came off his stick) in addition to winning six out of seven faceoffs, a category in which he now ranks second in the league behind Jonathan Toews (albeit with the caveat that he's taken far fewer draws than most of the league leaders having lined up at right wing for much of the season). Overall, the Sharks posted one of their most dominant performances of the year, outchancing Dallas 19-8 at evens, 21-10 overall and allowing zero chances against in the second period - despite Dan Boyle shooting the puck into his own net - marking only the third time this season San Jose has held an opponent chance-less in a period.

Best EV Forward: Joe Pavelski (+5), Joe Thornton (+5), Michal Handzus (+5), Jamie McGinn (+5)

Worst EV Forward: Jim Vandermeer (-2)

Best EV Defenseman: Colin White (+9)

Worst EV Defenseman: Douglas Murray (-3)

Continue reading this post »

It's difficult to evaluate the Sharks' performance last night based on scoring chances alone. After Joe Thornton staked the team to a 2-0 lead midway through the first period, score effects predictably took hold as the Sharks were reasonably content to sit back and allow Columbus to control possession for an extended period. That lead to San Jose being outchanced by the Jackets 7-3 in the middle frame although it was of little consequence as the Sharks added two more goals for an overwhelming advantage on the scoreboard.

Columbus really didn't play that poor of a game prior to the third period but Steve Mason was full value for what's now an abysmal .880 SV% on the season. Sadly for Jackets fans, if Mason had even mirrored Curtis Sanford's extremely average .912 SV% this year, Columbus would have allowed 38 fewer goals and likely have the playoffs, rather than Nail Yakupov, in their sights. The Sharks dominated the third although at that point, realistically, neither team had much to play for which is exactly the kind of atmosphere that lends itself to Dan Boyle dropping the gloves with Derick Brassard.

Best EV Forward: Patrick Marleau (+5)

Worst EV Forward: Brad Winchester (-6)

Best EV Defenseman: Dan Boyle (+4)

Worst EV Defenseman: Douglas Murray (-4)

Continue reading this post »

As most of you probably know by now, I've been tracking Sharks scoring chances this season, both here on Fear the Fin and previously at The Neutral. For an in-depth review of what constitutes a scoring chance, please see this post from about a month ago (the most pertinent stuff, including a diagram of the scoring chance area, is right after the jump). Since it's only been 16 games since the last roundup, I won't inundate everyone with a complete breakdown of the numbers but seeing as there's some downtime here during the All-Star break, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at zonestart-adjusted scoring chances for individual players.

Obviously, not every player in the league starts an equal percentage of their shifts in the offensive and defensive zones. Coaches make strategic decisions based on players' strengths and weaknesses, as well as the overall composition of their rosters, to shelter some players with more shifts in the opponent's end of the ice and rely on others in a defensive role, most frequently sending those players over the boards to take care of business in their own end. The most extreme example of zonestart distribution happens in Vancouver, where Henrik and Daniel Sedin have begun 79% of their EV shifts in the offensive zone this season while former Shark Manny Malhotra allows them to do so by starting a ridiculously low 13% of his own shifts in the opponent's end of the ice.

While Todd McLellan doesn't take as extreme an approach to zonestarts as Alain Vigneault, it's still imperative to contextualize data like scoring chances, Corsi or Fenwick at the individual player level by correcting for the advantages that come with starting a large number of shifts in the offensive zone as well as the inherent disadvantage facing a player who begins the majority of his shifts with a defensive zone draw. Thanks to the great George Ays, we can do that for the Sharks' even strength chance numbers this season. George, who tracks Rangers chances, was able to conclude that each additional shift a player begins in the offensive zone at even strength is worth 0.425 scoring chances. Coming up, we'll take a look at how the Sharks' forwards and defensemen have performed with regards to EV scoring chances this season by adjusting for zonestarts.

Continue reading this post »

Before we get rolling with the post I want to introduce myself. Recently I've fan posted a few stats related articles and also spent some time writing for BTN (now AIC). I plan to contribute some advanced stats analysis of the sharks here at FTF, and some material on league wide metrics as well. I'll try to bring highly relevant, interesting stat related material regarding this year's team. If you want to see something specific feel free to let me know. I hope you enjoy it!

A few weeks ago I started compiling a few different models that would look at playoff probabilities. In part because I think there is still considerable debate going on in the advanced stats community about what exactly is the best metric for predicting future success (Point% specifically), and also because I wanted to see what the potential playoff match-ups would look like. We're basically killing 2 birds with 1 stone by setting up an "experiment" for which variable predicts future success the best, while also looking at current team rankings through playoff probabilities. Let's look at data through the lens of the currently most predictive model, score adjusted fenwick%.

Continue reading this post »

This past offseason Sharks General Manager Doug Wilson revamped his fourth line in an attempt to get younger, stronger, and more responsible on his lower lines. Scott Nichol and Jamal Mayers were let go after their contracts expired due to what was presumably an increase in age and lack of mobility, while midseason trade acquisition Ben Eager was also left unsigned following a playoff series against Vancouver that saw him take unnecessary penalties and manage to lose his cool.

Former Worcester Sharks centerman Andrew Desjardins was promoted to full time duties after a strong postseason with the big club, winger Andrew Murray was signed in the offseason, and Brad Winchester made good on his training camp tryout with the club to lock down the final spot on that previously vacant fourth line.

We've spent a lot of time talking about the Sharks fourth line this season and how much it's improved since last year, but it never hurts to see what's going on under the hood as we head into the All-Star Break.

And the fourth line's numbers from last year:

Some bullet points to consider:

• Ben Eager's numbers come from his time in Atlanta (34 GP) and San Jose (34 GP), so keep that in mind when you're browsing through.
  
• Color me surprised that the fourth line hasn't seen increased ice time at even strength in comparison to last year. Part of it is due to the fact that the third line has been more reliable than it was during the first half of 2010-2011 (before Pavelski fully transitioned into being the third line center), but McLellan has used his pluggers in a similar fashion.
• Points and goal scoring is fairly similar to where they were last season, although last year's group had a little more balance and overall pop.

More following the jump.

Continue reading this post »