That Was Ugly: How the SJS Play Against Top Talent

After the implosion which was last night's game I had this creeping feeling that all veteran sharks fans feel between now and April. Are we just a good regular season team? I don't mean to start chicken little rhetoric and there is no definitive answer, but lets look at what the numbers are saying...

Opponents GP Fen% G% P% GP Road Fen% Road G% Road P% GP Home Fen% Home G% Home P%
Top 5 8 0.464 0.543 0.563 3 0.463 0.556 0.500 5 0.465 0.536 0.600
Top 10 16 0.489 0.559 0.625 7 0.495 0.514 0.257 9 0.485 0.594 0.297
Middle 10 12 0.537 0.571 0.708 5 0.465 0.597 0.700 7 0.588 0.552 0.714
Bottom 10 14 0.567 0.585 0.643 6 0.538 0.641 0.750 8 0.589 0.543 0.563
Bottom 5 9 0.582 0.479 0.444 4 0.556 0.545 0.625 5 0.603 0.427 0.300

**GP=Games Played, Fen%=(Goals For+Shots For+Misses For)/((Goals For+Shots For+Misses For)+(Goals Against+Shots Against+Misses Against),

G%=Goals For/(Goals For + Goals Against), P%=Total Points/ Total Points Possible

I broke down SJS' season thus far by opponents ranked by FRC (Road Fenwick% close), which is (thus far) the best predictor we have of future success. Top 5 being the the top 5 teams in FRC, Top 10 being the top 10 teams in FRC, and so on. I used home/road splits for shits and giggles (the sample sizes are pretty small, but hey wtf).

After last nights whipping I wanted to look at how SJS was doing against top 10 and really top 5 teams. If SJ wants a deep playoff run, they better start bringing more. On the surface one may conclude that SJ has done fairly well against top talent, accruing 9 points over 8 games. But a deeper statistical look into those games suggest the contrary. SJ has a very league average 0.464 Fen% against those teams. Ie. their just not getting it done. Of course we can say, "but Neimi is playing great and the sharks are putting it in the net when it counts!" That's much like saying they are getting good goal-tending, and timely scoring. Which you may have heard is the key to playoff success, but if your a advanced stat gnome like myself, it's never a good thing. In fact the whole year SJ has sustained an above average PDO, which may or may not probably isn't sustainable.

After waxing about this, I unfortunately have no clue what the solution is. But I assure you DW and TMac are looking at the same thing.

This item was created by a member of this blog's community and is not necessarily endorsed by Fear The Fin.

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