Running Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/3/12
Disclaimer: This is a prediction of the final standings, and is by no means 100% accurate. I use what I believe to be the most accurate predictor of future success, Score-Adj Fenwick, but this is quite debatable. Take these numbers with a grain of salt, meaning, a probability over 50% indicates a likelihood of making the playoffs, while under 50% suggests the opposite. The model is also constantly going through revisions as I learn more about prediction, a full description of the model can be found here, and analysis of this and different models will come in the off season.
Soloact's phenomenal Running Magic and Tragic numbers can be found here.
What better way to chronicle the end of the season than with playoff predictions. It's going to either be a dramatic collapse never before seen, or a gut wrenching ride to the post-season.
Predicted Western Final Standings
| Final Standings | Team | Score Adj Fenwick% | Playoff Probability | Mean Points | Mean ROWs | Mean Ties | Mean Losses | Change in PP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Canucks | 51.92 | 100.0% | 111.54 | 43.01 | 9.25 | 29.74 | 0.0% |
| 2 | St. Louis Blues | 54.12 | 100.0% | 109.62 | 45.39 | 10.42 | 26.19 | 0.0% |
| 3 | Los Angeles Kings | 52.79 | 97.3% | 95.25 | 34.86 | 13.25 | 33.89 | 14.7% |
| 4 | Detroit Red Wings | 54.81 | 100.0% | 102.55 | 40.36 | 5.42 | 36.22 | 0.0% |
| 5 | Nashville Predators | 47.14 | 100.0% | 102.03 | 41.76 | 8.24 | 32.00 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Chicago Blackhawks | 52.45 | 100.0% | 100.53 | 39.06 | 10.14 | 32.80 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Phoenix Coyotes | 49.08 | 97.4% | 95.31 | 34.95 | 13.14 | 33.91 | 24.1% |
| 8 | San Jose Sharks | 52.83 | 91.2% | 94.25 | 33.86 | 10.25 | 37.89 | 40.3% |
| 9 | Dallas Stars | 50.14 | 12.3% | 91.21 | 35.84 | 5.25 | 40.91 | -74.4% |
| 10 | Colorado Avalanche | 50.09 | 1.7% | 90.33 | 32.86 | 6.35 | 42.80 | -1.2% |
| 11 | Calgary Flames | 47.71 | 0.0% | 87.95 | 32.65 | 16.35 | 32.99 | -3.5% |
| 12 | Minnesota Wild | 45.16 | 0.0% | 80.74 | 24.57 | 11.34 | 46.09 | 0.0% |
| 13 | Anaheim Ducks | 48.90 | 0.0% | 80.43 | 31.01 | 12.14 | 38.86 | 0.0% |
| 14 | Edmonton Oilers | 47.89 | 0.0% | 75.07 | 27.77 | 9.25 | 44.98 | 0.0% |
| 15 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 47.49 | 0.0% | 63.11 | 23.79 | 7.25 | 50.96 | 0.0% |
Predicted Eastern Final Standings
| Final Standings | Team | Score Adj Fenwick% | Playoff Probability | Mean Points | Mean ROWs | Mean Ties | Mean Losses | Change in PP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Rangers | 49.78 | 100.0% | 111.08 | 47.78 | 7.24 | 26.97 | 0.00% |
| 2 | Boston Bruins | 52.85 | 100.0% | 100.46 | 39.97 | 4.25 | 37.79 | 0.00% |
| 3 | Florida Panthers | 49.63 | 98.3% | 94.31 | 31.89 | 18.25 | 31.86 | 1.13% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 54.64 | 100.0% | 106.44 | 40.91 | 6.34 | 34.74 | 0.00% |
| 5 | Philadelphia Flyers | 51.28 | 100.0% | 103.20 | 42.84 | 9.25 | 29.91 | 0.00% |
| 6 | New Jersey Devils | 51.18 | 100.0% | 100.12 | 34.80 | 6.25 | 40.95 | 0.01% |
| 7 | Ottawa Senators | 50.55 | 100.0% | 94.15 | 35.81 | 10.25 | 35.94 | 7.29% |
| 8 | Washington Capitals | 49.41 | 65.2% | 90.22 | 36.85 | 8.25 | 36.90 | 12.48% |
| 9 | Buffalo Sabres | 48.97 | 36.6% | 90.13 | 32.86 | 10.14 | 39.00 | -20.88% |
| 10 | Winnipeg Jets | 50.78 | 0.0% | 85.44 | 33.96 | 9.25 | 38.79 | -0.03% |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 47.60 | 0.0% | 84.39 | 35.39 | 7.21 | 39.40 | 0.00% |
| 12 | Carolina Hurricanes | 48.30 | 0.0% | 82.21 | 32.84 | 16.24 | 32.91 | 0.00% |
| 13 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 47.76 | 0.0% | 80.25 | 30.86 | 10.24 | 40.90 | 0.00% |
| 14 | New York Islanders | 48.62 | 0.0% | 79.21 | 26.84 | 11.25 | 43.91 | 0.00% |
| 15 | Montreal Canadiens | 47.88 | 0.0% | 76.31 | 25.24 | 15.42 | 41.34 | 0.00% |
Last column represents a change in playoff probability from 3/29/12. Full spreadsheet can be found here
Predicted Pacific Division Final Standings
| Final Standings | Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Kings | 0.543 | 0.251 | 0.179 | 0.027 | 0.000 |
| 2 | Phoenix Coyotes | 0.287 | 0.558 | 0.130 | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| 3 | San Jose Sharks | 0.170 | 0.179 | 0.580 | 0.071 | 0.000 |
| 4 | Dallas Stars | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.111 | 0.877 | 0.000 |
| 5 | Anaheim Ducks | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Next Game: San Jose Sharks @ Los Angeles Kings
| Points | San Jose Sharks | Los Angeles Kings | 3rd seed | 7th seed | 8th seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 0.375 | 0.377 | 0.311 | 0.565 | 1 |
| 2-1 | 0.124 | 0.124 | 0.311 | 0.564 | 1 |
| 1-2 | 0.124 | 0.124 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.913 |
| 0-2 | 0.377 | 0.375 | 0.000 | 0.086 | 0.779 |
First 2 columns represent the probability of winning, OT/SO loss, or a loss for SJ and their opposition. The last 2 columns represent the probability of SJ going to playoffs and winning the division, respectively, given the outcome (ie. points) in the row. For example, if the sharks win in regulation their probability of going to the playoffs is 0.474, a loss in OT/SO is 0.275, and a loss in regulation is 0.182.
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