The changes to the NHL’s draft lottery system put in place last year make it even harder for teams to luck their way into first overall. One particular wrinkle is that teams cannot move up more than 10 spots in the draft order, meaning only the bottom 11 teams at the end of the regular season will be eligible for the first-overall draw.
With 16 of the league’s 32 teams eliminated from the postseason, that leaves five teams who will only be eligible for the second-overall selection. The third-overall selection is no longer a lottery selection, meaning the Montreal Canadiens are guaranteed to pick no later than third overall.
Under these new rules, the San Jose Sharks have barely made the cut to be eligible for the first-overall, finishing in the 11th-worst position at the end of the regular season. Should they be selected — a three percent odds — it will be the most a team is allowed to move up.
Here are the full odds of all eliminated teams:
- Montreal Canadiens — 18.5%
- Arizona Coyotes — 13.5%
- Seattle Kraken — 11.5%
- Philadelphia Flyers — 9.5%
- New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
- Chicago Blackhawks* — 7.5%
- Ottawa Senators — 6.5%
- Detroit Red Wings — 6.0%
- Buffalo Sabres — 5.0%
- Anaheim Ducks — 3.5%
- San Jose Sharks — 3.0%
- Columbus Blue Jackets — 2.5%
- New York Islanders — 2.0%
- Winnipeg Jets — 1.5%
- Vancouver Canucks — 0.5%
- Vegas Golden Knights** — 0.5%
*This pick will go to the Columbus Blue Jackets, if not a lottery selection.
**This pick will go to the Buffalo Sabres, if not a top-10 selection due to the lottery.
News & Notes
- Burns on What Boughner Did Right, If He Wants to Chase Cup Elsewhere [San Jose Hockey Now]
- Hertl Will Play in World Championships, Says Sharks Need a Scorer [San Jose Hockey Now]
- Sharks’ Bob Boughner talks job status, impact of Evander Kane’s absence on season [The Mercury News]
- Three big contract decisions the Sharks will face this offseason [The Mercury News]
The man. The myth. The legend.— Kaapo Kähkönen (@KaapoKahkonen) April 30, 2022
Blood in the Water
- 2022 NHL Draft Lottery odds announced [NHL.com]
- 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs: Breaking down all 16 teams in the NHL postseason [ESPN]
- 2022 NHL Playoffs: Ranking every first-round series by entertainment value [CBS Sports]
- U-18 World Hockey Championships: The Top Performers [The Hockey News]
- Color of Hockey: Spence’s unique, unconventional path to NHL with Kings [NHL.com]
- Red Wings Opt to Not Renew Blashill, Houda, and Salajko [Winging It In Motown]