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2024 player review Filip Zadina: Gamble didn’t pay off

Apr 4, 2024; San Jose, California, USA; San Jose Sharks right wing Filip Zadina (18) shoots the puck against Los Angeles Kings defenseman Mikey Anderson (44) during the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

For Filip Zadina, the 2023-24 season was one of those prove it seasons. Last summer, the forward walked away from a guaranteed two-year contract worth more than $4.5 million with the Detroit Red Wings for the opportunity to prove that he was a better player. He took a risk and signed a one-year deal with the San Jose Sharks, hoping that an opportunity for more playing time would prove his detractors wrong.

Sadly for Zadina, that definitive proof never seemed to materialize.

Zadina’s 2023-24 production

Zadina was relatively healthy this season, and the games he missed were usually due to a coaching decision rather than an injury.

Games PlayedGAPts+/-TOI/G
72131023-4413:20
Stats courtesy of NHL.com.

The 2018 sixth-overall pick had 23 points in 72 games. That’s not bad for a fourth-liner, but is nowhere near where Zadina wanted to be this season. He was trying to prove that he had what it takes to become a top-six forward in the NHL with power play upside.

Zadina received his chances to play top-six minutes. In the season’s first game against the Vegas Golden Knights, Zadina earned 16:21 of ice time. He scored a goal and had four shots on goal. In the next game, the overtime bout with the Colorado Avalanche, Zadina played 23 shifts and 21:01 of ice time. He was leaned on heavily but had just three shots on goal and no points to show for his efforts.

His ice time dropped off for a string of games following the Colorado game and while he was given opportunities to earn back a spot in the top-six, Zadina never proved himself reliable enough in then-Head Coach David Quinn’s eyes.

Zadina’s lack of defense overshadowed any offensive contribution

For Zadina, offense has not been the problem as much as defense. While solid defense can often lead to scoring opportunities, poor defense can often take away your scoring chances, hemming you into your own end when you should be attacking.

Looking at Zadina’s regularized-adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) chart from Evolving-Hockey, you can see that this was the case for Zadina.

You can see from the chart that while Zadina had a positive impact on potential offense, xGF/60, his impact on defense more than offset that. The expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) was among the worst in the league. His Corsi-against per 60 minutes (CA/60) was just as bad.

You want your top players to have a complete game. According to Evolving-Hockey’s stats, Zadina did not have that. While his even-strength offense goals above replacement was 0.9, his even-strength defense goals above replacement was a negative-6.7. For every one goal that Zadina scored at even-strength, nearly six goals were scored by the other team.

This carried over to the power play, where Zadina’s lack of attention to defense prevented the Sharks from creating any type of scoring momentum. As you can see from the second half of the chart, Zadina was below league average when it came to goals on the power play while he was on the ice.

Zadina’s trajectory as a player

While he is only 24 years old, Zadina has already played 262 NHL games. To determine where he would best fit on a team, we need to look at his history as a player.

Evolving-Hockey has a SPAR chart, which looks at the points a player contributes to his team above the average replacement player for his position. The line at zero marks where the average player would be.

For Zadina, the trajectory is not good. It shows that this season with San Jose was one of the worst in his career. In six seasons in the NHL, Zadina has only been above the middle of the pack in SPAR in one season, the 2019-20 season. What’s more, since then, it’s been a steady decline.

There are plenty of valid excuses for Zadina’s decline. It could be argued that the COVID shutdown and the ensuing seasons affected Zadina’s development more than most. It could also be argued that the Red Wings did not develop him properly, though that would simply be a common argument with young players that have high expectations in general.

No matter the argument, it still leaves us with a 24-year-old forward who lacks defensive responsibility and offers little in the way of offense to make up for it.

Zadina’s future with the Sharks

Zadina is a restricted free agent (RFA) this season, and he is arbitration-eligible. General Manager Mike Grier has indicated that he’s open to bringing Zadina back, though he never definitively said the forward would return.

For Zadina, it’s clear that next season, his opportunity to claim a position in the top-six with the Sharks may be smaller than it was this past season. The Sharks are going to draft Macklin Celebrini as first overall. Prospect Will Smith has signed his entry-level contract. With Mikael Granlund, Fabian Zetterlund and William Eklund already locked into top-six roles and Smith and Celebrini likely joining the Sharks fo opening night, Zadina’s opportunity has all but vanished.

Remember, he left millions of dollars on the table to prove he belonged in a top-six role. Zadina’s return will likely depend on whether his mindset has changed or if he thinks he still has an opportunity to earn that spot with the Sharks.

Grier won’t offer much to get Zadina to come back and it’s hard to see Grier paying more just to keep the forward. It’s likely the decision to return to the Sharks or not is all on Zadina.

Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out the player reviews for the San Jose Sharks. We realize there were a lot of guys rotating into and out of the lineup and some of the key depth players were traded. As a result, Fear the Fin plans to focus on the players who are 1) still with the Sharks and 2) played 20 or more games for San Jose this season.

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