While Matthew Schaefer is the presumed number one overall pick and likely to be drafted by the New York Islanders on draft day, you can never truly predict what a team is going to do. Take, for instance, last season when the Anaheim Ducks selected Beckett Sennecke third overall or when Shane Wright fell to fourth overall in the 2022 draft. The point is, you can’t always tell what the team in front of you is going to do.
So, to prepare Sharks’ fans for as many options as possible, we’re going to take a look at three potential picks for the Sharks at number two: Michael Misa, the player the Sharks are expected to select, Anton Frondell, one of the players the Sharks could take if the Sharks choose to skew away from Misa and Matthew Schaefer, if he’s available at number two. In this post, we’ll explore who the Sharks could get if the Islanders go off script.
The only defenseman considered worthy of a top-five pick, Schaefer is a 17-year-old player who just barely made the age cutoff to qualify for this draft. Even as one of the youngest players available, Schaefer is considered the best prospect in the bunch. That’s saying something.
But this draft isn’t considered super deep, so what makes Schaefer rise above?
Matthew Schaefer, D – Erie Otters (OHL)
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 183 pounds
Age/DOB: 17, Sept. 5, 2007
Shoots: Left
Erie Otters (OHL): 17 games, 22 points (7 G, 15 A)
Canada U20 World Junior Championship: 2 games, 2 points (1 G, 1 A)
Schaefer only played 17 games for the Erie Otters last season and still managed to increase his point total from his 2023-24 season in Erie. Schaefer had 22 points in 17 games.
The case against Matthew Schaefer
Here’s the thing about Schaefer: the defenseman had a very small sample size in his draft season. He broke his clavicle in the World Juniors in January and didn’t play much after that. As a result, experts might be able to project what Schaefer will be, but there’s not enough data there to really bear out those predictions.
People think that Schaefer will be able to quarterback the first power play unit, and they think that he’ll be offensively skilled, but with only 17 games to go by, it’s hard to say if that guess is more or less likely to come true.
The case for Matthew Schaefer
But those 17 games have truly impressed, and from everything we’ve read, it has not caused scouts to waver in their opinion of Schafer. NHL.com deputy managing editor Adam Kimelman said that during Schafer’s limited action, “… he displayed elite skating, a dynamic offensive game and showed that he’s strong enough (6-foot-2, 183 pounds) that he can handle any situation in the defensive zone.”
Meanwhile, NHL.com’s senior draft writer Mike G. Morreale credits Schaefer’s ability to kill penalties and quarterback the power play.
Physically, Schaefer has some key attributes that are ideal in any prospect, forward or defenseman. The Athletic ranked him fifth among skaters in this prospect pool and sixth in puck skills. The staff believes he’s second in hockey sense, only behind James Hagens.
In other words, Schaefer is a potential top-pairing defenseman that the Sharks would and should jump on if he’s available at number two.
What the scouts say about Schaefer
And if you need more convincing, here’s what the scouts are saying about Schaefer:
FloHockey’s Chris Peters: “In his small sample, Schaefer didn’t have any truly bad games. He is consistent, mature, and has all of the tools to be a No. 1 defenseman in the NHL. His skating is among the best in the class and his hockey sense is right up there, too. Schafer has been through a lot in his young life, but has met his challenges with grace well beyond his years. As a pick, he is not without risk, but there’s so much upside that teams have mostly dismissed the long absence and still view him as a potential long-term No. 1 defenseman at the top of his projection.”
The Athletic’s Corey Pronman: “His main asset is his skating. He’s a powerful, effortless skater who will be able to close gaps and transition up ice at a clear NHL level. He uses his feet to attack often, leading and supporting rushes very well. Schaefer is a very intelligent defenseman with legit offensive skills. He creates a lot of chances due to his skating, but he can also break down opponents one-on-one with his hands, and finds a lot of seams to make plays. He closes on checks at a high level due to his athleticism, but Schaefer is also a great competitor. He uses his size to make stops, gives a great effort every shift and projects to be able to stop top players in the NHL.”
Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis: “He’s so smart, so skilled, and the results at just about every single level have been so promising. Schaefer is hard to beat in 1-on-1 situations, and despite playing close to 30 minutes a night with Erie, he still found ways to have some outstanding underlying analytics. There isn’t a better, more deceptive skater on the blueline in this draft class, with his mobility being among the best we’ve seen in recent draft classes. He thinks that game is at such an advanced level at his age, often luring opponents in before pulling off a deceptive deke and getting the puck where it needs to be. Get ready to watch him challenge for Norris Trophies.”
The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler: “But it’s his brilliant, frankly incredible skating (he’s the best-skating D in the class) that really elevates his projection as a potential No. 1 D and two-way transition monster. He’s got great posture and glide. He’s a balanced and flowing skater with light edges and great posture on his heels skating backwards as well as his toes going forward. He’s mobile in all four directions. But his ability to fly north-south, transport pucks down ice, track back when he’s carried end-to-end, go back and get pucks, and catch guys defensively is elite.”
Conclusion
If Schaefer is available at second overall, you better believe that the Sharks are going to trip over themselves getting to the podium to select him. Not only does Schaefer fill the biggest hole in the Sharks’ talent pool at defense, but he also fits General Manager Mike Grier’s criteria of the best player left on the board.
Cross your fingers, Sharks fans, and hope that the Islanders choose hometown boy James Hagens instead of Schaefer on draft day.
