25-year-old Nikolai Kovalenko had an interesting first season in the NHL. Kovalenko started out with the Colorado Avalanche, finding himself with limited playing time in his first 28 games of the season. But, on Dec. 9, 2024, the Avs traded Kovalenko to the San Jose Sharks in a package deal that saw the Sharks send Mackenzie Blackwood the other way.
The trade appeared to be a chance for Kovalenko to get top-six minutes that he was not receiving in Colorado. However, the forward was on a short leash, and after a few games on the top line with Macklin Celebrini, he found himself with diminished playing time and then, at points, sitting in the press box.
Kovalenko’s 2024-25 production
Kovalenko started out his time in San Jose by endearing himself to the fans. In his second game in teal, the rookie assisted on three goals. He then went on a three-game scoring streak, accumulating five points in those three games.
| Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points | +/- | Shooting % | TOI/Game |
| 28 (COL) | 4 | 4 | 8 | -7 | 14.8% | 12:00 |
| 29 (SJS) | 3 | 9 | 12 | -2 | 16.7% | 12:40 |
But Kovalenko cooled off after those first four games and didn’t register another point until Jan. 4. From then on, Kovalenko was inconsistent in his scoring. He finished his time with the Sharks with 12 points in 29 games and ended his rookie season with a total of 20 points in 57 games.
Earning his spot on the team
Kovalenko’s camp would say this production was simply a matter of not getting enough of a chance. As reported by San Jose Hockey Now, Kovalenko’s father, Andrei, told a Russian media outlet that Nikolai deserved a better shot.
“It was understandable when Nikolai, in the first half of the season, played on the third line in Colorado, because that club is a championship contender, the competition on the top lines is extremely high. The situation in San Jose, with all respect, is different. It’s obvious there’s personal [bias] from the coach [Ryan Warsofsky] – and there’s no alignment with the [direction] of the management. Watch the Sharks’ games – and you’ll see who deserves what,” reported San Jose Hockey Now.
On the other side of things, Sharks management and some of the players believe that Kovalenko didn’t work hard enough to earn that chance. Without being inside the meetings between management and Kovalenko, it’s hard to say who is right.
Statistically speaking
However, looking strictly at the numbers, it looks like Kovalenko might have a case.
According to Evolving-Hockey, among all forwards on the Sharks this season, Kovalenko was seventh in goals above replacement.
According to the chart, Kovalenko was more impactful over the span of the season than players like Cam Lund, Will Smith, Luke Kunin and Barclay Goodrow. That means that Kovalenko’s father might have a point, given the performance on the ice, Kovalenko might have “deserved” more ice time than some of the other players on the Sharks who received it.
In the area of expected goals above replacement, Evolving-Hockey has Kovalenko listed as middle of pack among Sharks’ forwards. He wasn’t better than players like Carl Grundstrom, Alex Wennberg or Zack Ostapchuk, but he exceeded players like Kunin, Goodrow and Ty Dellandrea pretty easily.
Kovalenko’s role with the Sharks
Which leads to the reason why Kovalenko may not have been given as much of a “shot” as other players on the team. Yes, offensively, Kovalenko was good. But he was not exceptional, which means he was not given as much leeway as a player like Celebrini, Will Smith or Tyler Toffoli received.
Skill-wise, Kovalenko did not excel in key areas. For example, the NHL is getting faster, but the forward’s skating speed was below the 50th percentile in almost all categories. According to the NHL Edge stats, more than 85% of Kovalenko’s speed bursts occurred in the lower third of the range, between 18 and 20 miles per hour (mph). He had just two speed bursts all season above 22 mph.
And, he was getting protected time, something normally reserved for the offensively-minded players. Looking at the NHL Edge Zone Time chart, you can see that at even-strength, Kovalenko received more offensive zone starts than defensive zone ones.
For a team like the Sharks, which spent a lot of time in its own defensive zone, Kovalenko wasn’t always trusted to take the defensive zone starts for the team.
Kovalenko did not produce like a top-six forward this season and he wasn’t defensively responsible enough to play in a bottom-six role. He received zero minutes on the penalty kill this season.
So, while Kovalenko was indeed more offensively gifted than Goodrow, Kunin or Dellandrea, his offensive upside did not overpower his defensive downside.
Kovalenko’s future with the Sharks
It is not clear yet if Kovalenko will be back with the Sharks next season. Kovalenko is a restricted free agent and he will need a new contract if he plans to return to the NHL next season.
Of course, whether that new contract gets done is another issue. The young winger, as politely as possible, indicated that his view of what he deserved in terms of playing time and what the team felt he deserved did not align. With the return of Egor Afanasyev, the spring addition of Cam Lund and the likelihood that Kasper Halttunen and Quentin Musty will join the Barracuda this fall, Kovalenko faces a lot more competition.
I could see the Sharks signing Kovalenko to a one-year contract, provided the player is willing. It would be sad to see Kovalenko give up after one season in the NHL, he showed promise. That said, he will need to return in the fall with a chip on his shoulder if he’s going to have a chance. He’ll need to fight for a roster spot, not just believe that he deserves one.
Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out the player reviews for the San Jose Sharks. We realize there were a lot of guys rotating into and out of the lineup and some of the key depth players were traded. As a result, Fear the Fin plans to focus on the players who are 1) still with the Sharks even if they are not under contract at the moment and 2) played 20 or more games for San Jose this season.
