Since coming to San Jose to helm the Sharks, General Manager Mike Grier has never wavered from his promise of drafting the best player available (BPA). He’s always said that he will draft the BPA and no matter what the noise around him is, he’s stuck to that promise. It happened last season when the Sharks selected Michael Misa despite having a need for a defenseman and even more so when, with the 30th overall pick, the team selected goaltender Joshua Ravensbergen because he was next up on the team’s internal list of best players available.
Which brings us to this year’s draft, where Grier has again said that he will draft the BPA, and if that’s the case, most people are saying that if the Toronto Maple Leafs take Gavin McKenna as expected, then the BPA at number two will be Ivar Stenberg from Sweden.
Ivar Stenberg, F – Frölunda HC (SHL)
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 181 pounds
Age/DOB: 18, Sept. 30, 2007
Shoots: Left
Frölunda HC (SHL): 43 games, 33 points (11 G, 22 A)
Sweden U20 World Junior Championship: 7 games, 10 points (4 G, 6 A)
Sweden World Championship: 8 games, 8 points (4 G, 4 A)
Stenberg is one of the more impressive prospects on the list because he played last season among men and held his own. The 18-year-old played 43 games in Sweden’s top league, the SHL, and scored 33 points, including 11 goals. It was enough to earn him Rookie of the Year honors, beating out fellow top prospect in this draft, Viggo Björck, and top Chicago Blackhawks’ prospect Anton Frondell.
Stenberg then moved up to Sweden’s national team in the spring, where he played at a point per game pace at the World Championship. Again, he showed his ability to compete against men and hold his own.
While it’s not a huge deal, the one thing to keep an eye on is his age. Stenberg is slightly older than some of the other players in this draft. He will turn 19 on Sept. 30. That means he’s a bit more developed than some of the others. For comparison, Macklin Celebrini was 18 years and 15 days when he was drafted, and Michael Misa was 18 years and 131 days old. Stenberg will be 18 years and 269 days old on draft day. Some people care about that stuff.
The case against Stenberg
The fact that he’s close to overage is only a slight strike against him. Some might believe there’s less room for exponential growth than a younger player might have. That said, players grow at different paces, and so it may not be a downside at all.
In terms of physical downsides, there have been critiques of his ability to skate. It’s been described as “average” by some. His size, 6’0″, also isn’t overwhelming, especially when you take into account that he’s almost a year older than some of the other players in the draft, but it’s not a huge issue.
Perhaps the biggest argument against the forward has nothing to do with his play at all, but his position. The Sharks are overflowing with forwards and blindly grasping at straws for defensemen. With the likes of Chase Reid, Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff and Alberts Smits available, it’s very, very tempting to skip over Stenberg and choose a defenseman instead.
The case for Stenberg
Stenberg is a game-breaking winger and the Sharks don’t have one of those in the fold just yet. He’s projected to be better than Quentin Musty, who would be considered the best winger in the Sharks’ prospect pool at the moment. What’s more, he has a higher upside than William Eklund. Scouts believe that Stenberg will be a consistent 80-90 point player in the NHL and that’s without factoring in playing him alongside Celebrini, which would likely give any player a boost.
Like the other forwards that Grier has gathered so far, Stenberg is considered a smart hockey player and is credited with his two-way play. He thinks the game at a high level and protects the puck well. He would, as a whole, be an excellent complement to Celebrini’s wing and could create one of the best lines in the NHL with Celebrini and Will Smith.
And while it might be petty, there’s the added bonus that taking Stenberg would frustrate the heck out of the teams below San Jose on the draft board, specifically the Chicago Blackhawks and New York Rangers. Both teams’ fans have been trying to pawn off their players in lopsided trades to get the second-overall pick and snag Stenberg for themselves. Hearing Stenberg’s name called and seeing the social media meltdown would be a bit of fun.
What the scouts say about Stenberg
Sportsnet’s Jason Bukala has Stenberg as his number one overall prospect. While Bukala believes McKenna will ultimately score more than Stenberg, when it comes to complete players, he says Stenberg is the better of the two.
“I still have Stenberg No. 1 overall because I am very comfortable with his overall game. I trust him defensively and value his offensive upside. In time, I believe he has the potential to produce in the 80-95 point range in the NHL,” wrote Bukala on May 27.
The Athletic’s Corey Pronman considers Stenberg a future top-of-the-lineup player in the NHL.
“Stenberg is an electric offensive talent. He’s a high-end puck handler, passer and shooter who can make difficult plays with the puck routinely and is a natural scorer,” wrote Pronman in his June draft rankings. “He isn’t that big or mean, but he works hard and has shown he can win battles against men. His frame and good (but not great) small-guy skating will be concerns on his NHL projection. He could be a top-line winger.”
Other scouts are also high on Stenberg.
“He’s exceptionally smart,” NHL Director of European Scouting Jukka-Pekka Vuorinen told NHL.com’s Deputy Managing Editor Adam Kimelman. “High hockey IQ, elite awareness and decision-making. He’s a highly skilled playmaker/scorer hybrid, able to drive offense and finish. He also has a great two-way reliability, makes strong defensive reads, and has an effective retrieval and disruption game.”
And on Puckpedia, Brett Harrogate of The Pro Hockey Group said Stenberg is a “shifty, deceptive player with elite skating ability who can slow the game down or push the pace when needed. Makes all the little plays right and stands out through poise and the chances he creates. Vision is high-end and he stays calm under pressure. Not overly physical, but will finish checks when the opportunity is there.”
Conclusion
Stenberg may very well be the best player available, and if Grier sticks to the plan he’s always had, then he’ll be calling Stenberg’s name at number two overall, need be damned.
That said, don’t count out a draft day trade. Grier’s shown he’s also not afraid to trade down on draft day if it puts the team in a better position. That’s what he did in 2022 when he traded the 11th overall pick (Conor Geekie) to the Arizona Coyotes. The deal got San Jose the 27th overall (Filip Bystedt), 34th overall (Cam Lund) and 45th overall (Mattias Havelid) picks in that draft.
While the second overall is certainly worth more than the 11th overall, Grier has not been afraid of making moves before if it means making the team better in the long run. It’s how we got here, with one of the best prospect pools in the NHL and knocking on the door of the playoffs, in the first place.
