For a few weeks now, it looked like 18-year-old Macklin Celebrini wasn’t going to make enough noise in the final stretch of the season to overtake the Montreal Canadiens’ Lane Hutson or the Calgary Flames’ Dustin Wolf in the Calder Trophy race. In fact, the recent offensive resurgence of the Philadelphia Flyers’ Matvei Michkov made it look like Celebrini might end up splitting the forward vote with another recently drafted forward. That was until last night, when with one 60-minute game, Celebrini suddenly put the Calder voters on notice that he’s not going quietly in these final few games.
Celebrini exploded offensively against the Minnesota Wild, notching two assists and, even more importantly, the rare rookie hat trick.
The feat was the buzz of the NHL, with even the league’s Twitter account taking notice. Celebrini’s game put him in among just a handful of eighteen-year-olds league-wide and the only 18-year-old on the Sharks’ team to ever score five points in a game.
What’s more, Celebrini was the first number one overall pick to score a hat trick in his rookie season since Auston Matthews did it in 2016. That’s right; even Connor Bedard missed that milestone.
Calder race changing picture
The impressive performance by the 18-year-old Celebrini led some to wonder if the Calder race has changed.
Which had us wondering exactly how the numbers look this morning.
The five-point night made a huge difference in the Calder race. Prior to the April 9 game, Celebrini was third in the rookie scoring race behind Michkov and Hutson.
| Place | Player | Points | Points/Game |
| 1 | Lane Hutson | 64 | 0.821 |
| 2 | Matvei Michkov | 58 | 0.773 |
| 3 | Macklin Celebrini | 57 | 0.877 |
After April 9, not only did Celebrini jump above Michkov in actual points, but he made a bigger leap in his points per game over both of the other rookies.
| Place | Player | Points | Points/Game |
| 1 | Lane Hutson | 64 | 0.821 |
| 2 | Macklin Celebrini | 62 | 0.939 |
| 3 | Matvei Michkov | 59 | 0.776 |
Given that everyone is about even in points, the points per game might matter a bit more. Celebrini is more than .16 points per game better than Michkov and more than .11 points per game better than Hutson in the rookie scoring race.
Where the points come from matters
The three goals scored by Celebrini last night might also make Calder voters think twice. It brings Celebrini’s total goals to 24, meaning that at the moment, he’s tied with Michkov in rookie goal-scoring. Hutson trails far behind with just six goals, but that’s to be expected, considering that he’s a defenseman.
When I threw together a look at Hutson vs. Celebrini a few weeks ago, there were some that argued that the primary assists versus secondary assists mattered. This is what the numbers look like in all situations according to Evolving-Hockey.
| Player | Goals | Primary Assists | Secondary Assists | % of Assists that are Primary Assists |
| Lane Hutson | 6 | 25 | 32 | 43.86% |
| Macklin Celebrini | 24 | 18 | 20 | 47.37% |
| Matvei Michkov | 24 | 20 | 15 | 57.14% |
Interestingly, in all situations, it’s Michkov that’s leading in the primary assists compared to secondary assists statistic.
Another consideration is when those points occur. For example, is it on the power play or at even strength?
| Player | Total Points | Power Play Points | Even-Strength Points | % of Points at Even-Strength |
| Lane Hutson | 64 | 25 | 39 | 60.94% |
| Macklin Celebrini | 62 | 21 | 41 | 66.13% |
| Matvei Michkov | 59 | 15 | 44 | 74.58% |
According to NHL.com, as of April 9, Michkov is also way ahead of both Celebrini and Hutson in the points at even-strength category. Nearly 75% of Michkov’s points have come at even-strength this season.
Conclusion
With his five-point game, Celebrini has made the Calder race more interesting, but the truth is that there is still a ton of competition. Not only is he battling a rookie defenseman in the middle of a statistically exceptional season, but he’s also faced with a rookie forward who, in the final stretch of the season, is close to him in points. That’s not even counting the goaltender, Dustin Wolf, who’s trying to get his team into the playoffs.
Celebrini has given Sharks fans hope, but much like the season that Logan Couture lost out to Jeff Skinner, Sharks fans should take solace in the fact that winning a Calder Trophy by no means guarantees that one player will have a better career than another.
