The prospect pool is perhaps the only thing worth celebrating after the most difficult season in San Jose Sharks history. At Fear the Fin, we decided to go through each of the Sharks’ top prospects and examine their season and their potential ceilings.
The ratings borrow from the (now-defunct) Hockey’s Future levels and are as follows:
10 — Generational player
These are players that define their eras. They can turn around franchises in the blink of an eye and can drag even the most mediocre of players to stardom. Examples include Wayne Gretzky, Sidney Crosby, Bobby Orr, and Connor McDavid.
9 — Elite NHL Player
These are players who are the standard-setters for the rest of the league. They’re not in the generational tier, but they’re usually Hall-of-Fame players who can function as the cornerstone of a Stanley Cup contender. Examples include Joe Thornton, Steve Yzerman, Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, and Nathan MacKinnon.
8 — NHL All Star
These players are vital as complements to the franchise centerpieces. They’re all-star players who can drive play on their own line or dominate with other superstars. Examples include Patrick Marleau, Nick Suzuki, William Nylander, Joe Pavelski, Aaron Ekblad, Brady Tkachuk, and Clayton Keller.
7 — Very Good NHLer
These are not the superstars on a team, but they’re almost as important. At their best, these players are the complements to the all-stars, usually taking up a spot on the wings in the top-six or the second pairing. They might have a year or two of all-star production, especially when paired with the superstars, but they’re usually just a cut below. Examples include Reilly Smith, Mike Hoffman, Devon Toews, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
6 — Middling NHLer
These are the players who act as “tweeners.” Think of literally any middle-six or bottom-four NHL player, like Fabian Zetterlund, Jason Demers, or Kevin Labanc.
5 — Depth NHLer
These players are the depth pieces that every team needs…at the right price. They’re third or fourth-line players, or bottom-pairing defensemen. Think of players like Chris Tierney, Matt Benning, or Nico Sturm.
4 — Fringe NHLer
A depth player who might spend some time bouncing between the AHL and NHL. Think of players like Ryan Carpenter.
(Grades 1-3 are for players who will primarily play in the minors. For the sake of brevity, we’ll exclude their exact definitions, but suffice to say that if those guys are ever on an NHL roster for an extended period of time, you’re not winning many games)
Prospects are also graded on an A-F likelihood scale, with A meaning “almost certain to reach their potential” and “F” meaning “almost certain to not reach their potential, or anything close to it”. This helps us account for both ceiling and a prospect’s likelihood of reaching it.
Will Smith (Center — 2023, 4th overall)
2023-24 team: Boston College (NCAA)
2023-24 stats: 41 games, 71 points (25 G/46 A)
Season Grade: A
Prospect Grade: 8.0 B
By any measure, Smith has surpassed all possible expectations for this season, with a record-setting 71 points in just 41 games. He often looked like Boston College’s best player and was perhaps their most potent offensive weapon, frequently outshining Ryan Leonard, Gabe Perreault, and Hobey Baker finalist Cutter Gauthier. Perhaps most hearteningly for the Sharks, Smith seemed to grow into his game as the year went on, with a stunning 48 points in his last 24 games. The only thing stopping Smith from earning an A+ grade were his occasional defensive lapses and his dud performance in the finals of the NCAA Frozen Four against Denver (though, to be fair, he was far from the only player on his team to have an off night during that game).
Smith projects as a potential 80-90 point center in the league at his peak and could be a perennial all-star. With a blistering shot, an incredible hockey brain, and puck skills that would already rival or surpass those of many current NHLers, the Sharks’ superstar prospect could pair well with Macklin Celebrini and form one of the most potent 1-2 combinations in the NHL in the years to come. He’s clearly outgrown college hockey, and with general manager Mike Grier publicly stating that both him and Celebrini are ready to play in the NHL, Sharks fans could see them both play together as soon as next year.
Luca Cagnoni (Defense — 2023, 123rd overall)
2023-24 team: Portland Winterhawks (AHL)
2023-24 stats: 65 games, 90 points (18 G/72 A)
Season Grade: A+
Prospect Grade: 7.5 C
There’s no argument to be made that Cagnoni is a better prospect than Will Smith, but the reason he’s graded at an A+ is that I’m not sure anyone could have asked for a better season than this from the diminutive defenseman. He was one of the offensive leaders on a dynamic Portland team and frequently pulled off highlight-reel passes and end-to-end rushes that left onlookers flabbergasted. His shot, his excellent skating and his crisp passes mean that he’ll very likely find a home on an NHL power-play at some point, and he plays bigger than he looks, with a frame that is as surprisingly robust as it is shifty.
At just 5’9”, there continue to be a lot of questions asked about Cagnoni’s frame, but his play this year suggested that his ability on both sides of the puck is just too good to dismiss. His points-per-game put him 2nd among all WHL defensemen, with only Columbus’ 2022 first-rounder Denton Mateychuk finishing ahead of him. It looks more likely than ever that Cagnoni makes the NHL, and I reckon he’d have a good chance at going in the second round of a 2023 redraft at the moment.
Quentin Musty (Left Wing — 2023, 26th overall)
2023-24 team: Sudbury Wolves (OHL)
2023-24 stats: 53 games, 102 points (43 G/59 A)
Season Grade: A-
Prospect Grade: 7.0 B
Despite being taken in the late first round, where the Sharks have typically drafted players like Charlie Coyle, Nikolay Goldobin, Ozzy Wiesblatt and Lukas Kaspar, Quentin Musty’s statistical profile and post-draft production has tracked with that of a top-10 pick. Blessed with an imposing frame with which to wield his immense offensive firepower, Musty led the entirety of the OHL in points per game this year, with 102 points in just 53 games. His production ticked up towards the end of the season, with the Sudbury superstar going on an absolute bender to end the year, but his grade stays at an A- because of his relatively underwhelming performance in the playoffs (10 points in 8 games).
Musty will almost certainly be in the professional leagues next year — neither him, the OHL, nor the Sharks are going to get anything worthwhile from keeping him around in Sudbury to bully lower-level opposition. But he’s too young for the AHL, and so unless they loan him to an overseas club, it is very likely that the Sharks simply keep him up with the big club next year, assuming he earns a spot in training camp. Given his outstanding camp performance last year, though, that seems like a decent bet. He profiles as a solid top-six winger at his peak.
Shakir Mukhamadullin (Defense — 2020, 20th overall)
2023-24 team: San Jose Barracuda (AHL), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
2023-24 stats: 56 games, 35 points (7 G/28 A) [AHL + NHL]
Season Grade: B
Prospect Grade: 7.0 B
Mukhamadullin had a good season, with the 6’4” defender being arguably the only promising thing that the Sharks could look forward to on next season’s blue line. With an incredible one-timer and an excellent reach that helps him dispossess opponents quickly, the former New Jersey first-rounder was a beacon of hope for much of the year on an ailing Barracuda club. His improvement has been fascinating to watch, and a defender that once looked like an incredibly raw prospect now looks ready to jump full-time into the NHL next season. He could be a fixture on the Sharks’ top-four for a decade to come, and could even potentially play on the top pairing with another star.
Filip Bystedt (Center — 2022, 27th overall)
2023-24 team: Linköping H.C (SHL), San Jose Barracuda (AHL)
2023-24 stats: 55 games, 24 points (11 G/13 A) [SHL + AHL]
Season Grade: C+
Prospect Grade: 6.5 C
Bystedt is a promising prospect with a great frame and a lot of physical tools, but his play this year further reinforced the notion that he doesn’t have the offensive ability to be a top-six forward. With Linköping, he failed to make the offensive strides that the Sharks had hoped for, and he frequently found himself shut down during the World Juniors, where his play took a significant step back from last season without Leo Carlsson next to him. But he lit up the AHL in the brief time he spent with the Barracuda, with 7 points in 8 games for the Sharks’ affiliate, and that’s what raises his grade from a C to a C+.
He profiles as a decent third-line center who might be able to play on the power play’s second unit in a flash. For the Sharks, though, that’s probably all they’ll need, and it would still represent a very good return on a player drafted in the late first round of a rather weak draft.
David Edstrom (Center — 2023, 32nd overall)
2023-24 team: Frolünda H.C. (SHL)
2023-24 stats: 44 games, 19 points (7 G/12 A)
Season Grade: B
Prospect Grade: 6.0 B
A promising two-way center, Edstrom was arguably the main return the Sharks received in the Tomas Hertl trade. He had a very decent year with Frolünda and continued his momentum in their playoff run, with 6 points in 14 games. Between Edstrom and Bystedt, I’d probably lean towards Edstrom as the better prospect at the moment, but there’s still not enough offense there to suggest that he could become a genuine top-six center.
But he has the potential to be a very good third-line center with offensive pop, and he has the discipline and the skillset to both kill penalties and play on the power play. Edstrom would provide invaluable depth to the next contending iteration of the Sharks, and is the type of player that general managers would die to acquire.
Daniil Gushchin (Right Wing — 2020, 7th overall)
2023-24 team: San Jose Barracuda (AHL), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
2023-24 statistics: 60 games, 56 points (21 G/35 A) [AHL + NHL]
Season Grade: A
Prospect Grade: 6.0 B
Gushchin was the spark for an anemic Barracuda offense, and his consistency was rewarded with a brief NHL callup, where he had a goal and an assist in four games and largely looked at home despite the level of competition he faced. He’s got an excellent buzz to his game, is solid in transition, harries the opposition on the backcheck, and has a surprising amount of offensive skill.
Every profile done on Gushchin suggests that he has the right attitude to pair with his attributes, and his year-over-year improvement suggests a player far more likely than not to eventually maximize his abilities. He reminds me a lot of a younger Joe Pavelski, and while I’d never suggest he could become anything like what the former Sharks captain was, I do think there’s a quality middle-six NHLer to be found here.
Kasper Halttunen (Right Wing — 2023, 36th overall)
2023-24 team: London Knights (OHL)
2023-24 stats: 57 games, 61 points (32 G/29 A)
Season Grade: B-
Prospect Grade: 6.0 D
Halttunen is perhaps the most confusing prospect I can find in the Sharks’ pool. Watching him, it is immediately obvious as to why every scout is enamored with him — his shot is already NHL-caliber, and I can’t think of too many goalies that would enjoy facing a power play unit with him camping out near the faceoff circle. He used this to great effect in the OHL playoffs, powering the London Knights to an OHL championship with 17 goals in 18 games (including 8 in the last three).
The trouble with Halttunen is that I don’t see too much else, and this season didn’t really do anything to change my mind. A lot of his goals came on a powerful London power play on the back of a truly incredible shot, but his even-strength play and production alike left a lot to be desired. He’s a very raw prospect who will likely need considerable seasoning in the AHL before making the NHL, though his pure goalscoring instincts mean that he will almost certainly get a crack at the top level eventually. He’s significantly bigger than the majority of players in the OHL, but his size advantage will fade as he gets to the NHL.
He could become a very good bottom-six forward for the Sharks while filling out the second power play unit. The best case for him would be turning into a player similar to what Lawson Crouse is today. But he simply doesn’t have the offensive IQ that players like Andrew Cristall do, and I still think San Jose would have been better served going for someone like that in the early second round last year.
Jack Thompson (Defense — 2020, 93rd overall)
2023-24 team: Syracuse Crunch/San Jose Barracuda (AHL), Tampa Bay Lightning/San Jose Sharks (NHL)
2023-24 statistics: 65 games, 41 points (6 G, 35 A) [AHL + NHL]
Season Grade: B-
Prospect Grade: 6.0 C
Thompson is the core piece that the Sharks received in the Anthony Duclair trade, and it’s difficult to be upset with the haul. He’s a good prospect who was one of the top players in the Tampa Bay farm system, and a player who is on track to be a solid third-pairing defender, much like Henry Thrun. He struggled a bit initially after coming over to San Jose, but his improvement on both sides of the ice towards the end of the season was nice. If he doesn’t make the NHL, he’ll start the 2024-25 season as a defensive leader for the Barracuda.
Collin Graf (Right Wing — free agent)
2023-24 team: Quinnipiac University (NCAA), San Jose Sharks (NHL)
2023-24 statistics: 41 games, 51 points (22 G/29 A) [NCAA + NHL]
Season Grade: B+
Prospect Grade: 5.5 C
Graf had another spectacular season with Quinnipiac, and he parlayed it into an NHL opportunity with the Sharks, with more than 20 teams calling him to tender some kind of offer. Graf should become a depth NHLer in the league, and has the potential to be more than that if all breaks well for him, but he’s more of a guy who does a lot of things decently rather than doing any one thing exceptionally well. But he has great offensive instincts, and he was the offensive leader for a Quinnipiac team that probably overperformed its talent level. He projects as a good third-line forward if all goes well, but I marked him up a bit because I think he could do a bit more than that.
Cameron Lund (Center — 2022, 34th overall)
2023-24 team: Northeastern University (NCAA)
2023-24 statistics: 35 games, 30 points (11 G/19 A)
Season Grade: B
Prospect Grade: 5.5 C
Lund’s play in the earlier parts of the season was spectacular at times, with the 6’2” center single-handedly carrying his team to a victory over Will Smith’s Boston College with an eye-popping hat-trick. That represented the peak for him, though, and his play faded down the stretch for a dismal Northeastern team. Between his production and his physical tools, there’s enough there to suggest that Lund probably will become an NHLer one day, and that it’s more of a question of “when” rather than if. But I think it’ll be as a depth piece on a good team, and that he’ll be a very good third-line winger, possibly next to Bystedt or Edstrom.
Eric Pohlkamp (Defense — 2023, 132nd overall)
2023-24 team: Bemidji State (NCAA)
2023-24 statistics: 32 games, 24 points (11 goals, 13 assists)
Season Grade: A+
Prospect Grade: 5.0 C
Pohlkamp was perhaps the most surprising riser in the prospect pool. An unheralded 5th-round pick, he had a breakout season at Bemidji State, with 24 points in 32 games, and his play this season earned him both a callup to the United States’ World Junior squad and a transfer to the University of Denver, the 2024 national champions.
Pohlkamp has a wonderful shot and hits surprisingly hard despite a 5’11” frame, and he looks like he could be a great depth defenseman. His A+ grade comes from the fact that there’s really nothing more that could have been expected of a 5th-round pick in his first post-draft year.
Mattias Havelid (Defense — 2022, 45th overall)
2023-24 team: Linköping H.C (SHL)
2023-24 statistics: 43 games, 12 points (2 G/10 A)
Season Grade: B
Prospect Grade: 5.0 C
I’m lower on Havelid than most — I see a player who has the potential to be a good depth piece if everything goes right, but there’s not enough offense in his game to stand out, and his frame is simply too small to expect coaches to give him much of a rope in the NHL. He’s solid all around, though, and had a very nice sophomore season with Linköping while outshining Bystedt at the World Junior Championship. If everything breaks well for him, he could theoretically become a third-pairing defender for an NHL club, though I wouldn’t bank on that myself.
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I couldn’t include Thomas Bordeleau, William Eklund, or Henry Thrun on this list because they don’t qualify as prospects any longer, but for transparency, I’d have rated Bordeleau at 6.0 B, Eklund at 7.5 B, and Thrun at 5.5 B (there’s less uncertainty in their projections, given that they’re already full-time NHLers).
If it looks like the Sharks have a lot of depth prospects, you’re correct —the franchise has potentially the best pool in the NHL when it comes to depth, but their star power is a bit lacking. Macklin Celebrini (who would probably be a 9.0 B at the top of this list) should go a long way towards fixing this, though, along with whomever they get with the 14th overall pick.
