There’s not a lot to talk about this time of year, but we figured now is as good a time as any to toss out some talking points and maybe stir up some debate. As the San Jose Sharks’ season nears, the Sharks are starting out with a clean slate, and that means a reason to hope. While this might be a bit of an understatement, the Sharks have not done well the past few seasons. But that could change this season. Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith are now entering their sophomore seasons, and barring a sophomore slump, they should take a step forward. William Eklund is looking to establish himself as a bona fide top-six forward in the NHL. Sam Dickinson and Michael Misa are both looking to show that they belong in the NHL. Then, there’s Yaroslav Askarov, who will have his first shot at showing that he’s the NHL starting goaltender he believes himself to be. When you put it all together, you get a young Sharks team that could make some waves and be a tough out for any of the teams in the league this season. And we haven’t even mentioned the veterans like Tyler Toffoli, Dmitry Orlov, John Klingberg and Alex Wennberg who offer supporting help and scoring touches to guide these young players the right way.
But, of course, this is all speculation. The real measuring stick will not be where the Sharks finish in the league this season as much as how it stacks up against the Sharks’ teams of the past few seasons. So, in this edition of Fear the Five, we’re going to do some predictions and guess how much better the Sharks will do compared to five of last season’s stats.
Days until the team’s first win
In the 2023-24 season, the Sharks didn’t win the team’s first game until Nov. 7, 2023 — 27 days into the season. A 0-10-1 record to start things out certainly didn’t help matters. In the 2024-25 season, the Sharks showed slight improvement. It only took 18 days to notch the team’s first win, on Oct. 26, 2024.
The Sharks start this season on Oct. 9 against the Vegas Golden Knights. It’s a bit much to hope that San Jose wins the first game of the season, but stranger things have been known to happen, and it would be fun to see because, as we know, F*** Vegas.
More realistically, the best shot for San Jose’s first win might be two nights later against the Anaheim Ducks on Oct. 11. Anaheim will be going with young Lucas Dostal in net, and the weight of being THE GUY for Anaheim might be a bit much for Dostal now that the Ducks have finally traded John Gibson.
While The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn believes the Ducks improved this offseason, adding Mikael Granlund and Chris Kreider, he doesn’t believe that the Ducks are the most improved team. That honor goes to the Sharks, and given that the Sharks won the last time these two teams met in April when Celebrini and Smith’s powers were starting to peak, it could be argued that San Jose has a very slight edge.
We’re guessing that it takes just three days into this year’s season for the Sharks to earn this team’s first win. Celebrini, Smith and Eklund will make it a reality.
Even if San Jose doesn’t beat its Pacific Division foe to start the season, the Sharks have some other winnable games in the first half of October. Oct. 18 against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Oct. 21 against the New York Islanders are also options for the team’s first win. We can see San Jose winning one or both of those games, still setting San Jose on a better trajectory than it has been the last few seasons.
Prediction: 3 days until the team’s first win
Points at American Thanksgiving break
There is a theory that a team’s standing at American Thanksgiving is a good indication of where the team will be come playoff time. So this seems like a measuring stick in the season to take a look at where the Sharks might stand in comparison to the rest of the league.
For the last two seasons, the Sharks weren’t in good shape at American Thanksgiving. On Nov. 23, 2023, the Sharks were last in the league with 7 points (yikes!) and a 3-15-1 record. On Nov. 28, 2024, the Sharks were 30th in the league, a slight improvement, with 19 points and a 7-13-5 record. Just two points separated the Sharks from 23rd, and four points separated the team from 18th.
We’re not arguing that the Sharks will be in the playoff race come American Thanksgiving. That’s a bit much to hope given the team’s makeup this season. But we do think that the Sharks could be in the 20 – 24 point range come American Thanksgiving and even be middle of the pack among NHL teams.
The Sharks will have to work for it to pull off a better start to the season. Half of the team’s first 24 games are against teams that made the playoffs last season — Vegas, Carolina, New Jersey (x2), Los Angeles (x2), Minnesota (x2), Colorado, Winnipeg, Florida and Ottawa. There are also seven games against potential playoff teams — Utah (x2), Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Detroit, Calgary and Boston.
The Sharks will do better about winning the winnable games and will also win some of those close ones that the team let slip through its fingers early on. Look for San Jose to be in the middle of the pack come American Thanksgiving.
Prediction: 23 points by American Thanksgiving
Points percentage for the season
As we’ve said before, we don’t believe that the Sharks are going to make the playoffs. That said, the team will make things interesting throughout the season, and as the season winds down, look for San Jose to end things on a high note.
With the three-point system in the league, points percentage might be the better way to measure the team’s success. In 2023-24, the Sharks finished with a dismal .287%. There was an improvement last season, where the team finished with a .317%.
While there are likely to be continued growing pains in 2025-26, the additions of two quality puck-moving defensemen in Orlov and Klingberg, the growth of the younger players and the additions of other skilled players like Misa and Dickinson should mean more wins for the Sharks this season compared to last.
It’s a complete shot in the dark, but we’re guessing the Sharks break the .400% points percentage mark this season.
Prediction: .453% or thereabouts
Final standing in the NHL
And that leads to the next question. Where will the Sharks end the season? Most fans will agree that the Sharks won’t finish in the basement of the NHL, where the team has been in the past two seasons. It’s time to take a step forward. It’s just a question of how much further the team will go. So, just how far will the Sharks jump in the standings?
Since we’re making crazy bold predictions, we’re taking a shot here…
Prediction: Sharks finish 27th in the NHL.
Goal differential for the season
Even though the Sharks won’t win many games this season, we predict that the team will be in a lot more close games. There won’t be as many of those blowouts as there were last season. The good news for Sharks fans is that 2023-24 appears to have been rock bottom for the team. The minus-146 goal differential was, fingers crossed, the worst of it. The minus-102 goal differential in 2024-25 was an improvement. We suspect that the team will do even better this season.
With a rookie netminder and a goaltender who is NHL backup caliber, the Sharks are going to be okay in the net. Up front, the top six will offer a scoring punch with players like Celebrini, Smith, Toffoli, Eklund, Wennberg and potentially Misa. On the backend, there will be Orlov and Klingberg to move the puck. There is enough there to put the puck in the net and enough on the backend to keep the puck out of the net. Even the Philadelphia Flyers, which had the worst goaltending in the league last season, ended with a minus-48 goal differential. It is within the realm of reason to believe that the Sharks will take another step forward with a full season of a confident Smith, a healthy Celebrini and a stronger defense and make another jump in goal differential.
Prediction: Sharks finish the season with a minus-45 goal differential.
Conclusion
Just like last season, the Sharks are going to turn some heads and, hopefully, take that next step toward becoming a Stanley Cup contender once again. We don’t envision this Sharks team making the playoffs. But there is certainly hope for optimism as a Sharks fan and we believe that these markers will show it by seasons.
Drop your predictions below, we’d love to hear what you think.
