Since the turn of the century, the Calder Trophy has been won by three goaltenders, five defensemen and 16 forwards. This season, there are three top contenders for the prize as we near the final quarter of the season. One is a defender, Lane Hutson, with the Montreal Canadiens. Another is a goaltender, Dustin Wolf, with the Calgary Flames. Then there’s the San Jose Sharks’ best hope, forward Macklin Celebrini.
With three such different positions – goaltender, forward and defenseman – it’s difficult to compare apples to apples. Each player has a different role and responsibilities on the ice for their team. Each player has excelled in their roles, but how do you know if one is doing a “better” job than the other? It’s a difficult question that the Calder voters will have to mull over soon.
That said, one of the best predictors of future behavior is the past, and since it seems like the default setting for most voters is to go with the player with the most points, i.e., a forward, looking at exactly what goaltenders do to beat out those forwards might be a better way to look at this year’s Calder race. So, in this article, let’s look at what Wolf would have to do to beat Celebrini in the Calder voting.
Goaltenders who have won the Calder race
The three goaltenders who won the Calder Trophy since the 1999-00 season are San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov (2000-01), Boston’s Andrew Raycroft (2003-04) and Columbus’ Steve Mason (2008-09).
Looking at the races in each of these seasons, there are a few things we can learn.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Evgeni Nabokov | 50 | 32-21-7 record, 2.19 GAA, .915 Sv% |
| 2 | Brad Richards | 9 | 62 pts (21 G, 41 A) |
| 3 | Martin Havlat | 2 | 42 pts (19 G, 23 A) |
In Nabokov’s 2000-01 season, the young netminder nabbed 32 of the team’s 40 wins and helped the Sharks secure a spot in the playoffs. Second-place finisher Brad Richards and the Tampa Bay Lightning missed the playoffs that season. At the same time, third-place finisher Martin Havlat and the Ottawa Senators won their division but were ousted in the first round.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Andrew Raycroft | 93 | 29-18-9 record, 2.05 GAA, .926 Sv% |
| 2 | Michael Ryder | 11 | 63 pts (25 G, 38 A) |
| 3 | Trent Hunter | 1 | 51 pts (25 G, 26 A) |
In Raycroft’s 2003-04 season, the netminder barely missed breaking the 30-win marker. That said, he won 29 of the Bruins’ 41 wins and helped lead Boston to a second-place finish in the Eastern Conference. Michael Ryder and the Montreal Canadiens also made the playoffs, and Ryder finished the season with .778 points per game.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Steve Mason | 121 | 33-20-7 record, 2.29 GAA, .916 Sv% |
| 2 | Bobby Ryan | 9 | 57 pts (31 G, 26 A) |
| 3 | Kris Versteeg | 1 | 53 pts (22 G, 31 A) |
Goaltender Mason led the Blue Jackets to the team’s first-ever appearance in the playoffs in 2008-09, which likely gave him an edge. He also completed his season with more than 30 wins, securing 33 of the Blue Jackets’ 41 wins that season. Of course, the fact that neither Bobby Ryan nor Kris Versteeg broke the 60-point mark also helped to secure the spot.
30 wins and a playoff appearance
30 wins and a trip to the playoffs seem to be the rule for goaltenders hoping to win the Calder Trophy in their first season in the league. Even though Raycroft was just below the 30-win mark, his still claimed a majority of Boston’s wins that season and his goals against average and save percentage were markedly better than both Nabokov and Mason.
In 2007-08, Carey Price finished fourth in Calder trophy voting despite helping the Montreal Canadiens win the Northeast Division and finish first in the Eastern Conference.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Patrick Kane | 71 | 72 pts (21 G, 51 A) |
| 2 | Nicklas Backstrom | 30 | 69 pts (14 G, 55 A) |
| 3 | Jonathan Toews | 19 | 54 pts (24 G, 30 A) |
| 4 | Carey Price | 11 | 24-12-3 record, 2.56 GAA, .920 Sv% |
The fact that Price was in the net for just 24 wins and accounted for slightly over half of the team’s 47 wins that season — Cristobal Huet shared the netminding duties with Price — is likely why the then-rookie for the Canadiens finished fourth in the voting.
There’s also the 2018-19 season, where Jordan Binnington finished second behind Elias Pettersson in the Calder voting.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Elias Pettersson | 151 | 66 pts (28 G, 38 A) |
| 2 | Jordan Binnington | 18 | 24-5-1 record, 1.89 GAA, .927 Sv% |
| 3 | Rasmus Dahlin | 1 | 44 pts (9 G, 35 A) |
Binnington took the St. Louis Blues from one of the worst teams in the league to the playoffs and then helped the Blues win the Stanley Cup that season. Just the same, his 24-5-1 record and sub-2 goals against average were not enough to help him win the Calder Trophy.
24 wins just doesn’t seem to cut it with Calder voters.
In the 2020-21 season, Carolina’s Alex Nedeljkovic finished third in the Calder voting but did not receive a single first-place vote.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Kirill Kaprizov | 99 | 51 pts (27 G, 24 A) |
| 2 | Jason Robertson | 1 | 45 pts (17 G, 28 A) |
| 3 | Alex Nedeljkovic | 0 | 15-5-3 record, 1.90 GAA, .932 Sv% |
Similar to Price and Binnington, Nedeljkovic’s numbers were solid, but his lack of play likely hurt his chances of winning. Nedeljkovic took his team to the Stanley Cup playoffs. However, like Price, he didn’t win the majority of the team’s games. Carolina won 36 games that season and finished first in the Central Division. Nedeljkovic shared the net mostly with James Reimer, who also won 15 games.
In the 2022-23, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner came in second in the Calder voting after finishing a season just below that 30-win mark.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Matty Beniers | 160 | 57 pts (24 G, 33 A) |
| 2 | Stuart Skinner | 24 | 29-14-5 record, 2.75 GAA, .913 Sv% |
| 3 | Owen Power | 9 | 35 pts (4 G, 31 A) |
Despite winning 29 games, Skinner’s wins were barely half of his team’s 50 wins that season. That, plus the fact that Skinner was 24 years old compared to Matty Beniers, who was 20, likely helped Beniers secure the win.
Youth versus experience
And that seems to be another key factor that voters take into mind. A younger skater, someone who is still a teenager, appears to get much more credit for his performance in the NHL than an older goaltender. Look, for example, at the 2009-10 season, when Tyler Myers beat out Jimmy Howard for the Calder Trophy.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Tyler Myers | 94 | 48 pts (11 G, 37 A) |
| 2 | Jimmy Howard | 24 | 37-15-10 record, 2.26 GAA, .924 Sv% |
| 3 | Matt Duchene | 12 | 55 pts (24 G, 31 A) |
| 4 | Tuukka Rask | 2 | 22-12-5 record, 1.97 GAA, .931 Sv% |
Myers was 19 when he won the trophy. He turned 19 midseason on Feb. 1. Howard, on the other hand, turned 26 in March of that season. While it was considered his “rookie” season, Howard played his first NHL game with the Red Wings in 2005-2006. He played four games for the Red Wings that season and then returned to the AHL. In 2007-08, Howard was called back up to the NHL for four games. He also played one NHL game in 2008-09.
While the 37 wins put Howard above the 19-year-old forward Matt Duchene in the voting, it was not enough for him to surpass the 19-year-old defenseman Myers.
Looking at the next season, 2010-11, you can see that, once again, a goalie that had more than 30 wins did not win the race.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Jeff Skinner | 71 | 63 pts (31 G, 32 A) |
| 2 | Logan Couture | 41 | 56 pts (32 G, 24 A) |
| 3 | Michael Grabner | 6 | 52 pts (34 G, 18 A) |
| 4 | Corey Crawford | 6 | 33-18-6 record, 2.30 GAA, .917 Sv% |
In the 2010-11 season, it was 18-year-old Jeff Skinner who beat out then-21-year-old Logan Couture for the Calder Trophy. Coming in fourth in the voting was Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford, who was 26 years old at the time. While the Blackhawks made the playoffs and Crawford contributed to 33 of the team’s 44 wins, his age and experience seemed to be a knock against him in the Calder voting. Crawford played two games for the Blackhawks in 2005-06, five games in 2007-08 and one game in 2009-10 before making his case for the Calder Trophy in 2010-11.
In 2016-17, even though Matt Murray was 22 which was young for a goaltender in the NHL, his 32 wins, second-place finish in the Metropolitan Division and previous season’s Stanley Cup win still kept him out of the top three in Calder voting.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Auston Matthews | 164 | 69 pts (40 G, 29 A) |
| 2 | Patrik Laine | 3 | 64 pts (36 G, 28 A) |
| 3 | Zach Werenski | 0 | 47 pts (11 G, 36 A) |
| 4 | Matt Murray | 0 | 32-10-4 record, 2.41 GAA, .923 Sv% |
Murray was surpassed in votes by a trio of 19-year-olds. Auston Matthews beat Patrik Laine and Zach Werenski to win the Calder that season. Odds are, Murray’s experience, 13 games in the 2015-16 season and 21 playoff games was enough to keep him on the outside looking in.
The one outlier
Of course, there always has to be one case where all of those previous rules don’t seem to matter. That’s what happened in 2005-06 when there was just too much talent to overcome.
At the end of the season, Henrik Lundqvist finished outside of the Calder voting (4th place) after backstopping 30 of his team’s 44 wins that season. The Rangers made the playoffs and Lundqvist was a “true” rookie, having never played an NHL game until that season.
That said, an incredible influx of talent kept Lundqvist out of the mix.
| Place | Player | 1st Place Votes | Stats |
| 1 | Alex Ovechkin | 124 | 106 pts (52 G, 54 A) |
| 2 | Sidney Crosby | 4 | 102 pts (39 G, 63 A) |
| 3 | Dion Phaneuf | 0 | 49 pts (20 G, 29 A) |
| 4 | Henrik Lundqvist | 1 | 30-12-9 record, 2.24 GAA, .922 Sv% |
How can Dustin Wolf beat Macklin Celebrini in the Calder race?
Some lines seem to stand out when it comes to goaltenders who have won the Calder Trophy or at least received a good number of votes in the race.
First, 30 wins is some kind of magical line for goalies. You get extra credit if your team makes the NHL playoffs. Another extra credit point for exactly how many of your team’s wins you can account for. 30 wins on a team that only wins 40 games in a season is much more impactful than 30 wins on a team that wins 50 games in a season.
For Wolf, as of March 11, he has 22 wins. With 19 games left to play this season, it’s hard to see him reaching that 30-win mark. He’s been splitting time with Dan Vladar on a 2-to-1 ratio, so he’s likely to only play 12-13 more games this season. He would have to win 75% of those games to reach 30 wins.
Wolf may get extra credit if he can push his team into one of the two wildcard spots in the Western Conference, but as of now, even that might not be enough.
Second, your age and experience matter to a point. The season Mason won the Calder Trophy was the same season he played his first NHL game. Nabokov had played 11 games just one season prior before his “rookie” season. That said, Howard couldn’t compete with a kid who was just drafted in Myers despite winning 37 games that season.
Wolf is 23 (he’ll be 24 on April 16), but he had some NHL games under his belt leading into this season. He made his NHL debut in 2022-23 and played one game. He played 17 NHL games in 2023-24, which might also hurt him in the Calder voting, especially because his two opponents are younger than him. With Celebrini being just 18, Wolf had an uphill battle to begin with.
Third, an absolutely explosive season from a forward will negate all of your stats. (See the 2005-06 race.)
This likely isn’t the case this season unless Celebrini or Hutson (or maybe even Matvei Michkov) suddenly find a whole new gear. That said, if the players simply produce at their current paces, it’s hard to see Wolf skating away with the Calder Trophy this season.
