Macklin Celebrini may not have enough to beat Lane Hutson in the Calder Trophy race

The Calder Trophy race appears to be down to three players: San Jose Sharks forward Macklin Celebrini, Montreal Canadiens defenseman Lane Hutson and Calgary Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf. The trouble is that each player plays a completely different position, which can give Calder voters different definitions of success and what is or is not Calder-worthy play.

In a previous post, we used history to explore exactly what level Wolf would need to reach in order to potentially beat Celebrini in the Calder race. (This all presumes that Celebrini continues on his scoring pace.) In this post, we’ll look at what Hutson would need to do to separate himself from the crowd and, most significantly to Sharks’ fans, beat Celebrini in this race.

Defensemen who have won the Calder Trophy since 2000

This is not the first time Calder voters have been asked to determine if a defenseman was more deserving of a Calder Trophy than a goaltender or forward. Since the 1999-2000 season, five defensemen have been named the top rookie of the season. They are Barret Jackman (2002-03), Tyler Myers (2009-10), Aaron Ekblad (2014-15), Cale Makar (2019-20) and Moritz Seider (2021-22).

In most of these races, there’s a 60-40 points rule that seems to stand. Forwards appear to need 60 points to win the Calder while defensemen need to reach 40 points. This is a generalization that we’ll explore in a moment.

But first, the outliers. Jackman and Ekblad both had special circumstances when they won their trophies.

Let’s start with the race that Ekblad was involved in, where age was likely the deciding factor.

As you can see, Ekblad’s numbers were good, but they weren’t exceptional, especially when compared to forwards Mark Stone and Johnny Gaudreau, who both broke 60 points. Ekblad came just short at 39 points. However, Ekblad was a “true” rookie that season. He was just 18 years old and playing in his first season post draft. Since Stone was 22 and Gaudreau was 21, age gave Ekblad the edge.

In Jackman’s case, his grit more than made up for his offense. Jackman only put up 19 points in his rookie season but was a plus-23 and had 190 PIMs.

With Henrik Zetterberg having a good, though not phenomenal season with the Detroit Red Wings, it was easy for voters to weigh those PIMs more heavily and give Jackman the award.

That said, 2002-03 was a much different time than now, where it seems that offensive contribution is a prerequisite to how “good” a defenseman is. In recent years, a Calder nominee must meet a certain threshold to be considered a candidate.

60 points for forwards, 40 points for defensemen

That’s where the aforementioned 60-40 rule comes in. In today’s Calder voting, there seems to be a distinct point line for Calder nominees and that line differs between forwards and defensemen.

In 2009-10, Tyler Myers won the award with 48 points, in part because Matt Duchene only had 55 points.

While Duchene’s points per game stat line was better than Myers, Duchene came in third place in Calder voting that season, seemingly because he did not put up what would be considered an exceptional season by a rookie forward, i.e., more than 60 points.

And that 60-point line is key.

In 2018-19, when Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson won the Calder Trophy, both he and Buffalo Sabres’ defenseman Rasmus Dahlin broke the invisible points threshold that Calder voters seem to have.

Pettersson put up 66 points, while Dahlin put up 44. Voters leaned towards Pettersson.

The same can be seen in 2016-17 when both Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine received more first-place Calder votes than defenseman Zach Werenski.

All three performed well for their respective positions, but the 60-plus points as a forward seemed to have more weight than the 40-plus points as a defenseman.

Perhaps the best proof of this unspoken 60-40 line is the 2015-16 Calder race. That’s the season that Artemi Panarin won the award with 77 points.

It’s not Panarin’s win that stands out, but what happened in spots two and three in the voting. Shayne Gostisbehere received more first-place votes than Connor McDavid even though McDavid scored more points than the defenseman and had a better points per game stat line than Gostisbehere. Note that McDavid didn’t break 60 points that season, while Gostisbehere broke 40 points.

Other examples include Connor Bedard’s win over Brock Faber last season:

And the way Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes both beat out Dominik Kubalik in the 2019-2020 Calder race.

Note: Our friends at Mile High Hockey explored the deeper numbers behind Makar’s win over Hughes if that’s something that you’re interested in.

50 points for a defenseman creates a whole new dynamic

That said, there is one way that a defenseman can negate the point production of a forward. That’s by surpassing the 50-point threshold. That’s what happened in 2021-22 when Moritz Seider beat both Trevor Zegras and Michael Bunting.

Both Zegras and Bunting passed 60 points for their seasons, but Seider just made the 50-point threshold. It seems as though that was all it took for Calder voters. Seider ran away with the award, garnering 170 first-place votes.

Part of this likely has to do with Seider’s place in Calder history. Fewer than 20 NHL rookie defensemen have surpassed 50 points, according to Stat Muse. By joining that elite company, which includes players like Larry Murphy, Chris Chelios, Gary Suter and Brian Leetch, Seider all but etched his name on the Calder Trophy.

Can Hutson beat Celebrini for the Calder Trophy?

And passing that 50-point mark will likely be enough to put Hutson over Celebrini in the Calder Trophy race.

Age can be a balancing factor, to a point. Celebrini will likely get some consideration because he’s an 18-year-old and Hutson is 21, but Hutson continues to climb that rookie scoring list in terms of points.

As of March 30, Hutson has 59 points in 73 games with the Montreal Canadiens. That’s better than the points totals that Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar put up in the 2019-2020 race. Hutson is currently in tenth place all-time in rookie defenseman scoring. If he continues on his current scoring pace, he will have approximately 67 points at the end of the season. That would push him past Phil Housely and put him in fourth all-time on the rookie defenseman scoring list, just behind Gary Suter.

That’s pretty elite company, and since Celebrini isn’t putting up a season like the one we saw in 2005-06 when Alexander Ovechkin beat Sidney Crosby 106 points to 104 points, it’s hard to see Celebrini beating Hutson in the Calder Trophy voting this season. Hutson’s offensive numbers may simply be too big to ignore.