Should the NHL Include OT in Tie Breakers?
***Update
So I ran the numbers for 2007-2010 and here are the correlations;
| Variables | Correlation |
|---|---|
| Reg to OT | -0.08 |
| Reg to SO | -0.05 |
| OT to SO | 0.10 |
Interesting that this year has shown such a strong correlation as compared to previous years.
By my account it seems reasonable. Should they include SO wins? No, definitely no.
Day late and probably more than a dollar short today. This is mostly a data dump for your viewing pleasure. I took a look at how teams have performed in regulation, SO, and OT. Nothing really amazing here. SO wins are basically a coin toss, and this is confirmed in the data that shows there is an insignificant correlation between regulation wins, or OT wins, to SO wins. I wasn't sure that OT wins was going to be that fantastic, but at 0.45, the correlation is much stronger than for SO wins. It's not as high as a split-half correlation of regulation wins, but I think it's high enough to justify including them for tie breaking purposes.
Here's the data in table form, note that the team values are a bit out of date. I think this data was pulled a couple weeks ago. AP = average points.
| Variables | Correlation |
|---|---|
| Reg to OT | 0.455545009 |
| Reg to SO | 0.151642047 |
| OT to SO | 0.164683056 |
| Team | Home Reg AP | Home OT AP | Home SO AP | Away Reg AP | Away OT AP | Away SO AP | Total Reg AP | Total OT AP | Total SO AP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1.10 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 0.94 | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| BOS | 1.13 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.07 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| BUF | 1.04 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.84 | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| CAR | 1.10 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.39 | 1.00 |
| CBJ | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.37 | 1.67 | 1.40 | 0.57 | 1.33 | 1.37 |
| CGY | 1.26 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.06 | 1.33 | 1.30 |
| CHI | 1.46 | 1.67 | 1.43 | 0.73 | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 1.46 | 1.71 |
| COL | 0.89 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 0.85 | 1.25 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 1.63 | 1.82 |
| DAL | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| DET | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 1.19 | 1.75 | 1.68 |
| EDM | 0.97 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 0.55 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 0.76 | 1.67 | 1.43 |
| FLA | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1.22 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 1.44 |
| L.A | 1.04 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 0.96 | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.58 | 1.35 |
| MIN | 0.92 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.62 | 1.50 | 1.44 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 1.47 |
| MTL | 0.72 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.79 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| N.J | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.70 | 1.04 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.02 | 1.80 | 1.85 |
| NSH | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.04 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.23 | 1.50 | 1.45 |
| NYI | 0.86 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.25 | 1.67 | 0.76 | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| NYR | 1.28 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.21 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.38 |
| OTT | 1.04 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.04 | 1.20 | 1.67 | 1.04 | 1.43 | 1.50 |
| PHI | 1.26 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.17 | 1.65 | 1.38 |
| PHX | 1.04 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 1.20 | 1.38 |
| PIT | 1.38 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.04 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 1.21 | 1.67 | 1.79 |
| S.J | 1.15 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.92 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 1.04 | 1.13 | 1.58 |
| STL | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.25 | 0.89 | 2.00 | 1.43 | 1.28 | 1.83 | 1.34 |
| T.B | 1.11 | 1.86 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 0.82 | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| TOR | 0.96 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0.62 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 0.79 | 1.50 | 1.46 |
| VAN | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.16 | 1.83 | 1.40 |
| WPG | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.42 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 0.90 | 1.45 | 1.40 |
| WSH | 1.23 | 1.86 | 1.33 | 0.73 | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.98 | 1.60 | 1.42 |
| Avg | 1.17 | 1.55 | 1.44 | 0.83 | 1.45 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |