With the Toronto Maple Leafs officially out of the playoffs, Toronto fans as well as management are understandably unhappy with the way the team exited the second round. There is a general consensus that this is the end of the so-called “Core Four” of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares. Marner and Tavares are the only players up for contract renewals, which has led many people to speculate that one, if not both, are on their way out of Toronto.
What that means for the rest of the league is that Marner is potentially the best forward available on July 1 when free agency starts. Many teams around the league will be angling to add him to their forward groups, and the San Jose Sharks could be one of them. After all, San Jose has the cap space and the space in the top-six forward group to get this deal done.
The question for the Sharks is not if San Jose can make a deal, but if it should.
Mitch Marner is a 100-point player
Marner had 102 points in 81 games this past season (27 G, 75 A). He logged 21:19 per game and has shot at more than 15% consistently over the past four seasons. He’s a very, very good player.
That said, Toronto fans will tell you the regular season doesn’t matter as much as the postseason, where Marner has been less than stellar. In the playoffs this season, Marner played 13 games and had 13 points. Most teams would kill for a point-per-game player in the postseason, but it was when Marner scored that mattered.
He did not register a point in the team’s 6-1 loss on Sunday night. He had five points in the seven-game series with the Panthers, and just one of those points was a goal. In other words, when the Maple Leafs needed Marner to pick the team up and carry them on his back, he was nowhere to be seen.
And that’s the story that will haunt him out of Toronto. Despite the fact that Marner has scored 63 points in 70 games in the playoffs and is a career plus-9, he hasn’t scored when the team needed it the most. In the past five postseasons, Marner has five points in nine elimination games.
Could or should the Sharks sign Marner?
For the Sharks, this playoff performance issue isn’t as big a deal as it might be for other teams. Remember that guy named Joe Thornton? Jumbo was run out of Boston because he wasn’t a “playoff performer.” He did pretty darn well for the Sharks and had some key plays in elimination games.
Cap room, as discussed before, is not an issue either. Marner is expected to earn about $14 million per season, something the Sharks could easily afford.
The biggest issue for the Sharks is likely the term.
This is the contract where Marner makes his money. It’s expected to carry him through until he’s 35. Yes, he made $10.9 million per season over the past six seasons, but this is the sweet spot for players like Marner. This is the big contract, the one with big money and long-term.
Which is why the Sharks should pass. Marner is going to want a seven-year deal, and the Sharks have no real reason to pay it. He doesn’t line up well with the team’s window to compete.
Timing is everything
As much as Sharks fans want to be optimistic, players like Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith are young. We’re talking too young to legally drink alcohol in America, young. These are players who have two or three years before they reach the skill level that will have them competing for a Stanley Cup, and the Sharks are operating on their timeline. Other than William Eklund, Celebrini and Smith are the tip of the iceberg for the Sharks’ rebuild, not the tail end.
San Jose still needs the pieces to fall into place around Celebrini and Smith. The defense is abysmal and will need a few more years before players like Sam Dickinson, Luca Cagnoni and perhaps another draft pick or two are ready to play in the NHL consistently.
While we like goaltender Yaroslav Askarov, he’s not going to be great out of the gate.
Marner is 28 years old. He will be 30 or 31 by the time the Sharks are ready to truly compete. San Jose will have burned three prime years of his contract simply ramping up for the playoffs. The team might get two or three more years after that, depending on Marner’s longevity in the league, but let’s be honest, no one can tell how a player will age.
Teams sign a 28-year-old like Marner to seven-year big-money contracts because they want those prime years to compete and then will eat the cost at the back end if it means going far in the playoffs on the front end.
That’s not where San Jose is at this point in time. San Jose is still rebuilding, and when Marner starts that slow, or possibly fast, decline in performance, San Jose will be saddled with a massive contract while also needing to hand out large deals to players like Eklund, Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson … the list goes on and on.
As much as adding Marner would jump-start the Sharks’ rebuild, it does not fit with this team at this time. Marner is a great player, and if he were 25 or 26 years old, the deal would be a no-brainer. But at 28, even if he just turned 28 a few weeks ago, Marner is better suited for a team looking to win now. The Sharks are not that team, and signing Marner would be a slippery path down the road to flipping the switch on the rebuild too quickly.
Hopefully, San Jose General Manager Mike Grier stays patient.
