Tomas Hertl 2023 player review: Looking for a new bottle of secret ooze

Whether it was a post-contract year slump or simply trying to be the best player on a bad team, Tomas Hertl had a tough season. The forward was exceptional on some nights and appeared to be struggling on others.

Hertl’s 2022-23 production

When we say Hertl had a tough season, that’s by first line forward standards. His numbers, on the outside, look good for the average NHL player.

63 points (22 G, 41 A) in 79 games is above league average. However, Hertl is supposed to be a top line center. By top line center standards, he’s not faring well.

This season, Hertl ranked 41st in points among centers in the NHL. That’s behind teammate Logan Couture (67 points). It’s also behind three St. Louis players (Jordan Kyrou – 73 points, Robert Thomas – 65 points, Brayden Schenn – 65 points) and three Vancouver Canucks players (Elias Pettersson – 102 points, J.T. Miller – 82 points, Bo Horvat – 70 points). (Note: I know that Horvat finished the season with the New York Islanders, but for the purposes of this exercise we’ll call him a Canuck.)

Both St. Louis and Vancouver were teams that missed the playoffs, yet they still had centers that performed better than Hertl this season.

Hertl’s defensive game was lacking

Interestingly, Hertl only scored one point more last season than he did this season. However, his game looked much better in 2021-22 than it did in 2022-23.

When you look Hertl’s regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) – a stat adjusted for things like zone starts, competition and other factors outside of the player’s control – you see that Hertl’s expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) this season was brutal. It was near the bottom of the league.

His actual plus-minus – the number of times he was on the ice when the other team scored at even strength – was minus-36, the worst of all the Sharks players. What’s more, that minus-36 put Hertl at fourth worst in the entire NHL.

The other number that stands out is his goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60). It was league average despite the fact that his expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) was above league average. The opportunities were there for Hertl; he just wasn’t converting on them.

Compare the 2022-23 season to the 2021-22 season and you see that’s the big difference in the power forward’s game.

In Hertl’s 2021-22 season, his xGF/60 was only slightly above league average. However, his GF/60 was well above that. Hertl was converting on chances that lesser forwards in the league could not convert on; he was doing what a team expects from a top line forward.

Catching up to the play

One of the interesting things about a team knocked out of the playoffs early in the season is that there’s time for introspection. When that April lockerroom clean out arrives, players have already had a chance to think about what went wrong and what they need to do differently next season.

Hertl is no different. During his April exit interview, Hertl admitted that the game of hockey has changed since he arrived in the league, and he’s trying to change with it.

“Guys even get smaller; everything is faster. You always try to get [in the] best shape you can; if you lose couple pounds, it’s always good,” said Hertl. “But just keep working because now it’s a lot about skating and be fast. So, for sure, I will not try to do my best and get better and get always a little faster.”

One of those changes has to be in Hertl’s mindset. This season, he admits he was in a pass first mode. He knows that he needs to get back to shooting first.

“Always a little better of shooting because even on power plays I like to pass the puck and a lot of times I’m missing my opportunity,” said Hertl. “I always think I’m gonna pass, I’m gonna find somebody and sometimes you just make your worse play.”

And, of course, like many of the Sharks this season, confidence is a key to consistency. A lack of consistency hurt his confidence and his game suffered.

“I know I have to be better, too. This season, I think it’s just too much up and down and if I want to be top player in the league, you have to be consistent every night. Like every eight, ten games you can take maybe one night off, but it’s just too much up and down,” said Hertl.

Hertl’s future with the Sharks

Hertl is entering the second season of an eight-year deal that will pay him $8.1375 AAV per season according to CapFriendly. He currently has a no move clause in his contract, though it will adjust in 2025-26 to a modified no trade clause that will require a three-team trade list. In 2028-29, the no trade clause adjusts again, this time to a 15 team trade list.

But the Sharks are not trading Hertl.

The decision to keep the forward was made two years ago at the trade deadline and it was re-emphasized at every turn. San Jose did not trade Hertl. The team later re-signed him to a long term contract. And, when General Manager Mike Grier took over, he traded away the team’s biggest asset Timo Meier. Hertl is here to stay.

That’s not a bad thing for the Sharks in the immediate future. He’s a quality center. He’s good in the faceoff circle and teams could do worse than him as a first line pivot. That said, a one-two punch of Hertl and Couture down the middle does not scream Stanley Cup contender.

The Sharks have a first-round draft pick this year that could translate into a first line center in a few years and push Hertl down the depth chart. That may be the best hope for San Jose. If Hertl’s game stays at the level it was in 2021-22 for the next four to five years and this year’s draft pick develops as expected, San Jose could be in good position to compete for a Cup in three to four years.

Editor’s Note: Over the next few weeks, we will be rolling out the player reviews for the San Jose Sharks. We realize there were a lot of guys rotating into and out of the lineup and some of the key depth players were traded. As a result, Fear the Fin plans to focus on the players that are 1) still with the Sharks and 2) played 20 or more games for San Jose this season.