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Statistical Analysis

Week 12 Playoff Probabilities

With slightly more than a handful of games left, luck will drive a majority of the results.

Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 4/14/13, with change in PP indicating change from 1 week ago. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.

Western Conference

Final Standings Team SAF% Playoff Probability Change Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Chicago Blackhawks 55.33 100.0% 0.0% 76.15 66 1 0
2 Anaheim Ducks 48.44 100.0% 0.0% 65.41 59 2 -2
3 Vancouver Canucks 53.12 99.5% 2.6% 60.32 52 3 -1
4 Los Angeles Kings 56.97 98.2% 1.6% 59.73 52 4 0
5 St. Louis Blues 51.36 93.1% 7.0% 57.83 48 6 6
6 San Jose Sharks 51.99 88.4% -1.7% 56.98 49 5 1
7 Minnesota Wild 48.94 74.0% -12.4% 54.68 47 7 -1
8 Detroit Red Wings 51.67 55.8% 1.9% 52.90 45 9 -1
9 Dallas Stars 48.97 39.2% 18.6% 51.91 45 8 -1
10 Phoenix Coyotes 51.18 28.6% -6.8% 50.62 43 11 -1
11 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.80 20.7% 11.9% 50.57 45 10 -4
12 Edmonton Oilers 45.02 2.3% -18.5% 46.12 39 12 3
13 Nashville Predators 46.19 0.1% -3.8% 43.79 38 13 0
14 Calgary Flames 48.51 0.1% -0.3% 43.24 36 14 -1
15 Colorado Avalanche 48.03 0.0% 0.0% 40.64 34 15 2

(updated 4.13.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 51.09 100.0% 0.0% 70.60 64 1 0
2 Montreal Canadiens 54.45 100.0% 0.0% 65.56 57 2 -1
3 Washington Capitals 48.45 84.8% 22.0% 54.41 48 3 2
4 Boston Bruins 54.02 100.0% 0.0% 65.29 56 4 3
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 46.25 97.4% 12.4% 57.88 51 5 -1
6 Ottawa Senators 52.08 95.6% 10.1% 56.60 48 6 3
7 New York Rangers 53.06 83.2% 9.6% 54.34 46 8 -1
8 New York Islanders 50.30 75.9% 22.2% 53.57 47 7 -4
9 Winnipeg Jets 50.18 46.5% 5.2% 51.13 44 9 2
10 New Jersey Devils 53.46 12.9% -31.3% 48.19 40 10 -1
11 Buffalo Sabres 43.69 1.8% -10.2% 45.66 40 11 2
12 Philadelphia Flyers 48.27 0.8% -18.0% 44.05 37 13 1
13 Tampa Bay Lightning 46.43 0.7% -5.7% 43.98 37 12 -1
14 Carolina Hurricanes 50.68 0.5% -15.8% 43.65 36 14 -1
15 Florida Panthers 48.47 0.0% -0.4% 38.78 32 15 -3

(updated 4.13.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Team SAF% SAF Rank FenClose% FenClose Rank
Los Angeles Kings 57.0 1 58.5 1
Chicago Blackhawks 55.3 2 55.5 2
Montreal Canadiens 54.5 3 53.4 7
Boston Bruins 54.0 4 53.9 4
New Jersey Devils 53.5 5 54.1 3
Vancouver Canucks 53.1 6 53.0 8
New York Rangers 53.1 7 53.8 5
Ottawa Senators 52.1 8 51.1 12
San Jose Sharks 52.0 9 52.8 9
Detroit Red Wings 51.7 10 51.8 11
St. Louis Blues 51.4 11 53.6 6
Phoenix Coyotes 51.2 12 50.2 16
Pittsburgh Penguins 51.1 13 50.7 13
Carolina Hurricanes 50.7 14 52.1 10
New York Islanders 50.3 15 50.6 14
Winnipeg Jets 50.2 16 50.1 17
Dallas Stars 49.0 17 48.9 19
Minnesota Wild 48.9 18 48.0 20
Calgary Flames 48.5 19 49.0 18
Florida Panthers 48.5 20 50.5 15
Washington Capitals 48.5 21 47.2 23
Anaheim Ducks 48.4 22 47.4 22
Philadelphia Flyers 48.3 23 47.9 21
Colorado Avalanche 48.0 24 46.6 24
Columbus Blue Jackets 46.8 25 45.1 27
Tampa Bay Lightning 46.4 26 44.7 28
Toronto Maple Leafs 46.2 27 45.3 26
Nashville Predators 46.2 28 46.0 25
Edmonton Oilers 45.0 29 44.5 29
Buffalo Sabres 43.7 30 43.8 30

(updated 4.13.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

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