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Statistical Analysis

Week 13 Playoff Probabilities: A look at post-deadline SAF% Change

With a handful of games remaining, the fight for 8th in West comes down to Detroit, Columbus (wha?), and Dallas. There is a relatively rare chance that Minnesota misses the playoffs, and Phoenix makes it in. The East is much more clear, with the Rangers likely taking the 8th spot, and the Jets knock

Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 4/20/13, with change in PP indicating change from 1 week ago. Tables are sortable, click on column heading. This week I added change in SAF% and FenClose from 4/1/13 , which is just prior to the trade deadline, most teams with about 7 games under their belt from this time.

Western Conference

Final Standings Team SAF% Playoff Probability Change Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Chicago Blackhawks 55.58 100.0% 0.0% 77.78 73 1 -2
2 Anaheim Ducks 48.56 100.0% 0.0% 64.20 60 2 -2
3 Vancouver Canucks 52.55 100.0% 0.5% 60.64 57 3 1
4 Los Angeles Kings 56.61 100.0% 1.8% 60.03 55 4 0
5 San Jose Sharks 52.52 99.9% 11.5% 59.61 55 5 0
6 St. Louis Blues 51.57 99.4% 6.3% 58.79 54 6 2
7 Minnesota Wild 49.14 85.7% 11.7% 55.60 51 7 2
8 Detroit Red Wings 52.48 52.3% -3.5% 52.89 48 9 2
9 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.70 24.5% 3.8% 51.99 49 8 -1
10 Dallas Stars 48.25 22.8% -16.4% 51.00 47 10 0
11 Phoenix Coyotes 50.74 15.1% -13.5% 50.40 46 11 0
12 Edmonton Oilers 45.30 0.2% -2.1% 46.18 41 12 3
13 Calgary Flames 48.08 0.0% -0.1% 43.62 40 13 -4
14 Nashville Predators 45.97 0.0% -0.1% 42.00 39 14 -1
15 Colorado Avalanche 48.27 0.0% 0.0% 39.17 35 15 0

(updated 4.20.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 50.99 100.0% 0.0% 72.54 68 1 0
2 Boston Bruins 54.11 100.0% 0.0% 63.25 57 4 1
3 Washington Capitals 48.31 85.5% 0.7% 55.39 52 3 3
4 Montreal Canadiens 54.32 100.0% 0.0% 62.35 59 2 -3
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 45.39 99.7% 2.3% 57.83 55 5 -1
6 Ottawa Senators 52.46 95.8% 0.2% 56.66 52 7 0
7 New York Islanders 51.13 95.6% 19.7% 56.22 53 6 -3
8 New York Rangers 52.92 80.2% -3.0% 54.50 50 8 0
9 Winnipeg Jets 50.46 38.5% -8.0% 52.28 49 9 -1
10 New Jersey Devils 54.07 4.7% -8.2% 48.53 44 10 0
11 Buffalo Sabres 43.31 0.1% -1.7% 46.84 44 11 1
12 Philadelphia Flyers 48.15 0.0% -0.8% 46.06 43 13 1
13 Tampa Bay Lightning 46.75 0.0% -0.7% 42.37 38 12 2
14 Carolina Hurricanes 50.72 0.0% -0.5% 41.42 37 14 0
15 Florida Panthers 48.17 0.0% 0.0% 36.28 32 15 0

(updated 4.20.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

  • In the West, the Sharks and Wild have gained the most ground this past week, essentially punching their ticket to the dance. The Ducks take the Pacific crown 83% of sims. Moving them down from "almost certain" to "more than likely."
  • On the other hand, Dallas and Phoenix lost the most ground. Detroit continues to hang out around 50%, which they have been for the majority of the year. This is despite fielding a relatively competent possession team. Some years the bounces just don't go your way.
  • In the East, the Islanders have caught fire, posting the biggest change in PP almost 20% since last week. Although Sh%, and Sv% have played a role, their success has been the result of driving play to a great degree. More on that below.

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Team SAF% SAF Rank FenClose% FenClose Rank Pre-Deadline SAF% SAF Change Pre-Deadline FenClose FenClose Change
Los Angeles Kings 56.6 1 58.2 1 56.4 0.21 58.60 -0.40
Chicago Blackhawks 55.6 2 56.2 2 54.3 1.28 54.40 1.75
Montreal Canadiens 54.3 3 53.3 6 54.0 0.32 53.47 -0.13
Boston Bruins 54.1 4 53.9 4 54.8 -0.69 55.03 -1.12
New Jersey Devils 54.1 5 54.8 3 52.4 1.67 53.67 1.10
New York Rangers 52.9 6 53.3 7 52.5 0.42 53.52 -0.27
Vancouver Canucks 52.5 7 52.4 9 53.1 -0.55 53.67 -1.25
San Jose Sharks 52.5 8 52.9 8 51.2 1.32 51.54 1.36
Detroit Red Wings 52.5 9 52.4 10 51.5 0.98 51.73 0.67
Ottawa Senators 52.5 10 51.6 13 51.4 1.06 49.91 1.66
St. Louis Blues 51.6 11 53.8 5 52.2 -0.63 54.46 -0.71
New York Islanders 51.1 12 51.8 12 49.7 1.43 49.70 2.12
Pittsburgh Penguins 51.0 13 50.8 14 51.7 -0.71 51.24 -0.42
Phoenix Coyotes 50.7 14 50.2 16 51.2 -0.46 50.09 0.09
Carolina Hurricanes 50.7 15 52.1 11 50.3 0.42 51.54 0.52
Winnipeg Jets 50.5 16 50.5 15 50.3 0.16 50.27 0.22
Minnesota Wild 49.1 17 47.9 21 49.2 -0.06 48.32 -0.47
Anaheim Ducks 48.6 18 47.6 22 48.3 0.26 47.25 0.31
Washington Capitals 48.3 19 47.3 23 48.6 -0.29 46.87 0.38
Colorado Avalanche 48.3 20 47.1 24 48.6 -0.33 47.42 -0.33
Dallas Stars 48.3 21 48.0 20 49.2 -0.95 48.85 -0.90
Florida Panthers 48.2 22 49.8 17 49.6 -1.43 51.62 -1.80
Philadelphia Flyers 48.2 23 48.0 19 48.9 -0.75 48.92 -0.89
Calgary Flames 48.1 24 48.9 18 48.8 -0.72 48.96 -0.02
Tampa Bay Lightning 46.7 25 44.8 27 46.9 -0.15 44.99 -0.24
Columbus Blue Jackets 46.7 26 44.9 26 46.3 0.40 44.52 0.34
Nashville Predators 46.0 27 45.8 25 47.4 -1.43 47.11 -1.30
Toronto Maple Leafs 45.4 28 44.1 29 46.3 -0.91 44.94 -0.82
Edmonton Oilers 45.3 29 44.4 28 45.6 -0.30 44.72 -0.37
Buffalo Sabres 43.3 30 43.4 30 44.5 -1.19 43.94 -0.50

(updated 4.20.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

  • The Sharks have posted an incredible 58.5% FenClose over that span. Only to be outdone by CHI,, LA, NYI, and NJD.
  • If someone can tell me why the Islanders have done so well since the deadline I'd welcome the response. They've put themselves into playoff position with strong possession play, shooting a below average 7.3%, while getting strong goaltending at a 0.941 Sv% at EV strength.
  • Chicago has continued their strong season. Inexplicably, in his 6 appearances with the Hawks Handzus has posted a +2, and 0.648 FenClose. I don't know which line he is playing on, and what those circumstances are, but that's certainly much higher numbers than we saw while he was playing in S.J.
  • NJD now rank 5th in SAF, and 3rd in Fenclose, with only a 4.7% chance of making the playoffs. It's possible that a full season would have resulted in a playoff birth for the Devils, but even that wouldn't be a guarantee. They're of the worst PDO teams this season, and even poor (instead of rotten) luck might have saved this season for them.

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