Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 4/20/13, with change in PP indicating change from 1 week ago. Tables are sortable, click on column heading. This week I added change in SAF% and FenClose from 4/1/13 , which is just prior to the trade deadline, most teams with about 7 games under their belt from this time.
- In the West, the Sharks and Wild have gained the most ground this past week, essentially punching their ticket to the dance. The Ducks take the Pacific crown 83% of sims. Moving them down from “almost certain” to “more than likely.”
- On the other hand, Dallas and Phoenix lost the most ground. Detroit continues to hang out around 50%, which they have been for the majority of the year. This is despite fielding a relatively competent possession team. Some years the bounces just don’t go your way.
- In the East, the Islanders have caught fire, posting the biggest change in PP almost 20% since last week. Although Sh%, and Sv% have played a role, their success has been the result of driving play to a great degree. More on that below.
- The Sharks have posted an incredible 58.5% FenClose over that span. Only to be outdone by CHI,, LA, NYI, and NJD.
- If someone can tell me why the Islanders have done so well since the deadline I’d welcome the response. They’ve put themselves into playoff position with strong possession play, shooting a below average 7.3%, while getting strong goaltending at a 0.941 Sv% at EV strength.
- Chicago has continued their strong season. Inexplicably, in his 6 appearances with the Hawks Handzus has posted a +2, and 0.648 FenClose. I don’t know which line he is playing on, and what those circumstances are, but that’s certainly much higher numbers than we saw while he was playing in S.J.
- NJD now rank 5th in SAF, and 3rd in Fenclose, with only a 4.7% chance of making the playoffs. It’s possible that a full season would have resulted in a playoff birth for the Devils, but even that wouldn’t be a guarantee. They’re of the worst PDO teams this season, and even poor (instead of rotten) luck might have saved this season for them.