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Week 13 Playoff Probabilities: A look at post-deadline SAF% Change

Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 4/20/13, with change in PP indicating change from 1 week ago. Tables are sortable, click on column heading. This week I added change in SAF% and FenClose from 4/1/13 , which is just prior to the trade deadline, most teams with about 7 games under their belt from this time.


Western Conference

Final Standings Team SAF% Playoff Probability Change Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Chicago Blackhawks 55.58 100.0% 0.0% 77.78 73 1 -2
2 Anaheim Ducks 48.56 100.0% 0.0% 64.20 60 2 -2
3 Vancouver Canucks 52.55 100.0% 0.5% 60.64 57 3 1
4 Los Angeles Kings 56.61 100.0% 1.8% 60.03 55 4 0
5 San Jose Sharks 52.52 99.9% 11.5% 59.61 55 5 0
6 St. Louis Blues 51.57 99.4% 6.3% 58.79 54 6 2
7 Minnesota Wild 49.14 85.7% 11.7% 55.60 51 7 2
8 Detroit Red Wings 52.48 52.3% -3.5% 52.89 48 9 2
9 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.70 24.5% 3.8% 51.99 49 8 -1
10 Dallas Stars 48.25 22.8% -16.4% 51.00 47 10 0
11 Phoenix Coyotes 50.74 15.1% -13.5% 50.40 46 11 0
12 Edmonton Oilers 45.30 0.2% -2.1% 46.18 41 12 3
13 Calgary Flames 48.08 0.0% -0.1% 43.62 40 13 -4
14 Nashville Predators 45.97 0.0% -0.1% 42.00 39 14 -1
15 Colorado Avalanche 48.27 0.0% 0.0% 39.17 35 15 0

(updated 4.20.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)



Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Pittsburgh Penguins 50.99 100.0% 0.0% 72.54 68 1 0
2 Boston Bruins 54.11 100.0% 0.0% 63.25 57 4 1
3 Washington Capitals 48.31 85.5% 0.7% 55.39 52 3 3
4 Montreal Canadiens 54.32 100.0% 0.0% 62.35 59 2 -3
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 45.39 99.7% 2.3% 57.83 55 5 -1
6 Ottawa Senators 52.46 95.8% 0.2% 56.66 52 7 0
7 New York Islanders 51.13 95.6% 19.7% 56.22 53 6 -3
8 New York Rangers 52.92 80.2% -3.0% 54.50 50 8 0
9 Winnipeg Jets 50.46 38.5% -8.0% 52.28 49 9 -1
10 New Jersey Devils 54.07 4.7% -8.2% 48.53 44 10 0
11 Buffalo Sabres 43.31 0.1% -1.7% 46.84 44 11 1
12 Philadelphia Flyers 48.15 0.0% -0.8% 46.06 43 13 1
13 Tampa Bay Lightning 46.75 0.0% -0.7% 42.37 38 12 2
14 Carolina Hurricanes 50.72 0.0% -0.5% 41.42 37 14 0
15 Florida Panthers 48.17 0.0% 0.0% 36.28 32 15 0

(updated 4.20.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)


  • In the West, the Sharks and Wild have gained the most ground this past week, essentially punching their ticket to the dance. The Ducks take the Pacific crown 83% of sims. Moving them down from “almost certain” to “more than likely.”
  • On the other hand, Dallas and Phoenix lost the most ground. Detroit continues to hang out around 50%, which they have been for the majority of the year. This is despite fielding a relatively competent possession team. Some years the bounces just don’t go your way.
  • In the East, the Islanders have caught fire, posting the biggest change in PP almost 20% since last week. Although Sh%, and Sv% have played a role, their success has been the result of driving play to a great degree. More on that below.


Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Team SAF% SAF Rank FenClose% FenClose Rank Pre-Deadline SAF% SAF Change Pre-Deadline FenClose FenClose Change
Los Angeles Kings 56.6 1 58.2 1 56.4 0.21 58.60 -0.40
Chicago Blackhawks 55.6 2 56.2 2 54.3 1.28 54.40 1.75
Montreal Canadiens 54.3 3 53.3 6 54.0 0.32 53.47 -0.13
Boston Bruins 54.1 4 53.9 4 54.8 -0.69 55.03 -1.12
New Jersey Devils 54.1 5 54.8 3 52.4 1.67 53.67 1.10
New York Rangers 52.9 6 53.3 7 52.5 0.42 53.52 -0.27
Vancouver Canucks 52.5 7 52.4 9 53.1 -0.55 53.67 -1.25
San Jose Sharks 52.5 8 52.9 8 51.2 1.32 51.54 1.36
Detroit Red Wings 52.5 9 52.4 10 51.5 0.98 51.73 0.67
Ottawa Senators 52.5 10 51.6 13 51.4 1.06 49.91 1.66
St. Louis Blues 51.6 11 53.8 5 52.2 -0.63 54.46 -0.71
New York Islanders 51.1 12 51.8 12 49.7 1.43 49.70 2.12
Pittsburgh Penguins 51.0 13 50.8 14 51.7 -0.71 51.24 -0.42
Phoenix Coyotes 50.7 14 50.2 16 51.2 -0.46 50.09 0.09
Carolina Hurricanes 50.7 15 52.1 11 50.3 0.42 51.54 0.52
Winnipeg Jets 50.5 16 50.5 15 50.3 0.16 50.27 0.22
Minnesota Wild 49.1 17 47.9 21 49.2 -0.06 48.32 -0.47
Anaheim Ducks 48.6 18 47.6 22 48.3 0.26 47.25 0.31
Washington Capitals 48.3 19 47.3 23 48.6 -0.29 46.87 0.38
Colorado Avalanche 48.3 20 47.1 24 48.6 -0.33 47.42 -0.33
Dallas Stars 48.3 21 48.0 20 49.2 -0.95 48.85 -0.90
Florida Panthers 48.2 22 49.8 17 49.6 -1.43 51.62 -1.80
Philadelphia Flyers 48.2 23 48.0 19 48.9 -0.75 48.92 -0.89
Calgary Flames 48.1 24 48.9 18 48.8 -0.72 48.96 -0.02
Tampa Bay Lightning 46.7 25 44.8 27 46.9 -0.15 44.99 -0.24
Columbus Blue Jackets 46.7 26 44.9 26 46.3 0.40 44.52 0.34
Nashville Predators 46.0 27 45.8 25 47.4 -1.43 47.11 -1.30
Toronto Maple Leafs 45.4 28 44.1 29 46.3 -0.91 44.94 -0.82
Edmonton Oilers 45.3 29 44.4 28 45.6 -0.30 44.72 -0.37
Buffalo Sabres 43.3 30 43.4 30 44.5 -1.19 43.94 -0.50

(updated 4.20.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)


  • The Sharks have posted an incredible 58.5% FenClose over that span. Only to be outdone by CHI,, LA, NYI, and NJD.
  • If someone can tell me why the Islanders have done so well since the deadline I’d welcome the response. They’ve put themselves into playoff position with strong possession play, shooting a below average 7.3%, while getting strong goaltending at a 0.941 Sv% at EV strength.
  • Chicago has continued their strong season. Inexplicably, in his 6 appearances with the Hawks Handzus has posted a +2, and 0.648 FenClose. I don’t know which line he is playing on, and what those circumstances are, but that’s certainly much higher numbers than we saw while he was playing in S.J.
  • NJD now rank 5th in SAF, and 3rd in Fenclose, with only a 4.7% chance of making the playoffs. It’s possible that a full season would have resulted in a playoff birth for the Devils, but even that wouldn’t be a guarantee. They’re of the worst PDO teams this season, and even poor (instead of rotten) luck might have saved this season for them.

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