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Statistical Analysis

Week 5 Playoff Probabilities

Inching closer to closing this shortened season.

Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 2/23/13, with change in PP indicating change from last week. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.

Western Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Current Rank
1 Chicago Blackhawks 53.86 94.8% 3.4% 65.43 31 1
2 Anaheim Ducks 48.70 86.9% 2.8% 61.83 25 2
3 Vancouver Canucks 54.20 74.1% 11.3% 57.74 24 3
4 St. Louis Blues 52.77 61.2% -1.8% 54.85 22 4
5 Los Angeles Kings 54.94 57.6% 13.2% 53.93 18 10
6 San Jose Sharks 49.32 54.4% -1.9% 53.26 19 7
7 Nashville Predators 48.66 52.0% -10.9% 53.12 21 5
8 Phoenix Coyotes 50.05 50.4% 4.8% 52.58 19 6
9 Dallas Stars 49.43 48.6% -1.6% 52.35 19 8
10 Minnesota Wild 48.44 47.2% 1.8% 51.95 18 11
11 Detroit Red Wings 52.18 42.0% -7.7% 51.21 19 9
12 Edmonton Oilers 47.82 40.9% -3.3% 50.62 17 12
13 Colorado Avalanche 49.13 38.8% 1.7% 50.12 15 13
14 Calgary Flames 50.59 35.3% -7.6% 49.45 15 14
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.57 15.8% -4.2% 45.05 12 15

(updated 2.24.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Current Rank
1 Boston Bruins 52.44 81.9% 4.1% 59.54 22 6
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 52.46 75.7% -0.5% 57.18 24 2
3 Tampa Bay Lightning 47.13 54.7% 4.2% 52.61 19 3
4 Montreal Canadiens 50.42 78.8% 11.4% 58.09 26 1
5 New Jersey Devils 50.73 74.2% 1.2% 57.01 24 4
6 Ottawa Senators 52.10 68.0% 15.4% 55.46 24 5
7 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.80 64.0% 1.0% 54.46 22 7
8 Carolina Hurricanes 50.46 54.6% -14.1% 52.36 17 10
9 New York Rangers 51.40 47.8% -10.2% 51.39 18 9
10 Philadelphia Flyers 49.27 41.6% 6.3% 50.44 19 8
11 New York Islanders 48.59 42.1% -2.4% 50.29 17 11
12 Winnipeg Jets 51.30 39.3% 6.7% 49.37 15 12
13 Florida Panthers 47.50 33.4% -5.4% 48.34 14 13
14 Washington Capitals 49.41 27.7% -1.9% 46.94 13 14
15 Buffalo Sabres 47.16 16.3% -15.8% 44.81 13 15

(updated 2.24.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Rank Team SAF%
1 Los Angeles Kings 54.9
2 Vancouver Canucks 54.2
3 Chicago Blackhawks 53.9
4 St. Louis Blues 52.8
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 52.5
6 Boston Bruins 52.4
7 Detroit Red Wings 52.2
8 Ottawa Senators 52.1
9 New York Rangers 51.4
10 Winnipeg Jets 51.3
11 New Jersey Devils 50.7
12 Calgary Flames 50.6
13 Carolina Hurricanes 50.5
14 Montreal Canadiens 50.4
15 Phoenix Coyotes 50.1
16 Dallas Stars 49.4
17 Washington Capitals 49.4
18 San Jose Sharks 49.3
19 Philadelphia Flyers 49.3
20 Colorado Avalanche 49.1
21 Anaheim Ducks 48.7
22 Nashville Predators 48.7
23 New York Islanders 48.6
24 Minnesota Wild 48.4
25 Edmonton Oilers 47.8
26 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.8
27 Florida Panthers 47.5
28 Buffalo Sabres 47.2
29 Tampa Bay Lightning 47.1
30 Columbus Blue Jackets 46.6

(updated 2.24.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

  • LA regresses, as predicted by their Fenclose and SAF, and looks like the legitimate Stanley Cup Champions we already knew they were.
  • ANA continues to amass points despite being a poor possession team. Every year there are teams that buck the possession trend. At this point, even with regression, ANA has built a large enough lead on most of the teams in the Pacific to finish first in 53% of the sims.
  • I think the SAF is probably a more accurate indicator of CHI's play than their FenClose suggests. They continue to dominate in convincing fashion, locking up the President's trophy in 31% of sims.
  • SJS has a wide split in their SAF as compared to their FenClose%.  Are they the team suggested by their FenClose%, or their SAF%? As we noted last week, they had a limited amount of time in down by 1, and up by 2 game states. Therefore, I would lean towards their Fenwick close numbers, mostly because there hasn't been a lot of change from last year's team. Although its obviously that shipping out or losing depth forwards like Mitchell, Setoguchi, Malhotra (pre-injury), Wellwood .have hurt the team.
  • Assuming the Sharks are what they are suggested by FenClose%, would they benefit form firing their GM/Coach? No. Absolutely not. I still feel TMac is one of if not the best in the business, and have full faith that the Sharks will weather this storm, and still make a deep playoff run./

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