Week 6 Playoff Probabilities

Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 3/2/13, with change in PP indicating change from last week. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.

This week I added a column to the end, “Home/Road Diff” which is the difference between remaining home and road games, positive numbers indicating more remaining home games. I think this helps clarify some of the differences seen in the table. Home teams perform better than road teams. Home teams average 1.21 points per game vs. 1.01 for away teams. I account for home/road in the model, which is why teams like DET and NYR under-perform their SAF.

Western Conference

Final Standings	Team	SAF%	Playoff Probability	Change	Mean Points	Current Points	Current Rank	Home/Road Diff
1	Chicago Blackhawks	57.14	98.4%	3.6%	68.71	39	1	1
2	Anaheim Ducks	48.91	92.8%	5.9%	63.21	32	2	2
3	Vancouver Canucks	53.32	69.4%	-4.7%	56.41	26	3	-2
4	Los Angeles Kings	56.59	60.5%	2.9%	54.47	22	9	5
5	St. Louis Blues	53.08	59.0%	-2.2%	54.45	24	4	-2
6	San Jose Sharks	48.66	58.4%	4.0%	54.41	24	5	-2
7	Minnesota Wild	47.06	50.4%	3.2%	52.78	22	10	0
8	Dallas Stars	50.18	46.4%	-2.2%	52.10	22	11	3
9	Detroit Red Wings	53.03	46.5%	4.5%	52.09	23	6	-3
10	Phoenix Coyotes	50.56	46.5%	-3.9%	52.09	23	7	-3
11	Nashville Predators	48.31	44.4%	-7.6%	51.98	23	8	2
12	Colorado Avalanche	48.23	42.8%	4.0%	51.15	19	13	1
13	Edmonton Oilers	46.20	41.5%	0.6%	50.94	20	12	0
14	Calgary Flames	49.92	32.8%	-2.5%	49.28	18	14	-3
15	Columbus Blue Jackets	45.25	10.4%	-5.4%	43.97	14	15	1

(updated 3.2.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings	Team	Score Adj Fenwick%	Playoff Probability	Change in PP	Mean Points	Current Points	Current Rank	Home/Road Diff
1	Boston Bruins	53.26	93.0%	11.1%	63.11	30	1	2
2	Pittsburgh Penguins	53.19	78.5%	2.8%	57.31	28	2	4
3	Carolina Hurricanes	49.94	63.8%	9.2%	54.04	23	3	2
4	Montreal Canadiens	51.28	83.6%	4.8%	58.77	30	4	-5
5	Toronto Maple Leafs	47.42	70.4%	6.4%	55.34	26	6	4
6	Ottawa Senators	51.47	69.9%	1.9%	55.32	27	5	-2
7	New Jersey Devils	50.93	66.7%	-7.5%	54.85	25	7	1
8	New York Rangers	52.33	46.5%	-1.3%	50.93	20	10	-5
9	Winnipeg Jets	51.24	45.6%	6.3%	50.93	21	9	1
10	Philadelphia Flyers	49.89	42.5%	0.9%	50.64	23	8	1
11	Tampa Bay Lightning	46.87	33.8%	-20.9%	48.64	19	11	-1
12	Washington Capitals	49.46	29.7%	2.0%	47.72	17	14	0
13	Buffalo Sabres	45.70	25.9%	9.6%	47.59	19	12	0
14	New York Islanders	49.66	27.3%	-14.8%	47.50	18	13	-1
15	Florida Panthers	47.55	22.8%	-10.6%	46.53	17	15	-1

(updated 3.2.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

This week I added fenwick close, as well as the difference in rank between these stats. As you can see, SJS are by far an outlier.

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Team	SAF%	SAF Rank	FenClose%	FenClose Rank	diff
Chicago Blackhawks	57.1	1	54.36	4	-3
Los Angeles Kings	56.6	2	59.75	1	1
Vancouver Canucks	53.3	3	53.85	5	-2
Boston Bruins	53.3	4	55.45	3	1
Pittsburgh Penguins	53.2	5	52.03	10	-5
St. Louis Blues	53.1	6	55.73	2	4
Detroit Red Wings	53.0	7	52.81	8	-1
New York Rangers	52.3	8	53.19	6	2
Ottawa Senators	51.5	9	51.32	13	-4
Montreal Canadiens	51.3	10	53.13	7	3
Winnipeg Jets	51.2	11	50.98	15	-4
New Jersey Devils	50.9	12	51.63	11	1
Phoenix Coyotes	50.6	13	49.29	19	-6
Dallas Stars	50.2	14	51.08	14	0
Carolina Hurricanes	49.9	15	51.36	12	3
Calgary Flames	49.9	16	50.63	17	-1
Philadelphia Flyers	49.9	17	50.72	16	1
New York Islanders	49.7	18	49.42	18	0
Washington Capitals	49.5	19	47.49	23	-4
Anaheim Ducks	48.9	20	47.53	22	-2
San Jose Sharks	48.7	21	52.23	9	12
Nashville Predators	48.3	22	46.27	24	-2
Colorado Avalanche	48.2	23	47.85	21	2
Florida Panthers	47.6	24	49.24	20	4
Toronto Maple Leafs	47.4	25	45.81	26	-1
Minnesota Wild	47.1	26	44.99	27	-1
Tampa Bay Lightning	46.9	27	44.78	28	-1
Edmonton Oilers	46.2	28	45.92	25	3
Buffalo Sabres	45.7	29	43.94	29	0
Columbus Blue Jackets	45.2	30	41.27	30	0

(updated 3.2.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

The west is extremely tight this year. With the amount of teams in the hunt, it doesn’t look like the tight race is going to let up. Only CHI has enough points to confidently say their making the playoffs this year, although it would be quite rare if ANA collapsed enough to miss the playoffs.
CHI has increased their chance of the President’s trophy to 45.3%, the next closest team is BOS with 17%. That’s a huge gap.
In a full length season we would probably see a tighter race for the Pacific division crown, as a regression for ANA would be in order. But with a shortened season, and points worth just shy of double, they’ve amassed enough to be clear favorites. Chances of winning the Pacific are as follows; ANA – 60.1%, L.A – 13.4%, SJS – 11.9%, DAL – 7.7%, PHX – 6.8%
TOR has set themselves up for a great finish to the season. They have 4 more home games than road games, which is huge, that’s worth nearly 1 point in the standings itself.
1st round pick in the 2013 draft watch; for finishing last in the league are as follows; CLB – 18.1%, FLA – 10.0%, NYI – 8.5%, WSH – 7.6%, BUF – 7.1%. Take note of teams like CLB, NYI; stripping your team of its most valuable players (ie. rebuilding) doesn’t guarantee future success. Often it results in continued downward spiral. Maybe owners/GM would rather take the chance on draft picks, rather than toil with a sub-optimal team, but I wouldn’t take that kind of gamble. Especially given the current NHL market; where adding depth possession players can have such a huge impact on team success./

Western Conference

Eastern Conference

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Talking Points