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Statistical Analysis

Week 6 Playoff Probabilities

Below are the current playoff probabilities as of 3/2/13, with change in PP indicating change from last week. Tables are sortable, click on column heading.

This week I added a column to the end, "Home/Road Diff" which is the difference between remaining home and road games, positive numbers indicating more remaining home games. I think this helps clarify some of the differences seen in the table. Home teams perform better than road teams. Home teams average 1.21 points per game vs. 1.01 for away teams. I account for home/road in the model, which is why teams like DET and NYR under-perform their SAF.

Western Conference

Final Standings Team SAF% Playoff Probability Change Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Chicago Blackhawks 57.14 98.4% 3.6% 68.71 39 1 1
2 Anaheim Ducks 48.91 92.8% 5.9% 63.21 32 2 2
3 Vancouver Canucks 53.32 69.4% -4.7% 56.41 26 3 -2
4 Los Angeles Kings 56.59 60.5% 2.9% 54.47 22 9 5
5 St. Louis Blues 53.08 59.0% -2.2% 54.45 24 4 -2
6 San Jose Sharks 48.66 58.4% 4.0% 54.41 24 5 -2
7 Minnesota Wild 47.06 50.4% 3.2% 52.78 22 10 0
8 Dallas Stars 50.18 46.4% -2.2% 52.10 22 11 3
9 Detroit Red Wings 53.03 46.5% 4.5% 52.09 23 6 -3
10 Phoenix Coyotes 50.56 46.5% -3.9% 52.09 23 7 -3
11 Nashville Predators 48.31 44.4% -7.6% 51.98 23 8 2
12 Colorado Avalanche 48.23 42.8% 4.0% 51.15 19 13 1
13 Edmonton Oilers 46.20 41.5% 0.6% 50.94 20 12 0
14 Calgary Flames 49.92 32.8% -2.5% 49.28 18 14 -3
15 Columbus Blue Jackets 45.25 10.4% -5.4% 43.97 14 15 1

(updated 3.2.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

Eastern Conference

Final Standings Team Score Adj Fenwick% Playoff Probability Change in PP Mean Points Current Points Current Rank Home/Road Diff
1 Boston Bruins 53.26 93.0% 11.1% 63.11 30 1 2
2 Pittsburgh Penguins 53.19 78.5% 2.8% 57.31 28 2 4
3 Carolina Hurricanes 49.94 63.8% 9.2% 54.04 23 3 2
4 Montreal Canadiens 51.28 83.6% 4.8% 58.77 30 4 -5
5 Toronto Maple Leafs 47.42 70.4% 6.4% 55.34 26 6 4
6 Ottawa Senators 51.47 69.9% 1.9% 55.32 27 5 -2
7 New Jersey Devils 50.93 66.7% -7.5% 54.85 25 7 1
8 New York Rangers 52.33 46.5% -1.3% 50.93 20 10 -5
9 Winnipeg Jets 51.24 45.6% 6.3% 50.93 21 9 1
10 Philadelphia Flyers 49.89 42.5% 0.9% 50.64 23 8 1
11 Tampa Bay Lightning 46.87 33.8% -20.9% 48.64 19 11 -1
12 Washington Capitals 49.46 29.7% 2.0% 47.72 17 14 0
13 Buffalo Sabres 45.70 25.9% 9.6% 47.59 19 12 0
14 New York Islanders 49.66 27.3% -14.8% 47.50 18 13 -1
15 Florida Panthers 47.55 22.8% -10.6% 46.53 17 15 -1

(updated 3.2.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

This week I added fenwick close, as well as the difference in rank between these stats. As you can see, SJS are by far an outlier.

Score Adjusted Fenwick%

Team SAF% SAF Rank FenClose% FenClose Rank diff
Chicago Blackhawks 57.1 1 54.36 4 -3
Los Angeles Kings 56.6 2 59.75 1 1
Vancouver Canucks 53.3 3 53.85 5 -2
Boston Bruins 53.3 4 55.45 3 1
Pittsburgh Penguins 53.2 5 52.03 10 -5
St. Louis Blues 53.1 6 55.73 2 4
Detroit Red Wings 53.0 7 52.81 8 -1
New York Rangers 52.3 8 53.19 6 2
Ottawa Senators 51.5 9 51.32 13 -4
Montreal Canadiens 51.3 10 53.13 7 3
Winnipeg Jets 51.2 11 50.98 15 -4
New Jersey Devils 50.9 12 51.63 11 1
Phoenix Coyotes 50.6 13 49.29 19 -6
Dallas Stars 50.2 14 51.08 14 0
Carolina Hurricanes 49.9 15 51.36 12 3
Calgary Flames 49.9 16 50.63 17 -1
Philadelphia Flyers 49.9 17 50.72 16 1
New York Islanders 49.7 18 49.42 18 0
Washington Capitals 49.5 19 47.49 23 -4
Anaheim Ducks 48.9 20 47.53 22 -2
San Jose Sharks 48.7 21 52.23 9 12
Nashville Predators 48.3 22 46.27 24 -2
Colorado Avalanche 48.2 23 47.85 21 2
Florida Panthers 47.6 24 49.24 20 4
Toronto Maple Leafs 47.4 25 45.81 26 -1
Minnesota Wild 47.1 26 44.99 27 -1
Tampa Bay Lightning 46.9 27 44.78 28 -1
Edmonton Oilers 46.2 28 45.92 25 3
Buffalo Sabres 45.7 29 43.94 29 0
Columbus Blue Jackets 45.2 30 41.27 30 0

(updated 3.2.2013 at 12:12 AM PST)

  • The west is extremely tight this year. With the amount of teams in the hunt, it doesn't look like the tight race is going to let up. Only CHI has enough points to confidently say their making the playoffs this year, although it would be quite rare if ANA collapsed enough to miss the playoffs.
  • CHI has increased their chance of the President's trophy to 45.3%, the next closest team is BOS with 17%. That's a huge gap.
  • In a full length season we would probably see a tighter race for the Pacific division crown, as a regression for ANA would be in order. But with a shortened season, and points worth just shy of double, they've amassed enough to be clear favorites. Chances of winning the Pacific are as follows; ANA - 60.1%, L.A - 13.4%, SJS - 11.9%, DAL - 7.7%, PHX - 6.8%
  • TOR has set themselves up for a great finish to the season. They have 4 more home games than road games, which is huge, that's worth nearly 1 point in the standings itself.
  • 1st round pick in the 2013 draft watch; for finishing last in the league are as follows; CLB - 18.1%, FLA - 10.0%, NYI - 8.5%, WSH - 7.6%, BUF - 7.1%. Take note of teams like CLB, NYI; stripping your team of its most valuable players (ie. rebuilding) doesn't guarantee future success. Often it results in continued downward spiral. Maybe owners/GM would rather take the chance on draft picks, rather than toil with a sub-optimal team, but I wouldn't take that kind of gamble. Especially given the current NHL market; where adding depth possession players can have such a huge impact on team success./

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