The San Jose Sharks have done everything within their power to position the team to pick first overall. The team finished the season with a miserable 19-54-9 record, resulting in 47 points and leaving the team ranked 32nd in the NHL. That’s about the best tank a team can manage.
However, it’s a lottery for a reason and the ten worst teams in the league all get a shot at that number one overall pick, no matter what their record is. Which means that no matter what the Sharks did, tomorrow the team is still at the mercy of those little bouncing lottery balls.
So Sharks fans, before those balls drop on May 7 and we find out for certain the future of the Sharks at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft, let’s take a look back at how many last place finishing teams have actually received the first overall pick in the past 30 drafts.
A brief history of the NHL Draft Lottery
The NHL Draft Lottery has gone through a lot of iterations over the years.
In 1995, the rules changed so that only teams that missed the playoffs were able to participate in the lottery, but teams could only move up four spaces in the draft. It guaranteed that the league’s five worst teams were the only ones with a shot at the first overall pick.
However, some felt this encouraged tanking in the league, so in 2013, the rules changed again, removing the limit on how far a team that missed the playoffs could move up in the draft. This allowed even the 13th worst team in the regular season to have a shot at the first-overall pick. To make things even more “fair,” the league decided in 2015 to institute three drafts, drawing for the first, second and third overall picks and changed the distribution odds.
After a few years of that process, it seemed like too much, so in 2021, another change was instituted, dropping the number of drafts from three to two. It meant only the first and second pick were selected via the draft. In 2022, a second rule was put into place, once again limiting how far teams could move up in the draft.
Currently, there are two draft lotteries, and teams can only move up ten places.
Last place finish, first overall pick
But how often have these rules and changes in the rules benefited the last-place finishing team? Not as often as Sharks fans would like.
From 1995 to 2012, the league limited how far a team could move up in the draft to four spaces. The very first season, the cap on how far a team could move up prevented the seventh from last Los Angeles Kings from moving up. While the Kings won the draft lottery, the team could only jump four places so the Ottawa Senators retained the first overall pick.
Under the rules from 1995 to 2012, the last-place finishing team had the first overall pick 50% of the time (9 out of 18). Of course, there were some weird occurrences during that span, such as the time the Florida Panthers finished second to last, won the draft lottery in 1998, but, through a series of trades, ended up giving the first overall pick to the last-place team the Tampa Bay Lightning. Or the 2005 draft lottery when there was no technical last-place team because of the 2004-05 lockout.
When the rules changed in 2013 to allow any team that missed the playoffs to move up in the draft, it altered just how often the last-place team received the first overall pick. The odds change in 2015 also made a huge difference. From 2013 to the next major change in 2021, the last-place team won the lottery twice. That’s right, two out of eight times.
Since the 2021 change, the last-place team has won two out of three times.
In total, since 1995, the last place has won the first overall pick 13 out of 30 drafts.
NHL Draft conspiracy theories
The numbers aren’t encouraging for Sharks fans, especially because we’re the team sitting in last place overall, and waiting for some bouncing balls to decide our franchise’s fate. They don’t look much better when you start checking in on some common NHL conspiracies.
Conspiracy #1: Original Six teams get an unfair advantage
One could argue that Original Six teams get an unfair advantage. Kind of like when you let your grandpa go ahead of you in the buffet line simply because he’s older. It’s a seniority thing.
That one doesn’t pan out as much as you would like to believe. An Original Six team has won the lottery 6 out of the last 30 times.
Of course, one could also argue that an Original Six team has also won the Stanley Cup seven times in that same time span.
Conspiracy #2: The league loves Canadian teams
This one might have a better shot. In the past 30 drafts, a Canadian team has won 8 out of 30 times. Four of those times belonged to the Edmonton Oilers, a team that picked first overall four times between 2010 and 2015.
Okay, let’s revise this conspiracy theory. The league loves the Edmonton Oilers.
Conspiracy #3: The league hates California teams
This conspiracy theory is, perhaps, closest to the truth. Exhibit one, 1995, when the Kings won the lottery but because of the new rules, we’re not allowed to move up to first.
Exhibit two, 1998, when the Sharks had possession of Florida’s first overall pick, but had traded it. That would have been San Jose’s best shot at a number one overall.
Exhibit three, 2023, when the last place Ducks lost the draft lottery to the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks, a team that shouldn’t have even had a draft pick in the first round that season and probably this season either.
In fact, the California teams in their entire collective history have had one first overall pick. That happened to the Kings in the 1967 Amateur Draft.
Conclusion
No matter what the numbers say, tomorrow when the results of those bouncing balls is revealed, I will have one of two reactions.
One, if the Sharks win the lottery, I will say, “Finally, the league has done something right.”
Two, if the Sharks lose the lottery, I will say, “It figures. The lottery was always rigged.”
Don’t even get me started on what happens if the Chicago Blackhawks win again…
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