Author: Patrick Derm

What Went Wrong? An Autopsy of the 2011-2012 Losing Streak

By Patrick Derm | Feb 20th 2019 | 20 min read |

On February 13, 2012, coming off of a 5-3 regulation win against Washington, the Sharks had a 99.31% chance of making the playoffs given the remaining...

1st Shift Corsi by Zone: The Impact of Neutral Zone Performance on Future Success

By Patrick Derm | Feb 20th 2019 | 17 min read |

We’re not shy about our stance on possession. While it may not be everything, it’s pretty damn close. Possession is critical to success, b...

Expectation vs. Reality: A look at an inaccurate label Patrick Marleau has carried his entire career

By Patrick Derm | Feb 20th 2019 | 12 min read |

Fans always try to rationalize successes and failures, and this often falls on a scapegoat. Most of the time it is the top goal scorer or goaltender, ...

Introducing P+CORP: Points + Corsi Over Replacement Player

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 18 min read |

P+CORP = (P/60 +Avg NHL Replacement Level P/60) + (Corsi Rel + Avg NHL Replacement Level Corsi Rel) / [coeffiecient] + (Corsi On + Avg NHL Replacement...

Defining the NHL Replacement Player

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 16 min read |

In what has become a tradition for most SBNation hockey blogs following their teams withdrawal from the NHL season, FTF has started individual player ...

Control of the Neutral Zone: A Review of the San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues Series

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 5 min read |

The San Jose Sharks have found themselves cleaning out their lockers in record time. What had plagued San Jose’s season was their ultimate undoi...

The Probability That Plank or Taylor Make an Accurate Prediction

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 6 min read |

At the end of each gameday Plank or Taylor predict the the final score and the goal scorers. A question came up in the comments section a few days ago...

The Neutral Zone Battle

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 8 min read |

As anticipated the series between the Sharks and Blues has been an absolute cage-match for puck possession. Both teams have fought for every inch of i...

Goals by Expected Points

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 7 min read |

A FTF late night special. I usually look at predictive stats because I’m mostly interested in trying to evaluate true talent. Every now and then...

Should the NHL Include OT in Tie Breakers?

By Patrick Derm | Feb 19th 2019 | 5 min read |

***Update So I ran the numbers for 2007-2010 and here are the correlations; Variables Correlation Reg to OT -0.08 Reg to SO -0.05 OT to SO 0.10 Intere...