Can the Sharks take advantage of the Oilers goaltending woes?

The Edmonton Oilers enter SAP Center tonight looking for the team’s third win of the season. That’s right, the Oilers are floundering. Two generational talents in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are wallowing on a squad that is watching its postseason hopes swirl down the drain. As a fan of the San Jose Sharks, a team that’s also having a miserable season, it’s nice to have company.

Almost anyone will tell you that the Oilers’ biggest issue this season is goaltending. The team can’t buy a save. Even in this dismal season for the Sharks, both Mackenzie Blackwood and Kaapo Kahkonen have better save percentages than their Edmonton counterparts Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner.

Things have gotten so bad for our friends to the north that on Tuesday, Campbell, who is only one year two of his five-year, $5 million AAV deal, was placed on waivers. The team has called up 31-year-old Calvin Pickard, a journeyman goaltender who has had short stints in the NHL for several different teams but never a prolonged stay. It’s likely this is not a long-term solution.

Which leads to the point of this article. Can the Sharks take advantage of the Oilers’ current situation? It’s clear to everyone in the NHL that goaltending is not the problem in San Jose. In fact, many would say that this would be much more disastrous if Blackwood, and to a lesser extent Kahkonen, were not there to staunch the bleeding. Both goaltenders are signed to short deals. Kahkonen’s contract expires at the end of this season, while Blackwood’s expires at the end of 2024-25. Both goaltenders have easy to swallow cap hits. Kahkonen at $2.75 million AAV; Blackwood at $2.35 million AAV.

Either goalie could be an easy sell to a team desperate for someone to make the necessary stops. Since Blackwood is playing slightly better than Kahkonen and has a smaller cap hit, he’s the most likely trade target. So, does General Manager Mike Grier want to sell Blackwood, and could he sell the Oilers on the idea? If so, what would that trade look like?

Fleece ‘em

There’s the “in an ideal world” kind of trade. Blackwood for Edmonton’s first-rounder this year. The only reason the Sharks would be able to make that demand is that every other team with an NHL-caliber goalie isn’t looking to help Edmonton out of its current predicament.

The playoff teams need that quality backup just in case something goes wrong mid-season. The three teams above the Sharks and the Oilers in the cellar of the NHL – Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks and Ottawa Senators – either don’t have a good goalie to give up or simply aren’t looking to get rid of their top netminder.

If Edmonton is desperate, and you suspect that management is, then General Manager Ken Holland has to at least listen, right?

Sweeten the pot

If the one-for-one trade is too rich for Holland, what if the Sharks sweeten the pot just a bit? Say Blackwood and San Jose’s 2024 third-rounder for Edmonton’s 2024 first-rounder. Does the deal get done then?

In a scenario like this, Edmonton is potentially keeping its playoff hopes alive while trading down in the draft. Admittedly, it could be a very large trade down, but if Edmonton turns things around and makes the playoffs, it’s not as big of a gap.

If you’re Holland, are you really going to let Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl miss the playoffs because you aren’t willing to trade that first-round pick?

Taking money back

Edmonton is up against the cap, so a deal like this may not get done unless San Jose takes some money back. Most likely, this comes in the form of Jack Campbell and his horrible cap hit that we mentioned before.

Do the Sharks make this deal if it’s Campbell and the 2024 first-round pick for Blackwood? I would think if that were the trade, Grier would want something else back in the form of a prospect. The Oilers’ prospect pool isn’t very deep, The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler ranked them 28th. The youngsters that are closer to NHL-ready are already with the team since this Oilers’ team is top-heavy in terms of cap.

If Grier wanted a prospect, he would have to target someone with a projected upside rather than a more tangible upside, as was the case with his most recent acquisition, Calen Addison. Could Grier get Holland to part with the first-round pick and 2023 second-round pick Beau Akey? He’s the type of offensive defenseman the Sharks are looking for, even if he has not proven whether he can use those tools at the AHL level yet.

Taking less money back

What if it’s Campbell (with 25-50% retained) and the 2024 first-round pick for Blackwood? That should be a deal the Sharks consider. Maybe with an added lower-round draft pick from the Oilers tossed in for good measure.

Make no mistake, this deal is about bailing out the Oilers and so the Sharks would be bargaining from a position of strength. Campbell’s salary at 25-50% retained can either be buried in the AHL until it expires, or be much easier to flip to another team since the price tag is so much lower.

Some of this depends on Campbell, who has a list of 10 teams the Oilers cannot trade him to. That clause travels with him to San Jose if he gets traded, which may create another wrinkle in a potential deal. However, it’s still worth the shot.

San Jose brokers a deal for the Oilers

The final option is that the Sharks don’t trade Blackwood at all, but rather help the Oilers get the goaltender the team is targeting. The Oilers have little to no cap space to make anything happen. The Sharks have about $2.7 million in cap space right now, according to CapFriendly, and the team is working on banking cap space leading up to the deadline.

The Oilers may have to move a contract to make any deal for a goaltender happen. Do the Sharks offer up the team’s services as a third party? What’s the fee for brokering such a deal? The Oilers only have a first, second, fifth and two sixth-round picks in 2024. Edmonton has six picks in 2025, everything but the team’s second-rounder.

Does San Jose demand a first or second-round pick to help Edmonton make a deal happen?

Do the Sharks take advantage of the Oilers troubles?

If the Oilers come calling about Blackwood, Grier should absolutely listen. Blackwood has played very well on a bad team this season. He earned the praise of Head Coach David Quinn on Tuesday night, who used the word “elite.”

But goaltenders are fickle creatures. They have a great season only to follow it up with a bad one. It’s a rollercoaster ride with any of them.

Grier should not hold on to Blackwood now, hoping he will be the solution two to three years from now. So much can happen between now and then. If there’s an offer on the table. He should take the desperate Oilers for all they’re worth.