Deep Blue Sea: The numbers look good for the Sharks

Oh, what a difference Erik Karlsson can make.

Good chart boy Dom Luszczyscyn has been previewing every team over at The Athletic in order of points projected by his model. San Jose threw a wrench in his plans when, as he was writing the series, they traded for who may be the best defenseman in the league, bumping them from just a 59 percent chance of making playoffs to a top-eight in the league team, and forcing Luszczyscyn to scrap his entire article.

It is behind The Athletic’s paywall, but here are a few keys points made:

• There is a two-in-three chance that one of these top eight teams wins the Stanley Cup.
• The Sharks still lack true top-line/elite talent at forward, but have an elite top-four defense (with a bottom pairing of Dillon and Braun).
• With Dom’s model, the Sharks’ defense is just a hair better than the Predators, making them the best in the league.
• The Sharks are fighting hard against an aging curve when it comes to Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski in particular, but also a good chunk of the core group.
• Martin Jones is average in the regular season and this is just something we have to accept, but the difference between his regular season and playoff performances is also a real thing (a real thing with a small sample size). Aaron Dell is likely starter-quality.
• Sharks fans are tending to over-rate this team compared to what models are projecting, which I mention only because since when are Sharks fans feeling good about anything? It’s a whole new era, my friends./

Check it out below, even if you have to use The Athletic’s free trial to do it. It’s a very good read.

News & Notes

• The Sharks are now playoff contenders in The Athletic’s 2018-19 NHL Season Preview
• If you’re already on the Athletic, check out this great piece from Craig Custance: NHL stars suspicious of latest data on ideal time to pull the goalie
• Here’s an unlocked and important piece about Flames prospect Tyler Parsons, who speaks frankly on his journey through hockey and combating mental health
• Hockey players apparently really love… coconut water?
• Marcus White continues to be the best content boy, taking a look at how the addition of Karlsson changes the Sharks’ defense group and pairings
• If you’ve got time to listen to a podcast, the Hockey PDOcast dives into the Karlsson trade/

Scores & Recaps

• New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (SO) [Lighthouse Hockey game day news, Broad Street Hockey]
• Washington Capitals 1, Carolina Hurricanes 5 [Japers’ Rink Cap Clips, Canes Country recap]
• Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 [Die By The Blade recap, Pension Plan Puppets recap]
• Columbus Blue Jackets 0, St. Louis Blues 3 [The Cannon, St. Louis Game Time gamethread]
• Chicago Blackhawks 5, Ottawa Senators 2 [Second City Hockey recap, Silver Seven gamethread]
• Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Nashville Predators 1 [Raw Charge recap, On the Forecheck]
• Calgary Flames 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT) [Matchsticks and Gasoline, Arctic Ice Hockey gamethread]/